Week 5

[ofred]

Pretty shitty Week 4. Lost 3 out of 4 of the 3* plays. What was I thinking taking Colorado. I watched the first part of that game, and realized I was suckered into the big spread very early....ugh.

YTD: 16-16, -3.04 units

1.7* Oregon State -3 (-118) This line moved from Utah being favored to this. Rising is very unlikely to play, and Utah has a ton of injuries, especially on offense. The Beavers have a problem with QB DJU. Same issues as at Clemson. Strong arm, good runner, but has accuracy issues. But I'll take Oregon State here on a Friday night home game where they will have a raucous crowd. The Beavs do have a pretty nice running game, and the defense won't have to face anything like Cameron Ward(WSU), who was just incredible. Also, the refs let the Cougars get away with murder, holding on every play almost- both on the line and with OSU receivers.

1* Jacksonville State -6 (-114) Sam Houston just has no offense. They have about 300 yards passing total for 3 games, and that is with them being behind most of the time- when teams HAVE to pass. Both teams have solid defenses, but at least Jack. State has a pretty good running game and a QB that can complete a needed 3rd down pass. The total of 36.5 still might not be low enough.

 

[indiana]

Fred.....BOL with your early week action buddy.......
on Ore. St. with you, will prob. add Jax. St. as well....indy

 

[ofred]

2-0 start. Early games tomorrow.

2* ULL +11 (-112) Still not convinced that Minnesota's offense has anything but Darius Taylor for an offense. Their defense has also been gouged that past 2 weeks, and I expect that ULL can also score enough to keep this game competitive, possibly an upset or a 4th quarter loss.

1* Northwestern +27 PSU really proved themselves last week vs. Iowa. But they have also benefitted greatly by not facing one QB that is even close to average. Ben Bryant had a terrific week last game for NW, and I doubt he'll repeat it...however, these early games on the road tend to favor underdogs, and I'll play the Wildcats to at least put up a fight.

1* Arkansas +6 Another early game, another home dog. A&M paid off last week for me vs. an offense-less Auburn team. But the Hogs have a pretty good blend of scoring and passing to keep this game competitive. Besides, A&M has at least 3-4 games a year they disappoint, and they're often after a convincing win.

 

[ofred]

3.2* TCU -12.5 (-114) TCU's defense is starting to gel. WVU has played far better than expected, but they have also been a bit lucky. I don't think their QB situation is going to be tenable as it is. This play says WVU is who we thought they were, and that TCU continues to improved on both sides of the ball. TCU at home, WVU might just have a letdown game.

3* Navy -3 USF is off a great comeback over Rice, and a close loss to Alabama. Now they head to Annapolis to play a service academy, and its oddball offense. Forgetting Navy's opening loss to ND in Ireland, they look okay. They seem to have a better passing game, and should monopolize the clock here at times, frustrating USF. USF has been an undisciplined team for many years, and I think coming off two big games, they slip up here and make enough mistakes for Navy to pull away.

2.5* Notre Dame -5.5 Seems like many prognosticators love Duke in this game, and getting 5.5 points to boot. The books seem to be giving Duke enough points to make them tempting. And I'm a fan of Riley Leonard too. But they are in that public darling spot with a perfect record. ND will be tough to stop when running the ball. And Sam Hartman is an improvement over Drew Pyne. Their D looked terrific vs. OSU, and it'll likely shine in this game. I still think ND will be in the discussion for the NC playoff.

 

[indiana]

Fred......here's to a solid weekend of winners buddy.......
BOL with all your action....
on Ark. and TCU with you....may add Navy as well....indy

 

[ofred]

My mistake. Arkansas is not at home. Neutral site.

 

[ofred]

1.5* Baylor +9 (-113) Blake Shapen back at QB, while UCF might be without their starter, Plumlee. Game is off the board on some sites. I think Baylor is gonna show some improvement week to week, if they can stay healthy. Chance of an upset here.

1* Bowling Green +21 The Falcons have played well defensively, and offensively they have some potential. Georgia Tech has this non-conference game before their Miami game. I'm not sure they can cover 21 against too many FBS teams.

1* Cal -13 ASU is kind of decimated by injuries, and the QB situation is up in the air. The OL has been hard hit. Cal's loss to UW last week was no disgrace. They continued to run the ball well, and have a passing game that is developing. ASU is off an impressive loss to USC, but I think the Trojans looked half asleep in that game.

1* South Carolina +12 SC has the kind of team that can be wildly inconsistent. But they do have a nice offensive game that can keep the Vols off the field. I think Tennessee might just be overrated, beating up the patsies, but struggling against decent competition. Alabama and A&M are on deck for them. Is SC decent comp? We'll see.

 

[ofred]

1.5* UNLV -10 (-120) UNLV has been just fine, except for a game at Michigan. They have a dynamic run game, play up tempo, and should be able to stifle a one dimensional Hawaii offense. Hawaii traveling to Vegas for a 1:00 game, for what would be normally morning for them.

 

[VegasKnows]

GL ofred!
Like those BIG10 plays. And with you on ND.

 

[ofred]

GL ofred!
Like those BIG10 plays. And with you on ND.

Thanks. ULL off to a good start, as is NW.

 

[JBS39]

GL Fred

 

[ofred]

UAB was the best of the early dogs. Dang.

1* Oregon -27 (-115) Stanford's close loss to Arizona might make them seem like they are a competitive team in the PAC 12. Yet, they have problems all over the place, including injuries. The OL has been a revolving mess, and I can't see how their defense keeps the Ducks from scoring a bunch. Stanford attendance has been mediocre, but I do expect a lot of Oregon fans there in Palo Alto. Oregon has also been totally fine with running up scores in the 2nd half.