UCLA -3
With UCLA sitting at 0-3 ATS on this young season the bettors have been soured by their performance thus far and maybe that has created some value? Looking back now at some of their opponents in the games they were criticized for winning but not covering, maybe Virginia (4-0 ATS) and Memphis (3-0 ATS) are a little bit better than people thought? Virginia could have easily won that game at BYU last week. Now I know everyone loves the Thursday night home dog and that's usually the way I lean myself, but the only reason they are the dog here is because their talented QB Kelly will be out. I think Az St would be around a 2.5-3 point favorite if Kelly was playing, now some may think a 5-6 point swing is too much for Kelly's absence, but when it swings around the 0 its not as big a deal with some of those dead numbers. So what I'm thinking here is to just pick the SU winner of this game and I think UCLA with revenge, and with a big edge in returning starters will win this game tonight. I know UCLA has o-line issues, but can Az St. really do enough to exploit them? The Devils like to blitz, but rank only 57th in sack percentage. What do you do against a team that likes to blitz? You run right at them like Colorado did to the tune of 545 total yards and were out-gained by a Buffs team that's still trying to find their way on offense by over 100 yards.
With UCLA sitting at 0-3 ATS on this young season the bettors have been soured by their performance thus far and maybe that has created some value? Looking back now at some of their opponents in the games they were criticized for winning but not covering, maybe Virginia (4-0 ATS) and Memphis (3-0 ATS) are a little bit better than people thought? Virginia could have easily won that game at BYU last week. Now I know everyone loves the Thursday night home dog and that's usually the way I lean myself, but the only reason they are the dog here is because their talented QB Kelly will be out. I think Az St would be around a 2.5-3 point favorite if Kelly was playing, now some may think a 5-6 point swing is too much for Kelly's absence, but when it swings around the 0 its not as big a deal with some of those dead numbers. So what I'm thinking here is to just pick the SU winner of this game and I think UCLA with revenge, and with a big edge in returning starters will win this game tonight. I know UCLA has o-line issues, but can Az St. really do enough to exploit them? The Devils like to blitz, but rank only 57th in sack percentage. What do you do against a team that likes to blitz? You run right at them like Colorado did to the tune of 545 total yards and were out-gained by a Buffs team that's still trying to find their way on offense by over 100 yards.
