Week 5 CFB Plays

[sendacash]

Illinois +7(-120)


Going to grab the Illini getting the full TD at home while its still available. I think we are getting a little extra value with the beatdown against North Carolina still fresh in the bettors minds. Yeah they had to squeak one out last week aginst Middle Tennessee, but they came away with a win and perhaps that will build some confidence. Nebraska certainly has had issues defending the pass this year as they rank dead last #128 in passing yards allowed at 379.5 per game on 8.7 YPA. While Illinois did not put up great passing numbers last week, they did have 49 passing attempts and have a veteran QB in Wes Lunt so hopefully the back door will be open like they left it last week against So Miss. Keep in mind, the Corn have a big game the following week against B1G West rival Wisconsin.

 

[Cantpickem]

Illinois will improve on their passing stats this weekend against Neb

 

[sendacash]

Oklahoma -6.5 (-120)

Oklahoma should be well rested coming off a bye and at home. While West Virginia has looked great thus far including last weeks demolition of Maryland, they have been feasting on cupcakes and will face a big step up in class on the road in Norman. I know the Sooners have Texas on deck in the RRR, but I made this line -10 so taking the value while laying less than a touchdown.

 

[sendacash]

Clemson PK

Coming into this season I had pegged Clemson as a go againt team as they only returned 8 starters losing quite a bit of talent from last years stellar defense. Notre Dame came into this season returning 16 starters and looked to be a team in contention to make the playoffs. 4 Weeks later Notre Dame is sitting at 4-0, but they have lost 5 starters to injuries inlcuding their Quarterback. Sure Clemson has only beaten a punchless L'ville squad, but some of the Notre Dame wins (Texas, Virginia, G Tech) are no longer looking so great given those teams respective performances. I think Clemson is getting a little disrespected with this line here at home and I like them coming off the bye with the better QB who can make a statement in front of a national TV audience and get back into the Heisman race. The ND QB will be making his first start on the road in a hostile environment, I think he's going to be pressued into making some mistakes and that will be the difference in this game.

 

[sendacash]

Arizona State +14

I think UCLA's rout of #16 Arizona on the road last week coupled with Arizona State's blowout loss to USC at home has created a buy low opportunity on the Sun Devils this week. Both those games got out of hand due to turnovers, the Bruins created 3 turnovers that lead directly to touchdowns and USC scored TDs after all four Arizona State turnvoers in the first half. This is a bit of a revenge spot for the Sun Devils as they were blasted by UCLA last year in Tempe 62-27. There are some injury concerns with this Bruins defense as they have lost linebacker Myles Jack, defensive lineman Eddie Vaderdoes and potential first round pick Fabian Moreau and allowed 353 rushing yards to Arizona last week. I think Arizona State has enough here to keep it within two touchdowns.

 

[cloverleaf]

Oklahoma -6.5 (-120)

Oklahoma should be well rested coming off a bye and at home. While West Virginia has looked great thus far including last weeks demolition of Maryland, they have been feasting on cupcakes and will face a big step up in class on the road in Norman. I know the Sooners have Texas on deck in the RRR, but I made this line -10 so taking the value while laying less than a touchdown.

Stoops has a pattern of winning at home before going on the road for back to back games. He's 11-0 against the spread in these type situations. Oklahoma will travel to Texas and Kansas State after Saturday's home game against West Virginia.

 

[smartmoneyfollower]

Arizona State looked really bad last week, I know UCLA lost its best defender, but like Kelso Sturgeon in the 80s once said "dont ask a bad team to win for you"

 

[sendacash]

Stoops has a pattern of winning at home before going on the road for back to back games. He's 11-0 against the spread in these type situations. Oklahoma will travel to Texas and Kansas State after Saturday's home game against West Virginia.

That's something I have not looked at before Clover, wonder if that is just weird randomess or if there is some sort of logical explanation? Forgot to mention this will be the Mountaineers first road trip away from West Virginia this season. Hopefully Oklahoma does not let us down like they did so often last season.

 

[sendacash]

Arizona State looked really bad last week, I know UCLA lost its best defender, but like Kelso Sturgeon in the 80s once said "dont ask a bad team to win for you"

I know what you are saying SMF, but is UCLA really that good? This is the same team that BYU had on the ropes just two weeks ago right. Arizona St. seems to certainly had to issues with ball security having fumbled 13 times already (ranked #126) while losing 7 of those fumbles.

 

[sendacash]

Washington State +19

I show this line on Monday around Cal -15.5 and has been steamed all the way up to -19 as of Wednesday night. Just taking the value here in what looks like too many points to lay as Cal has had a lot of trouble with Mike Leach's Air Raid, surrendering 44 points in 2013 and 59 points in 2014. While Cal’s defense has improved, it’ll have a tough time limiting a Cougars passing attack that ranks ninth nationally. Connor Halliday may be gone, but the Cougars’ aerial assault remains a staple. QB Luke Falk is 111 of 152 for 1,070 yards and eight touchdowns with one interception. That he ranks seventh nationally in completion percentage is especially notable, given that Falk averages 50.7 passes per game. For whatever reason, all three of WSU's wins over FBS teams since the 2013 season have come away from Pullman. The Cougars seem to play better on the road, and that trend appears to be continuing this year considering the home opening loss to Portland state. Texas QB Jerrod Heard was able to go 20-31 for 364 yards against this Bears defense on 11.7 YPA so I think there's a good chance for the back door to be unlocked and we all know that old pirate Mike Leach is going to keep firing away until he's out of ammo.

