Arizona's Brandon Dawkins cost me a lot of money. The Huskies defense is very good, but they didn't have a handle on a QB that runs around, gets in space and then takes off. Along with JJ Taylor, Arizona has two very fast, elusive playmakers on offense. Anyways, once again, went 5-2 on my first 7 plays, and then lost too many later plays. Washington and Oklahoma State just seemed like such solid plays…..Now at 24-28, +2.35 units
6* Colorado/ Oregon State: Watched both of these teams play, sometimes simultaneously. Colorado might have Sefu Liafau back this week at QB, and I think he would have played vs. the Ducks IF the game was end of the year, bowl game or something important toward bowl placement. But his backup, Steven Montez, was just incredible. Liafau is better, but this guy took apart the Ducks like an old pro. Not only that, but this Colorado team is so much better all over that they are a completely different team than in past years. If you saw them play Michigan, before Liafau got hurt, you would think they were evenly matched. This -16.5 line is reflecting some doubt that the Buffaloes are REALLY that much better. They are loaded with fast playmakers that all seem to have great hands. And the defense struggled at times with very good Oregon offense, but at many other times, they put tons of pressure on Oregon's QB, and tackled well. From what I've seen, there is no fluke here. Great coach, and now they get a home game finally after two tough road games.
The Beavs… Boise State's defense, in my opinion, is not as good as Colorado's. They seem slower and less able to handle speed guys in space. But still, they demolished OSU in the 1st half. Boise pulled out all the stops…trick plays, some option, screens, every play in the book. Oregon State had Victor Bolden and not much else. In the 2nd half, the Beavs put in walk-on QB Conor Blount, who looked pretty good. But like I said, Boise's defense looked sort of mediocre. Coach Gary Anderson said that Darrell Garretson will start again this week, although if he stinks again, Blount will be back in there. Garrretson holds the ball so long, and with the Beaver weak OL, he was completely ineffective. OSU's DL and middle of the front 7, is also a weak spot. I don't like their chances against a faster Colorado offense. They struggled enough vs. Boise's Rypien, who is inconsistent and not all that mobile. Oregon State's run game has been almost completely shut down, even 2 weeks ago by Idaho State. Look for a 1H play at about -10 or -11.
The Beavs… Boise State's defense, in my opinion, is not as good as Colorado's. They seem slower and less able to handle speed guys in space. But still, they demolished OSU in the 1st half. Boise pulled out all the stops…trick plays, some option, screens, every play in the book. Oregon State had Victor Bolden and not much else. In the 2nd half, the Beavs put in walk-on QB Conor Blount, who looked pretty good. But like I said, Boise's defense looked sort of mediocre. Coach Gary Anderson said that Darrell Garretson will start again this week, although if he stinks again, Blount will be back in there. Garrretson holds the ball so long, and with the Beaver weak OL, he was completely ineffective. OSU's DL and middle of the front 7, is also a weak spot. I don't like their chances against a faster Colorado offense. They struggled enough vs. Boise's Rypien, who is inconsistent and not all that mobile. Oregon State's run game has been almost completely shut down, even 2 weeks ago by Idaho State. Look for a 1H play at about -10 or -11.
I agree, and while I usually fade teams that are big home favorites after winning on the road as a double digit underdog. In this case though, Colorado is just learning how to win again and they like it. A young team that gets a taste of winning starts to work harder bc they come to respect the process. Leavitt is one of the better defensive coaches in the NCAA. I certainly expect colorado to win the game, not sure by how much though. May play them in a teaser bc I have a couple other teams I'm high on with nice lines. GL with your play
Other than the 21 Oregon scored in the 3rd quarter, two of the TDs on short fields, Colorado looked like the better team- in Autzen. Montez, the backup looked great, and although the Ducks D is not all that good, he looked sharp. Liafau should return this week, but that isn't for sure. As in the write-up, Colorado looks like a top 5 team in the PAC 12. I think this spread doesn't buy into that yet..but I do.
Betting Washington down to a 3* Both Stanford starting CBs might be out, but that isn't determined yet. This line opened at -3, bet to 3.5, and now back down to 2.5 or 3 depending on the book. 75% of the plays on Stanford. Will get back to this.
