Week 5 NFL Picks

[cashducats]

Cinci -1.5
my reasons below:

1. i know this is a square play and the line stinks really bad, but there are certain times when the public and the wise guys get on the same side. i am willing to put my public money on this and hope the wise guys are in agreement. that being said, a wise guys winning percentage is in the high 50's so...

2. NE has a problem with teams that can get after the qb. this was true even back when they were dominant and the reason they lost their perfect season. pressure on a qb make everyone pedestrian, see peyton in the sb, see brady in the sb vs the giants.

3. the patriots have no explosive players on either side of the ball. what they have is allegedly the best x and o's coach in the game. he's definitely one of the worst personnel coaches in the game.

4. when the patriots play a team that has a good defense they struggle. cinci has a good defense. when they play a good offensive team with a bad defense, that's when they win the shoot out and people say "never count belichik/brady out".

5. cinci shut this ne team down last yr allowing only 6 pts. fast fwd to this yr, and cinci is better, ne is worse.

6. i believe cinci has a good chance to win the sb this yr, in fact, they are my pick to win the sb. if that is the case, they should handle the pats rather easily.

7. cinci is a balanced team that makes few mistakes. they are the best team the pats have played this yr by far.

8. i'm a little uncomfortable with how bad the line stinks but i think the books and some of you are thinking this is the pats of old, where they don't lose 2 games in a row, and they find ways to win. i think that era is over and they will suffer a few more lopsided losses this yr to teams outside of their division. i think the pats end up 9-7 at best, and wouldnt be surprised to see them at 7-9 or 6-10. their roster blows loads. they have edelman and gronk.... wow. gronk will be injured by week 8 and edelman will have 150 catches and barely break 1000 yds for season.

9. dont be scared of the smelly line or the pats reputation of old, bengals win rather easily. i think this line is a mistake/gift.

i would have made the line bengals -7

 

[Dmoemonie]

good write up

 

[cashducats]

10. i'm seeing in some other threads where people are saying look at what tb did after getting blown out by atl. the difference is that tb actually has some playmakers. their rb, both of their receiver are playmakers, explosive players. i order for the pats to win they would have to win the t.o. battle by 2 or 3. i don't think they will do that.

11. pitt with ben "the point shaver" rothlisberger is never a good heavy fave team to bet on. they seemingly have the game sewed up and somehow allow a td drive with 47 sec left. pats cant throw the ball down the field. for them a 9 yd curl is them stretching the field.

 

[cashducats]

packers -8.5

1. short week and packers got their offense rolling. they had a couple of tough defenses to begin the season, now they seem to be hitting their stride.
2. minn beat atl last week which was a huge win for them especially with bridgewater starting his 1st game and sparking the team. problem is he got hurt. if he plays this is bad news, he's not practicing and has a short week on the road. vikings will get blasted. if ponder plays which is more likely, i still think gb gets up early and then the vikings have to abandon the run game which will compound on the vikings quickly.
3. people may remember last yr and the yr before where the vikings with ponder game the packers problems. well, that was with peterson as rb. gb run defense is horrendous, but i dont' think the vikings will be able to take advantage without peterson. once packers open up a 2 score lead they release the hounds on whichever qb is back there for the vikings and the mistakes start coming fast and furious.
4. in summary, a short week on the road against a hot team is bad news for the vikings who are feeling pretty good about themselves after that "upset" of the falcons.

 

[Chevyjsport]

U can't compare with Tampa since Pitt lost it's 3 starting line backers

 

[Chevyjsport]

Vikings can still run the ball asiata looked great

 

[indiana]

C/cats...........nice write ups...........good luck this week...........indy

 

[cashducats]

titans pk

1. are the browns really that good? are the titans really that bad? the odds makers don't think so, otherwise the line would be clev -2 or -2.5.
2. jake locker is back, and titans at home. they have gotten blown out that past 3 games, but against good teams, the colts, the bengals, and ehhhh i guess the cowboys are good every other week at least.
3. beat kc like a drum on the road earlier this yr, that tells me they can play.
4. titans are probably the most ignored team in the nfl, the bucs have some recognizable names, the jags are so bad that we talk about them occassionally plus they have bortles. the titans?? rob bironas was an a-hole and thats about all we know or hear about them.
5. i think they can/will shut down the clev run game making them one dimensional, and then the turnovers start piling up and they win an ugly one.
6. outside of dmarco murray getting 167, they have shut down everyone else's run game this season.
7. both football pools i'm in are heavy on the browns. popular dogs generally dont win, although the titans are no longer favored, i will still take them at pk.

 

[cashducats]

jets +7
1. sd feeling really good about themselves
2. everyone has been killing the jets all week, this is who they are, really bad for a couple of week and then inexplicably good
3. best rushing d vs worst running o (sd)
4. sd d is nothing to write home about

 

[cashducats]

tough beat with tenn. dont understand why whisenhunt would go for it on 4th in his own territory..

oh well, you win some that way and you lose some that way