Week 5: Another Giant Go Against

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Last week the Cougs gave Oregon all they could handle. +23.5 was an inflated number on a weaker Duck team. it's not LAST year. With last week's winnings now YTD: 21-21. -1.83 units

NC State +18.5 (-110) 2 units. Some similarities to the Oregon/ WSU game. NC State is playing this game for the upset, not for respectability. They finally have a QB who is a very capable passer(at about 70%) and has decent mobility. That, a running game and good coaching- along with a home game- are often a recipe for an upset. NC St. is being panned for playing crummy teams, but they are definitely a better team now than the one that squeaked by GSU in their first game. NC State will get creative offensively knowing they don't stand a chance otherwise.

Another similarity is that FSU does not look as dominating as last year- in just about every aspect of their game. Their running game looks terrible mostly, their OL has not been able to sustain blocks, and Winston (when he's in there and not being a fool even looks less Heisman-like). Clemson clearly outplayed them, should have won, and FSU barely escaped the OK.ST. Game. Maybe they are like Super Bowl teams that lack the hunger the following year, and almost always regress. Anyways, last year they made it look easy. Now they sometimes look like a fat Elvis- past their peak. If FSU covers this it will be with their defense which can still bring it. However, even their vaunted D gives up sustained drives and big plays, which rarely happened last year. I mostly like this game because I can see the steady improvement in the Wolfpack offense and that they can pass effectively.
 

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TCU -31.5 (-105) 2 units. A major part of this play is that I believe SMU might have the worst QB situation in the FBS. Their starter, Burcham, was pretty bad, but he's out for the year with an elbow injury. Their true fresh was so inept last week that he got pulled in the 2nd quarter. Now they have their 3rd stringer in there, a walk on. I watched them play A&M last week and it was ugly. The Aggies were on cruise control, and it didn't look like they were even giving their all. With TCU's defense which is likely to cause turnovers(5 vs. Minn. last game) and coming off a bye, I can see 4 quarters of a complete mismatch. SMU also hasn't scored one point this year in a meaningful part of any of their games. All 3 scores were in garbage time.

Someone will come on here and tell me never to bet rivalry games with big favorites. But this rivalry is dead for this year. TCU has a chance to paste their DFW rivals in a game that might not be much of a home game for SMU. Their attendance has been poor anyways, and I have a feeling a lot of those empty seats will be filled by TCU fans. June Jones knew this was going to be a dreadful year, talking about the lower tier teams playing a spring schedule(ravings of a hopeless man), but I think he quit because he didn't want to see how far his team would fall. I haven't even touched upon their somewhat horrid defense, but really it's their QB play that will doom this year.
 

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Looks good, think I will tail that TCU play as I need to cash a ticket against these hapless teams like SMU before it is too late.
 

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Thinking the same. SMU might be at +40 or more down the line.

Wyoming +28.5 (-110) one unit. Wyoming might be the overachiever team of the year so far. I can see why Bohl was so successful at ND St. His team plays hard and smart, is rarely penalized, and was not at all intimidated at Oregon. Bohl has got these guys believing even though the talent is limited. 3-1 in a season after their star QB leaves has got to be a strong motivator. At Oregon they were only out yarded by about 115 yards, and that was against an offense that was impossible to prepare for. MSU's offense is more pro like Wyoming's and easier to practice for. MSU also does not have the blinding speed of Oregon's offense. MSU huddles up, further reducing some clock to score. Wyoming has been very good at sustaining at least 4-5 drives per game and getting some points. Also, don't be fooled by MSU's crushing of Eastern Mich. SMU might have the worst QB, but EMU might have the worst team in the country. In their lowlights vs. Florida and MSU, it looked like no one on their D can tackle.
 

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Fred............like the plays...........good luck this week end............indy
 

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Thanks. Good luck to you. I doubt I'll have any more college plays. Too busy and internet connection is spotty.
 

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I personally like TCU but gonna tease it with a few other games. Yeah, you forgot to mention that SMU is actually considering dropping their football program (on their own this time, lol). The fly in the ointment is TCU has the Sooners on deck the 4th, so I'm not sure Patterson is willing to go for the jugular here. Just some considerations. GL

~T~
 

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I think Ok on deck would be more of a factor if they weren't coming off a bye. Patterson might get overly conservative, but I think the turnover margin and short fields for the TCU offense will rule the day. The SMU offense is so bad that TCU's defense will also get sacks and QB pressure all day.
 

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TCU won't be coming off a bye, they play the Sooners next week. I'm thinking that plus Patterson is a really good guy, realizing his cross-town rival is about to give up the ship, might not be willing to let his team stomp them. Not slamming the play, like I said, initially I liked it but then the "mental stuff" came to light. GL Fred.

~T~
 

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I meant coming off a bye to play SMU. I know you're not slamming it, and appreciate the input. Patterson has plenty of blowouts in the past vs. inferior teams and maybe he'll get the job done early. Maybe the 1st half is a good play, but I'm being careful about which half TCU really dominates. They might only lead by 14-17 in the 1st half and not cover, and then take off in the 3rd quarter.

I'm really playing the hopeless SMU QB big in this game vs. an aggressive and fast defense- that's my angle.
 
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Gluck Fred. Very interested to see the team totals in the TCU game. If SMU is at 9 I'm hammering the under but it will prob be around 7.5-8 how's their FG kicker? Hmmm
 

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I think the under may be the safer play. Can't see TCU running it up too high with OU on deck, and can't see SMU scoring at all.
 

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I think the under may be the safer play. Can't see TCU running it up too high with OU on deck, and can't see SMU scoring at all.

Problem with that is SMU has allowed 58, 43 and 45 first three games. They're averaging 4 a game and total is 48. TCU isn't gonna put the 58 up that A&M did, so now you'd be "RCH'ing" that total. Too close for my bankroll.

~T~
 

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I am with ya on NC State I have not pulled the trigger yet but its def on my sheet as a possible play for the PM.
 

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Last week the Cougs gave Oregon all they could handle. +23.5 was an inflated number on a weaker Duck team. it's not LAST year. With last week's winnings now YTD: 21-21. -1.83 units

NC State +18.5 (-110) 2 units. Some similarities to the Oregon/ WSU game. NC State is playing this game for the upset, not for respectability. They finally have a QB who is a very capable passer(at about 70%) and has decent mobility. That, a running game and good coaching- along with a home game- are often a recipe for an upset. NC St. is being panned for playing crummy teams, but they are definitely a better team now than the one that squeaked by GSU in their first game. NC State will get creative offensively knowing they don't stand a chance otherwise.

Another similarity is that FSU does not look as dominating as last year- in just about every aspect of their game. Their running game looks terrible mostly, their OL has not been able to sustain blocks, and Winston (when he's in there and not being a fool even looks less Heisman-like). Clemson clearly outplayed them, should have won, and FSU barely escaped the OK.ST. Game. Maybe they are like Super Bowl teams that lack the hunger the following year, and almost always regress. Anyways, last year they made it look easy. Now they sometimes look like a fat Elvis- past their peak. If FSU covers this it will be with their defense which can still bring it. However, even their vaunted D gives up sustained drives and big plays, which rarely happened last year. I mostly like this game because I can see the steady improvement in the Wolfpack offense and that they can pass effectively.

i like this play a lot! When are you posting your NFL plays? Stellar capping last Sunday. Thanks!
 

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2nd half fumble changed NC St's momentum. Still, they were in it until the 4th quarter. An ATS win. YTD: 23-22 + 1.07 units.
 

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