4* Colorado State/ Wyoming: I like CSU for some of the same reasons I noted in last week's write-up. They gave Minnesota a good game despite being outweighed on the lines, and it was difficult for CSU's defense to hold back the Minnesota running game. That was the difference in this game. And the 2 TOs that Minnesota turned into 14 points. But CSU had the ball late in the game, down by 7, and stalled. CSU has found a QB in Collin Hill, and their running game also looked pretty good vs. Minnesota. They also have a wildcat-type QB, Faton Bauta, as another dynamic running option. Mike Bobo, the former OC from Georgia and now HC, has a great offensive mind, and I think this team has improved quite a bit from their opening shellacking from Colorado. That is a large part of this play.
Wyoming looks like they might be heading in the opposite direction. They seem only competitive at all because of RB Brian Hill, but even he was held in check by EMU and Nebraska. Wyoming lost a close one to EMU, a bottom tier patsy of the MAC. But the score didn't indicate just how they were dominated. EMU out gained Wyoming by about 200 yards, and the Cowboys scored 2 of their 3 TDs off of interception returns. I think CSU will challenge them more than Eastern Michigan. EMU gouged Wyoming for 239 rushing yards, easily their best running game of the year. This is where CSU will win this game, and the biggest difference between last week's contest with a much faster, stronger, bigger Minnesota team. CSU is starting their Mt. West conference schedule this week, at home, and they have a an excellent game-planning coaching staff going against a team that truthfully has issues with recruitment to Laramie, Wyoming. I can't see Wyoming staying within 2 scores of the Rams.
4* Colorado State/ Wyoming: I like CSU for some of the same reasons I noted in last week's write-up. They gave Minnesota a good game despite being outweighed on the lines, and it was difficult for CSU's defense to hold back the Minnesota running game. That was the difference in this game. And the 2 TOs that Minnesota turned into 14 points. But CSU had the ball late in the game, down by 7, and stalled. CSU has found a QB in Collin Hill, and their running game also looked pretty good vs. Minnesota. They also have a wildcat-type QB, Faton Bauta, as another dynamic running option. Mike Bobo, the former OC from Georgia and now HC, has a great offensive mind, and I think this team has improved quite a bit from their opening shellacking from Colorado. That is a large part of this play.
Wyoming looks like they might be heading in the opposite direction. They seem only competitive at all because of RB Brian Hill, but even he was held in check by EMU and Nebraska. Wyoming lost a close one to EMU, a bottom tier patsy of the MAC. But the score didn't indicate just how they were dominated. EMU out gained Wyoming by about 200 yards, and the Cowboys scored 2 of their 3 TDs off of interception returns. I think CSU will challenge them more than Eastern Michigan. EMU gouged Wyoming for 239 rushing yards, easily their best running game of the year. This is where CSU will win this game, and the biggest difference between last week's contest with a much faster, stronger, bigger Minnesota team. CSU is starting their Mt. West conference schedule this week, at home, and they have a an excellent game-planning coaching staff going against a team that truthfully has issues with recruitment to Laramie, Wyoming. I can't see Wyoming staying within 2 scores of the Rams.
4* Michigan State/ Indiana: I'll keep this brief. There's nothing really wrong with Michigan State.. Like Indiana on Saturday, their turnovers killed them. But they were evenly matched with Wisconsin, holding them to 3.0 ypc and basically fell apart in the 2nd half. But I like MSU's ability to respond to a loss like this, and on the road. Remember their two wins on the road last year? Ohio State and Michigan. The Spartans looked dominant vs. Notre Dame, and I think we'll see that team vs. Indiana. Indiana lost their 2 main offensive playmakers from last year, Howard and Sudfeld, and their D might be a little better. Indiana is missing their best WR, Simmie Cobb, and likely the right side of their OL. They often get pushed around on the DL, although it's hard to say this year because they've played 3 offensive lightweights, Ball State being the best of them. MSU has the kind of OL that pushed around ND's defense and they'll do the same to Indiana. Due to their loss to Wisconsin, this IS a big game for Mark Dantonio's club. He said there's no panic after the loss, and based on the past, I believe it.
