Week 5 Plays (14-4 season to date)

[aiverson]

Plays were e-mailed out Saturday AM and Chicago was added earlier this AM.

Miami +7 (Bodog/5Dimes)
Tennessee -1 (-123 @ Pinny)
Chicago -3


Miami +7

• Chargers are 0-4 ATS since 2001 when traveling to the East Coast to play an opponent who has a losing record. (they are 2-2 ATS when that opponent has a winning record)
• In the last two seasons, San Diego is a mere 3-7 ATS on the road vs. non-divisional opponents, including 1-4 ATS in the first 9 weeks of the season. As road favorites of more than 1 point in these games, they are 1-4 ATS, failing to cover by an average of 4 points and winning by an average of 2 points.
• Miami is 5-2-1 ATS off their bye week since 2001, including 1-0-1 at home. Last year off their bye, Miami held Buffalo to a tight, low scoring 13-10 loss as +3 dogs.
• Miami is 6-1 ATS and 4-3 SU as a home dog of 3.5 or more in a non-division game, covering by an average of 10 points. If home dog of 4 or more they are a perfect 5-0 ATS, winning 3 outright and covering by an average of 15 points.
• A line of Mia +7 marks the 4th largest home underdog line in 20 years for Miami. Larger lines inclued +16 to the 2007 Undefeated NE Patriots and their early season covering machine, +9.5 to the 2007 SB Champion NY Giants, and +9.5 to the 2004 SB Champion NE Patriots on MNF, a game which Miami won outright. In those three prior games, Miami was 2-1 ATS, including a 3 point loss to the Giants last year.
• Teams who were favored the week before yet were losing at the start of the 4th quarter and then scored 12+ more points then their opponent in the 4th quarter are 1-8-1 ATS as a road the following week including 0-7-1 ATS. On average, they have failed to cover by 8 points. In addition, they are just 5-5 SU and have, on average, lost outright by an average of 4 points.

Yes, Miami has a slight bit of value sucked out of them for destroying the Patriots, but clearly based on historical lines, Miami is getting a TON of points here. May not seem like it, but the numbers don't lie - 4th largest line for them in the last 20 years. This line also ties the third largest line that the Chargers have ever laid in a non-divisional road game in the last 20 years. They were favored twice by 10 in Cleveland (04) and SF (06) and covered in both. But they were favored by 7 in Minnesota (07) and 6 in NY (Jets 05) and were 0-2 ATS.

If Miami played this game immediately after the NE game, I would not be siding with them. They really expended maximum effort and came away on cloud 9. But they have had 1 week extra to humble themselves and actually have a chip on their shoulder because many commentators have stated the only way they beat NE was to use the tricky Wildcat Formation. The Dolphins are eager to prove that they can win no matter what tricks are used, and are looking to prove a point on Sunday. San Diego has no chance to relax, and after they really dug deep and brought up all emotion and energy last week to come from behind and score 25 4th quarter points. Now they have to travel to Miami as a large road favorite with the enemy New England Patriots awaiting them at home as soon as this game is over. It won't be easy, and may be ugly, but I'll take the TD and hope for a cover.


Ten -1 (-123 @ Pinny)

First a note on the line. This one is a variety of numbers at a variety of outlets, so do some shopping to get the best line you can. As I type, Skybook and 5Dimes both have -2 out there. I recommend using your own judgement in terms of what you want to buy down to if you can't play at Pinny. My only advice is to not spend more than you would if you didn't buy at all. In other words, if you are laying $500 and you line is -2, lay $500 @ -1.5 but not more than $500. Reason being, I don't want you to be out of pocket more than you would be if the play loses, and any play can lose.

• The last 4 years, the Ravens are 2-5 ATS overall including 1-3 ATS at home and 0-3 ATS as underdogs the week after facing the Steelers
• If they lost to the Steelers in that game, they are 0-3 ATS, failing to cover by an average of 10 points.
• The past 2 seasons, teams who have faced the Steelers the week prior are 3-13 ATS, including 1-6 ATS and 1-6 SU as a dog. If after week 2, they are 0-6 ATS and 0-6 SU, losing by an average of 21 points and failing to cover by an average of 15.
• The Ravens are 4-8 ATS as home dogs on Sundays since 2002, including 1-5 ATS and SU in non-divisional home dog games. They have lost by an average of 10 and failed to cover by an average of 14 points.

