Week 6 CFB Plays

[sendacash]

California +7

Got to grab this now at the full TD while we still can as I lined this game at just under a touchdown. Utah comes into this match-up off a bye and still basking in the glory of that massacre of the Ducks in Eugene, perhaps one of the biggest wins in program history. Now they are all the way up to #5 in the polls and are in contention for the PAC-12 South if they can get past Arizona State & USC in the coming weeks. We cashed a ticket fading Cal last week against Wazzu as I thought they could be looking ahead just a bit to this game in Salt Lake City. College Game Day will be on hand, adding to the pressure on the Utes but I will take the better QB and the points on Saturday night. Coming into the Oregon game, Utah had only recorded three sacks on the year so if they are not able to get to Goff with consistent pressure, there's a decent chance Cal will be able to move the ball and score on this defense and as always, we want to keep that back door unlocked for the late cover.

 

[mudman]

Bol

 

[sendacash]

Thanks Mud, hope I did not pull the trigger on Cal too soon. Get a bit antsy on those key numbers

 

[sendacash]

Wyoming +24

This line has been steamed a near touchdown off the Monday opener and while I kind of feel like I'm taking the bait here with the Cowboys its too hard to ignore the value. We have a conference game between two teams who know each other pretty well, in fact by their close geopgraphic proximity, they could even be considered rivals. I think there's actually been some bad blood between these two, but that was under a different Wyoming HC. Anways, we have two teams that like to run the football so that clock should be moving and we have a relatively low total at 54.5. Air Force coming off their big game against Navy, so perhaps a bit of a letdown spot and while the scoreboard did not look good for Wyoming against App State, they held their own within the stat sheet. Wyoming has actually won the last two meetings between these teams SU and covered the last 6. Will Calhoun take revenge and step on their throats coming off that Navy loss, maybe but I will pay to see it by this margin. Wyoming is actually on my dumspter fire no-play list, but I'm willing to make an exception here in the case of a conference game as I show the line on this game last season was Wyoming +1.

 

[sendacash]

Western Michigan -7

Central Michigan got a big win last week knocking off defending MAC champion Northern Illinois at home 29-19. While that scoreboard looks mighty impressive, taking a look at the stat sheet not quite so much as the Chippewas were out yarded 316-275, but were the beneficiaries of 4 Northern Illinois turnovers. Western Michigan comes into this contest well rested off a bye and I look for them to take care of business at home in their MAC opener.

 

[sendacash]

Arkansas +17

EVeryone witnessed Alabama destroy Georgia last week and restore order to the college football universe. We cashed a ticket rolling with the Tide as well, but that performance leads to a little extra value here on Akransas in a possible letdown scenario for the Crimson Tide. Alabama also has Texas A&M on deck and their high-octane offense that has given Saban headaches over the years so maybe they won't be totally focused on a seemingly over matched opponent who lost to a MAC team at home? after such a rocky start to the season the Hogs put together a solid performance and on the road while gaining nearly 500 yards on offense and getting their run game going to the tune of 275 yards. This gets something of a monkey off the team's back. They've won an SEC road game for the first time since 2012. They won a close game. And they're back in the bowl eligibility picture as they head back out on the road with some new found confidence to face Alabama.

 

[sendacash]

Georgia Tech +7

We had Clemson last week and felt pretty lucky to cash that ticket as they escaped on the failed 2 point conversion in the closing seconds. The Tigers had a jublient celebration after their victory including Dabo dancing away with the team and I wonder how focused they are going to be this week as they welcome Georgia Tech into Death Valley. The Yellow Jackets, having lost 3 straight games should be hungry for a victory to stop the bleeding and I look for this to be another close game that goes down to the wire.

 

[bobbyjones2]

Arkansas +17

EVeryone witnessed Alabama destroy Georgia last week and restore order to the college football universe. We cashed a ticket rolling with the Tide as well, but that performance leads to a little extra value here on Akransas in a possible letdown scenario for the Crimson Tide. Alabama also has Texas A&M on deck and their high-octane offense that has given Saban headaches over the years so maybe they won't be totally focused on a seemingly over matched opponent who lost to a MAC team at home? after such a rocky start to the season the Hogs put together a solid performance and on the road while gaining nearly 500 yards on offense and getting their run game going to the tune of 275 yards. This gets something of a monkey off the team's back. They've won an SEC road game for the first time since 2012. They won a close game. And they're back in the bowl eligibility picture as they head back out on the road with some new found confidence to face Alabama.

this line makes no sense to me...bama won by 1 last year in arkansas, with a qb, and amari cooper...i was on arkansas then and ill be on em this week..17 is ridiculous..bama off a huge win, and with the aggies next week....yeah, yeah, cry me a friggin river for nick saban " the media had us dead and buried" ..i love when scum bags complain about fairness, nick, tell that to all the victims of crimes committed by your players...

sorry bout the rant, lol...love the razor back play. best of luck with your plays

 

[sendacash]

No worries Bobby, those Saban pressers are somewhat bizarre. Feels kind of like being lectured in the principals office when he goes off on those rants.