Just noticed that the damn auto-correct in my 1st post had "big" got me. It was supposed to read "vig". Pretty much even in units, but was eaten up a little by those -105 and -110s that give the house their advantage.
3* Washington/ Stanford: It's not just the 2 starting CBs out for Stanford that make Washington appealing. In fact, Stanford's backups are probably capable enough to only cause a small drop off. Stanford gets well deserved respect for coming through in big games. However, they lost to Oregon last year in a big game, lost to Northwestern, and lost 5 games in 2014, including 3-4 that were crucial to their season. So they are not perfect, and this team has its flaws too. Both teams have excellent coaches, so no advantage there. Stanford is very physical on both sides of the ball, but yet they just played USC and a very bruising game with UCLA. I like the Huskies on a short week after playing the less physical Arizona team. The question this game is whether Stanford's fairly poor passing game can help them when facing what is probably the best secondary in the PAC 12. I say no. But Stanford will use their OL and McCaffrey often and that will be effective at times. UCLA gave up 200 yards on the ground to Stanford, but was able to limit the big plays and hold them usually on 3rd down. UW has to do the same, at least enough to give the Husky offense a decent chance to outscore Stanford's offense.
UW has been looking forward to this game for a long time. Maybe that's the reason for last week's tight one with Arizona. According to what I have read, they've been preparing for this game since August. Jake Browning didn't play last year at Stanford in a game that the Cardinal clearly overwhelmed them in. This year's Husky's team is not that team. In every facet of they team, they have improved- even special teams. They have multiple playmakers on the offense, and what might be the conference's best QB to get them the ball. If he's not the best, he will soon be. Though McCaffrey will be the most highly acclaimed RB out there, but the Husky RBs, I think, will shine too. They get about a tenth of the publicity as McCaffrey, Washington has dropped two weeks in the polls despite going 4-0, Husky Stadium will be rocking Friday night, and this will not be an intimidated team in any way. Stanford has not topped 27 points yet this year, is dinged up on a short week, and the emotion here favors Washington.
3* Washington/ Stanford: It's not just the 2 starting CBs out for Stanford that make Washington appealing. In fact, Stanford's backups are probably capable enough to only cause a small drop off. Stanford gets well deserved respect for coming through in big games. However, they lost to Oregon last year in a big game, lost to Northwestern, and lost 5 games in 2014, including 3-4 that were crucial to their season. So they are not perfect, and this team has its flaws too. Both teams have excellent coaches, so no advantage there. Stanford is very physical on both sides of the ball, but yet they just played USC and a very bruising game with UCLA. I like the Huskies on a short week after playing the less physical Arizona team. The question this game is whether Stanford's fairly poor passing game can help them when facing what is probably the best secondary in the PAC 12. I say no. But Stanford will use their OL and McCaffrey often and that will be effective at times. UCLA gave up 200 yards on the ground to Stanford, but was able to limit the big plays and hold them usually on 3rd down. UW has to do the same, at least enough to give the Husky offense a decent chance to outscore Stanford's offense.
UW has been looking forward to this game for a long time. Maybe that's the reason for last week's tight one with Arizona. According to what I have read, they've been preparing for this game since August. Jake Browning didn't play last year at Stanford in a game that the Cardinal clearly overwhelmed them in. This year's Husky's team is not that team. In every facet of they team, they have improved- even special teams. They have multiple playmakers on the offense, and what might be the conference's best QB to get them the ball. If he's not the best, he will soon be. Though McCaffrey will be the most highly acclaimed RB out there, but the Husky RBs, I think, will shine too. They get about a tenth of the publicity as McCaffrey, Washington has dropped two weeks in the polls despite going 4-0, Husky Stadium will be rocking Friday night, and this will not be an intimidated team in any way. Stanford has not topped 27 points yet this year, is dinged up on a short week, and the emotion here favors Washington.
I would have kept it at 5*, but betting against Stanford is like betting against Green Bay. You know there are times where it's a good play, but you never know when Aaron Rodgers plays out of his mind and you're down 24-0 in the 2nd quarter and you're cursing yourself for going against one of the great QBs in the NFL.