• There have been 19 times since 1990 where a team has ridden a 4 game win streak up to it's final game before a bye. That team has gone 16-5 SU and 11-8-2 ATS in that game, winning by an average of 12 points.
• If the team started out 4-0, they are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in their week 5 matchup, winning by an average of 15 and covering by an average of 6.
• Small sample size, but in the first half of the season, teams with no losses and at least 3 wins, heading into their bye week next week are 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS as road favorites
• Since division restructuring in 2002, Tennessee is 5-1 ATS and 5-1 SU prior to their bye week, though this number included 4 games where they were underdogs, in which they went 3-1 ATS and 3-1 SU in those games.
• As favorites prior the a bye, they are 2-0 ATS and SU.
• Teams who have faced the Vikings the prior week are 13-4 ATS, including 5-2 ATS if favored. So far this season, they are 2-1 ATS with the only loss being Jaguars's upset over the Colts

A lot of trends here I uncovered in my research. The scariest one from a Ten backer's perspective:

• Home dogs w/ a line of between +2 and +3 and a low total (less than 35) are 15-7-2 ATS since 1992, and 14-10 SU
• Since 2000, they are 7-2-1 ATS and 7-3 SU, the only losses coming in weeks 13 and 16. Prior to week 13, they are 7-0-1 ATS and 7-1 SU.
• If they covered their last game, the dog is 4-0-1 ATS and if the game is not a primetime game, they are 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS

It is a scary trend to be sure, but looking specifically at the Ravens as home dogs:

• Any home game where the Ravens were lined as dogs between +2 and +3.5 since 2002, they wound up 1-6 ATS and 1-6 SU, losing by an average of 6 points and failing to cover by an average of 9

I will first put out on the record that both of my systems show Baltimore winning this game. However, after studying this game I think if you can get Ten down from 3 (preferably to 1.5) I think it is the play. All Monday Night we had to hear about how great the Baltimore D looks and how dominant they are. And as bad as the Steelers looked and played, and as injured as they were, they still pulled off the victory against this "dominant" Baltimore unit. I also heard Baltimore's Head Coach talking about how they are a "dynasty" in waiting type of team. Big talk from a team that:

• Beat Cincy by 7 at home week 1
• Week 3 was losing 10-6 to Cleveland at home, before taking 2 Cleveland turnovers inside their own 20 for Ravens TDs. In fact, Baltimore's 4 TDs all came from starting the drive at the Cle 12, 35 and 43, as well as a turnover at the Cle 22 returned for TD. Drives started in Baltimore territory resulted in zero points for the Ravens.
• Week 4 beat up on a Steeler team that is not a power that they were in Week 1. In fact, against Cleveland and Philly, Pittsburgh put up no more than 10 points total, yet put up 23 on the Ravens.

As much as anyone wants to say that Tennessee is a "public" team for being 4-0, they are no where near that level where they should be faded just because they have covered well. Also realize, this matchup pits the only two teams who are undefeated ATS, Bal is 3-0 and Ten is 4-0. Believe it or not, the MNF loss in Pittsburgh HELPED the Ten side more than it hurt it. Baltimore really came out and took advantage of Pittsburgh's poor O-Line, and once Pittsburgh slowed down on the blitzing, they could not pressure Flacco, (realize they were missing two starters along their D-Line), and so Flacco actually looked decent. Most who I have talked to see the Steelers as lucky to win, and Baltimore played a much better game. That really helps us here. I see a close game in Baltimore's first real test against a team with both a top defense and rushing attack who can also execute effectively through the air. I look for Tennessee to win this game and therefore I will lay the 1 point.


Chi -3

• Since division restructuring in 2002, winless teams off their bye and are home dogs of a TD or fewer points are 1-4-1 ATS and 1-5 SU. In their 5 losses, they have lost by an average of 8 points and failed to cover by an average of 4 points.

The last 3 seasons, Chicago is 3-2-1 ATS vs. Detroit. Last season, it has been well documented that Detroit won SU in both games and won both ATS. Therefore, prior to 2007, Chicago was 3-0-1 ATS, including 2-0 SU in Detroit.