 

[sendacash]

Washington State +17

This game comes down to one particular match-up and that is the Wazzu passing attack against the Oregon secondary. Oregon replaced three of four starters after last season, and then in mid-September the fourth (corner Chris Seisay) hurt his foot and is sidelined indefinitely. Oregon ranks 106th in passing efficiency defense, but last week the Ducks held Colorado QB Sefo Liufau to just 25-of-42 passing for 251 yards. It looked like the Buffs had open receivers all over the field, but Liufau is not a very accurate passer and with a bad shoulder, he's below average for sure. Both Georgia State and Eastern Washington threw for over 300 yards on them earlier in the season and passing accuracy has not been a problem for Cougars QB Luke Falk who ranks 4th overall in completion percent at 72.6% while averaging about 50 pass attempts per game. The Ducks rank 113th in the nation in points allowed per game (37.4) and 91st in defense S&P+. Wazzu's strongest attribute offensively is Passing Success Rate, where they rank 17th nationally. This is an efficiency metric that gauges how well an offense stays on pace to move the chains when it throws the ball. Oregon's pass defense ranks 108th against this efficiency measure. I think that Wazzu is going to be able to dink and dunk their way down the field sustaining long scoring drives. Oregon will turn to their run game like they did last week with Freeman and while they will get their share of explosive plays, they wont be able to get enough separation to cover this big of spread. From a trend perspective Washington State has covered all 3 meetings between these teams in the Mike Leach era and the last 5 overall.

 

[indiana]

Send/$...........BOL with your action this week............indy

 

[alkimyst]

Good looking card. Good luck!

 

[sendacash]

Thanks Indy, hopefully these dogs will be a barking

 

[sendacash]

Miami +9

I think that Miami loss last Thursday on ESPN has soured public opinion on the Hurricanes and really put beleaguered coach Al Golden on the hot seat. Golden has yet to beat Florida State during his Miami tenure and if there is any chance of him keeping his job he desperately needs a victory against their in-state rival. Florida State isn’t playing that well either, they were out gained last week against Wake Forest and almost the week before against BC and now it must play without starting LB Terrance Smith, starting S Nate Andrews and possibly star RB Dalvin Cook. I like Miami QB Brad Kaaya over Fla State QB Everett Golson and given that the Seminoles don't have a lot of firepower on offense, especially if Cook can't go this seems like too many points for them to cover in a rivalry game.

 

[sendacash]

Wisconsin +1.5

A Wisconsin loss will all but knock the Badgers out of Big Ten West title contention after only two weeks and I think this is a good situational spot for them to bounce back and get a win in Lincoln. Wisconsin's defense ranks 11th nationally in total defense allowing just 298 yards per game and fourth in scoring defense at 9.6 points per game. The Wisky D is lead by LB Joe Schobert who leads the nation in sacks (9) and sack yardage who had three sacks, five quarterback hurries, two forced fumbles and one fumble recovery last week against Iowa. This has helped the Badgers to a #33 ranking in defensive pass efficiency which is a far cry from Nebraska's ranking of last in FBS in passing yards/game at 353.8. Wisconsin QB Joel stave is no world beater for sure, but I think he will be able to find open receivers especially if top WR Erickson is a go coming off concussion protocol and he did practice on Thursday. The Nebraksa defense has been dealing with some injuries of their own and defensive end Freedom Akinmoladun who leads the team in sacks will be out for this game, their depth should be tested which could put even more pressure on a suspect secondary. The Corn have taken three bad beats already this season and one has to question their mentality here against an Wisconsin team that has dominated them since joining the Big 10 conference.

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

What a brutal beat on west mich. Typical MAC good grief

 

[sendacash]

What a brutal beat on west mich. Typical MAC good grief

I went out for a jog during the Western Mich game and scores.com did not have the update feed so in a way I'm glad I did not have to witness it or know what happened. Sometimes it is better that way

 

[sendacash]

After getting off to a slow start, we rallied back with a solid 6-2 ATS day pushing the season long YTD record to 30-12.