Week 4

[ofred]

The last post on my Week 3 thread stated that "Altmyer sucks". Couldn't agree more. 4 interceptions and a 5-0 TO edge to Penn State pretty much sealed that loss.

YTD: 10-10, +1.21 unit

1* CCU/ Georgia St.- over 62 These Sun Belt games, featuring two quality QBs usually end up being high scoring. Grainger and McCall are 1 and 2 QBs statistically in the Sun Belt Conf. Both have passed for around 65-70% accuracy, have good wheels, and have plenty of good skill players to get the ball to. It also seems that the G5 conferences have lots of quick, fast receivers, RBs, etc.- but lack the defensive players to offset them. Weather should be fine.

 

[Coaster]

I'm on it!
Score you bastards.

 

[VegasKnows]

I have a little fun degen parlay, Over tonight and Wisc/Purdue Over.
Lets see some of that weekday madness!

 

[one51rum]

gl one of my 1st this week

 

[ofred]

Up to 63...might be a good sign.

 

[ofred]

1* SD State +6.5 The Aztecs, like Boise, have started the season kind of poorly. However, the Mt. West Conf. looks down this season overall. Both have QBs that have accuracy issues, and both QBs can run. In recent years, Boise has struggled vs. the better teams in their conference, and in bowl games. They just aren't getting the same caliber of talent as 3-5 years ago. SD State played pretty good D last week @ Oregon State. Boise's D got carved up vs. both UW and UCF. Boise also has some injury issues of key players. Home team Aztecs have a decent chance to win...so taking the points.

 

[ofred]

Coastal Carolina looked far too conservative last night, but it's only 1 unit.

3* Ole Miss +7 No one can imagine Alabama going 2-2, and losing two games at home already. I can. Their offense will struggle to move the ball here as they don't have the OL or run game as in past years. The passing game likewise. Even the defense is down a bit. Ole Miss will have some surprises on both sides of the ball, and has a decent chance at an upset. Contain Milroe in the pocket and force him to pass. Ole Miss has benefitted from the portal, as usual, and has good depth on both sides of the ball.

3* Northwestern +11 Taking the home team vs. an offense that has serious QB issues. Northwestern has gotten over the shock, somewhat, from their coaching/hazing issues, and actually has some talent on offense.

3* Colorado +21.5 (-114) Colorado, like Texas Tech, will challenge this Duck defense. Oregon's games with Portland State and Hawaii were ridiculous measures of where they are. Their stats are inflated because of it. I'm not sure how well Colorado will hold up in run defense, but their passing game should allow them to keep possession and score 3-4 times.

3* MTSU -3 (-120) CSU coming off their Colorado game could be in trouble. All the hype, the trash-talking, the rivalry...and now travel to Tennessee to play a team that most of the CSU players never heard of. CSU also has a poor D, while I really like this MTSU QB. He's one of those gym rats that can make plays when needed. MTSU has a better defense than CSU, and really will be focused in this much needed home game.

 

[ofred]

1.5* Vanderbilt +13 Early games seem to favor the home underdogs, and this looks like that kind of game. Vanderbilt has a pretty good QB, and an offense that can keep Kentucky off the field. Not sure how well Vandy will hold up defensively, but Mark Stoops' Kentucky teams havea habit of playing down to the competition, and have a couple of head-scratching losses each season.

1.5* Army +13 Another early game. Syracuse looked pretty good last week vs. a rebuilding Purdue team. Garrett Shrader ran the ball 25 times, which seems crazy considering his value to his team. Any wear and tear? With Clemson on deck, and Army being an odd-duck offense and non-conference, maybe a letdown for the Orange. Syracuse might be just happy with a win of any kind.

1.5* Iowa +14.5 Iowa easily is the best defense Drew Allar has seen. Though PSU seems loaded all over, they also have had a number of surprising losses under Franklin. Iowa's D is good at causing turnovers, and Cade Mcnamara is an improvement over the Iowa QBs of the past few years. Seems like a lot of points, and we really don't know how good this PSU team is. Without a 5-0 TO edge last week, that game would have been close instead of a 17 point PSU win.

 

[ofred]

2* Texas A&M -8 Always hesitant to bet on the Aggies. Under JImbo they have usually played below their talent level. However, they do have a boisterous home crowd, a QB that looks like the real deal, and a defense that should limit Auburn's offense. Auburn hasn't been able to run the ball too well, Thorne has only looked good vs. Samford, and they have many injuries.

1.5* Louisiana Tech +21 Another play vs. a weak offensive team. Nebraska doesn't have any good options at QB, and even against a LT defense that is pretty bad, they will sometimes struggle to move the ball. LT also has enough of an offense to score 2-3 times and keep possession. Nebraska has Michigan on deck, and I just can't see them covering this large spread if they keep their playbook limited. Nebraska doesn't have the talent gap with LT here that you might think.

 

[indiana]

Fred....BOL with all your week 4 action buddy...
on MTSU and Ole Miss with you.......
will probably add Iowa as well.....indy

 

[ofred]

GL Indy. A weather game, sort of:

1* ECU/ Gardner-Webb- under 54.5 This game is being played at the tail end of tropical storm conditions. Should be raining lightly, with winds of 15-20 and gusts in the 20s. Both teams are replacing QBs this season, both have struggled offensively. Gardner-Webb has been one of the best defenses in the OVC, holdingFBS teams CCU to 31, Marshall to 28 and Liberty to 21 in 2022. Grass field, with two teams that like to run the ball.

 

[ofred]

Lean:
USC -20.5 1H The ASU defense is mediocre, but the offense is a complete shitshow. Injuries to QBs, OL, etc. Kind of see a feeding frenzy from the USC defense, which might also score. Might up this to 1*