What happened in 2007? In February, Chicago went to the Superbowl and lost, and we all know what happens after Superbowl appearances. In addition, Chicago was a team in turmoil last year. Losing several coaches, including their DC, losing their starting RB (Thomas Jones), Tank Johnson, and Lance Briggs sat out much of training camp. It's not an excuse, it is the facts. So let's reflect back on those two losses to Detroit:

Week 4 - A 1-2 Chicago team after losing 34-10 to Dallas traveled to Detroit. Deciding to switch QBs, they turned to Brian Griese to start. This game featured two quick scores - a Griese INT returned for a TD, and a Hester kick return for a TD. Griese threw 2 other Ints, and Chicago's starting RB (Cedric Benson) could only run for 50 yards. After allowing 34 fourth quarter points (!!!) by Detroit, Chicago lost by 10.

Week 8 - A 3-4 Chicago team faced a 4-2 Detroit team, this time in Chicago. The results were not much different. Griese threw 4 interceptions, Benson rushed for 50 yards (again), each team scored only 1 TD but Detroit added 3 FGs to come away with the win. Detroit improved to 5-2 and was on its way to try and match Kitna's 10 win prophecy.

The only reason I went into this detail is to illustrate how different these teams are from last season. Chicago is NOT off a Superbowl appearance, they are 2-2 with 2 FG losses against arguably two of the more impressive teams in the NFC right now, the Panthers and the Bucs, and victories over Indy and Philly. Detroit is underachieving and under performing and while typically that does indicate some value, I really don't see it happening this week. Chicago is starting Orton, who has thrown 2 Ints each of the last 2 weeks, but those came against TB and Phi, teams doing very well in takeaways this season.

Meanwhile, Detroit has faced three teams who each are starting QBs who never started a NFL game before this season. GB, SF and ATL have combined to turn the ball over 18 times this year, yet Detroit has taken a whopping ZERO Ints this year and 1 total turnover recovery, a fumble (ranking them last in the NFL). Contributing 6 turnovers themselves, they rank dead last in the NFL at a differential of -5.

The line is not a trap, either. Since 2001, the average line for games in Det nets to a pickem. Chi was road favorites in 4 of those 7 games, and the lines were: -5, -3, -5, -2.5. A -3.5 line here is not a setup, at least not in my mind. It is lined both fairly and correctly, and I will give the FG and pull for a Chi cover.

The only trend that really does scare me is:

• Teams who are off at least 3 losses in a row prior to their bye, who then face a divisional opponent who won the week prior are 8-0-1 ATS and 8-1 SU. If an underdog, they are 5-0-1 ATS, winning outright by an average of 5 points and covering by an average of 9.

It is scary, that is for sure. Fortunately, I can state that teams who are winless and have never covered and are off their bye are 5-5 ATS since 2002, and just 2-3 ATS if dogs of less than 1 TD.

 

[MistaFlava]

you're on fire AI, keep up the good work and lets cash this Tennessee bitch.

 

[Shaker11]

AI great stuff! Thought you were a totals expert but i dont remember seeing any totals from you?

 

[aiverson]

My totals system is doing well, but no really LARGE plays yet. I have a feeling the more into the season, the more you'll see. One total I like today is SD/Mia Over, but I would have to double check weather and have not made the play.

 

[aiverson]

Thanks Flava and Shaker.

3-0 for another winning weekend, brings the mark to 17-4 (81%) for the season.

I'm not about anything other than spending my entire week selecting just a few plays from both my system and my own capping that I think have the best chance to win, and then passing them along to you guys. I'm doing the hard work to narrow things down, I don't want you playing 7-9 plays. Just a few each weekend. Hopefully we can carry the momentum over to next weekend.

My style is not at all about being loud and flashy, it's a professional confidence, but at the same time, I do hope that people are following along and making some money off these plays. I would feel terrible leading anyone towards a bad play, which is why I take this so seriously and spend so much time on it. Every once in a while a bad week will happen, but so far, so good.

Good luck tonight in your plays - in my analysis throughout the week, nothing was pointing towards me issuing a play tonight, my top plays all were yesterday. But if I do find anything, I'll let you know.