 

[sendacash]

Colorado +7.5

89% on the Ducks and the line moves from 10.5 to 7.5. Might be somewhat of a homer, but can't ignore the RLM.

 

[KDawgg]

Very similar to my card...like it. Also on Okl, Asu (large) and Was St.

Huge long 2 game road trip for Cal @Tex and @UW. Lots of Nfl draft talk in Berkeley with Goff and Lawler. Tough spot with an underrated W st that plays well on the road. Cals soft dbs and lack of depth will give up 400 passing yds.

In short, sell high on ucla and buy low on asu. Ucla's impressive start is against Ari and Byu who both just got blown out. Asu played a tough TexAM, Usc and an underrated NM.

I see the rlm and public $ but Im on Ore though. Even if Ore is wayyy down, they can cover this @ Col. Seems like folks are jumping off the bandwagon and want to have bragging rights about being an early adapter of the Oregon falloff. Ill pay to see the cards. Ore by 17+ imo.
G/L

 

[sendacash]

KD, While I look into various ways of capping games, the RLM is still the foundation of how I cap games. I have to make this play because the % are so ridiculous

 

[oatiko]

I got wash st. at +17.5 now....

 

[sendacash]

I think its still good Oatiko as I made this line Cal -12, although admittedly I probably have not adjusted up enough on the Bears this season.

 

[sendacash]

Alabama +1.5

I think this game is a case where you have to ignore your power ratings and just take a look at the football match-up. In this particular game in my opinion favors Alabama for several reasons. Georgia's strength on offense is the inside running of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, however this plays right into the strength of the Alabama defense who are ranked 3rd against the rush allowing only 1.97 YPR. Alabama is 39-6 over the last three-pus seasons and all six of those losses have come against teams with an up-tempo style. Nick Saban has made no secret about his distaste for defending those kinds of offenses. As he's stated on several occasions, snapping the ball quickly prevents defensive coaches from making adjustments during a drive and greatly reduces the impact they can have on a game relative to offensive coaches. Georgia, however, ranks 83rd in the FBS with 26.3 seconds of possession time per offensive play. A common trait among the up-tempo teams that have given Alabama fits in recent years is the mobile quarterback. In the Tide's last six losses, opposing quarterbacks have averaged four rushing first downs per game, and half of those came on third-down plays. Georgia QB Grayson Lambert, however, is not that type of running threat. Finally, we have to take a look at the coaching match-up as well and again I say the advantage goes to the Crimson Tide as I simply don't trust Georgia coach Richt in a game of this magnitude and prefer Nick Saban in a situation where their season is on the line.

 

[sendacash]

Iowa +6 (-102)

This is an old Big Ten rivalry and battle for the Heartland Trophy, but more importantly its shaping up to be a de facto Big Ten West title game. Iowa's rushing defense is among the best in the Big Ten. Iowa ranks fourth in the Big Ten in total rush defense. Through four games -- all wins -- the Hawkeyes have allowed an average of 84 rushing yards per game and no touchdowns on the ground. Their opponents' yards-per-carry average of 2.6 is tied with Michigan for best in the conference. On Saturday, that may present a challenge for the run heavy Badgers who will be without junior running back Corey Clement once again. Wisconsin (3-1) topped 200 yards on the ground for the first time this season last Saturday and has posted three rushing touchdowns in each of its last three games, however those games have come against Miami Ohio, Troy, and Hawaii. Wisconsin now sits ninth in the conference at 188.3 rushing yards per game, thanks in large part to Taiwan Deal's 147-yard, two-touchdown performance against Hawaii. Deal, who earned Big Ten freshman of the week honors after surpassing his three-game total of 143 yards, heads an inexperienced rushing attack behind an offensive line with three new starters. Iowa quarterback C.J. Beathard ranks first in the Big Ten in passing efficiency and third in pass yards per game (240.5). He is completing 68.2 percent of his passes for 962 yards with six touchdowns and one interception. The junior is also a threat with his feet. Remove sacks from the equation and Beathard, the grandson of former NFL executive Bobby Beathard, is averaging 8.3 yards per carry. The similarities between the programs have led to some close contests in recent years — such as UW’s two-point win last season and its one-point victory in 2010. In fact, the road team has won four in a row in the series dating back to the most recent time UW hosted Iowa — a 20-10 win for the Hawkeyes in 2009. While Wisconsin has beaten Iowa in five of the last seven meetings, six of the last eight games overall between these two have been decided by 10 or less points. The Hawkeyes are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and I look for them to get the job done once again in Madison.

 

[sendacash]

Been a great day thus far, if my Buffs could get a win here it would be a day to remember.

 

[sendacash]

The Buffs couldn't get it done once again, but it was still a great day going 7-1. Brings the season record to 24-10 YTD and we are on to week 6.

 

[groundhog11]

Great job sendacash...