 

[Twisted]

Good Stuff, nice day :toast:

 

[rodgozinya]

Thanks AI, very impressive so far, will be waiting for your next batch of winners.:aktion033

 

[Steiner69eR]

Very impressive...keep it up, AI!

 

[jgdwvu11]

Good Job!:drink:

 

[juluvg]

nice day. THanks for the picks. couldn't muster the courage to bet the dolphins though.

 

[Brotherwo]

great job AI. you're truly an asset to this forum and the fact that you do it in a quiet confidence is all the better

keep it up! :aktion033

:toast:

 

[gmoney72]

WTG. I will tail you next weekend!! Continued Success

 

[Broke]

Wow! awesome Keep it up! I couldnt win a NFL game if I tried.

 

[citylinesports]

You have done a great job and I appreciate hearing from you.

 

[thecruncher]

Nice. Extra nice you didn't have to eat that -123 juice with TEN's late 4th quarter 10 points! Is Pinny considered a WAL here as it's not open to US players? Just curious, as I'm always wondering what's kosher or not for posting plays here. I almost wish that theRX would make posters use one set of lines based on the board average or something. The time of the post could easily be linked to the then available line for any line changes. A lot of finger pointing and play fudging would be eliminated as a result.

Anyway, keep up the good work, you've impressed me with your brain and database over the years here.

 

[aiverson]

twisted, rod, steiner, jdg, laws, wo, gmoney, broke, city and cruncher, thanks for the support.

laws - if you click my name and select "visit aiverson's homepage" you'll see where I have all my plays. I e-mail and post them there first before I travel around and post on the various messageboards.

cruncher - Like I said in my writeup:

"As I type, Skybook and 5Dimes both have -2 out there. I recommend using your own judgment in terms of what you want to buy down to if you can't play at Pinny."

And that was on Friday Night/Saturday AM when I typed this, I just didn't post HERE until Sunday AM.

About 2 hrs prior to game time, all books I saw pretty much broke towards Ten and ended on Ten -1, including Cris, skybook, BetUS, WSEX just to name a handful. Others as well. For -110. I saw elsewhere people who wanted to get in on Baltimore were mad they no longer could get a FG. So even a post time HERE, Ten -1 was WA all over the net. Unless people didn't shop around, I don't see a reason they could not have gotten Ten inside a FG with ease.

 

[thecruncher]

It's cool, I was just using your thread to muse on the subject of WAL and my desire for a standardized set of lines here. Heck, I also wish there was a standardized method for tracking records -- using a +/- average bet size tally, to counter all of the large unit bs that occurs.

 

[aiverson]

It's cool, I was just using your thread to muse on the subject of WAL and my desire for a standardized set of lines here. Heck, I also wish there was a standardized method for tracking records -- using a +/- average bet size tally, to counter all of the large unit bs that occurs.

You are right about that. But we do have the tracker forum which is probably more moderated.

As for me, that's why I just try to put up a few plays each week and I don't put down units or anything like that. Unless I say otherwise, I like all plays the same.

Because, my personal opinion (and everyone is different, I know) is that I am posting here, not for myself, but for those who want to follow me, so that's what I'm doing this for. I'll leave it up to them to decide how much they want to put on a play. And I won't put up plays that I think someone should put "1/10th of their standard wager" on, because to me that is just a waste of time. I've got a few plays and I like them all or I wouldn't post them. Whether it's 1 or 4. I don't play fancy team totals or props or factoring ML bets into my record and all of that. I'm playing sides and/or totals and that is it.

But that is the good thing, here we've got all types and some like 1 play a week and others like 15+, some teasers too, so each guy (or girl) can have a thread to talk about what they like. Fortunately, there seems to be a larger % of sharper players here than at other boards, so you don't wade through too much to get what you need. And there always are guys to answer questions, no matter how foolish they may be. It's a good community, I just try to steer clear of the negative stuff (though it is infrequent here), because its just a waste of time. As you know, it takes a LOT of time and effort to put out winning plays (and even some that lose), and time is best spent focused on that.

 

[liftnbet]

aiverson is the man.. class act with no bullshit.. your emailes are money and i greatly appreciate it my friend.. bol to you!!!

 

[DETROIT911]

Were talking about practice man practice