Week 4

[ESQAJM]

Pre-season:
4* 2-0
3* 3-1
2* 2-2
1* 1-0 +15 units

Well, this is the last week and then the real games start. It's nice to go into the regular season up a few units. Gives you a little cushion.

Tampa Bay +3 3*
NE -3.5 3* (I will buy the 1/2 pt)

Teaser: 4*
Tampa Bay +9
Denver -1

May have 1 or 2 more if the lines move during the week. I like Denver, but I'm not going to give 7 points. I also like Tenn, but I'm not going to give 7 or 6.5 that it's down to now.
Last week there were some big line moves. I'll wait and see.
ESQAJM

 

[hansenbros.]

on em. thank you.

gl

 

[ESQAJM]

I also like Tenn to finish up the pre-season strongly. The line has dropped from 7 to 6 for a little better value, but I hate laying that many points in pre-season. I will play a 6 point teaser to bring them to PICK.

Teaser: 3*
Tenn Pick
Tenn Over 32
ESQAJM

 

[ESQAJM]

The same post that I made about Tenn now also applies to Denver. After being -7 all week the line broke and it's -5 now. The total after being 38 all week is 37 now. There is more value in the lines now so I am adding the following selection:

Denver -5 3*
Denver O37 2*
ESQAJM

 

[ESQAJM]

Well, pre-season is over and my record stands at:
4* 2-1 67%
3* 5-3 63%
2* 3-2 60%
1* 1-0 100% +13 units

On all accounts I should have had a good pre-season up 13 units and going into the regular season with some extra cash in my pockets. I AM NOT. I sucumbed to the sickness called "Lack of Discipline", which at one time or another affects all gamblers. Going into the last week of the season I said to myself "I'm up 15 units, I might as well swing for a homerun this week as I'm playing with the book's money".

So after being disciplined for the first three weeks of the pre-season and betting exactly what my system called for, I loved the Denver game in week 4 and made all kinds of bets on it, way out of proportion to the bets on my other system games. I also bet on other games that were not picked by my system, just because I "liked" the game.

Arizona, who had not won a game so far in preseason, kicked the crap out of Denver at Denver's home field and won the game easily. In addition all my other games that I threw a few dollars on because I "liked" them, lost.

By the time the smoke cleared, despite my system only losing 2 units in week 4 and despite being up 13 units for the pre-season, I was just about even for the 4 weeks of betting.

I have read several posts on this board talking about this problem. It cost me a lot of money this week. If this post helps some of you guys out there it was worth the effort to write it. DISCIPLINE IS ONE OF THE KEY INGREDIENTS OF BEING A SUCCESSFUL BETTOR.
ESQAJM

 

[winbet]

ESQAJM,
Putting all your profits on 1 game IS a mistake but I am a great advocate of pressing up stakes with the books money. I was a bookmaker for 16 years and it was the one thing I hated most. In that period I had many players win bundles when initially they would have lost peanuts.

If you are confident in your judgement, then there is more of an up-side in pressing up.
As I have said in the past, when its your money, be careful. If its the books, take a few chances.

Best of Luck for the new season

 

[ESQAJM]

WINBET: You are right about pressing up. Except I pressed up stupidly. I should have pressed up by doubling my bets, but still sticking to the system that got me to +15 units. I didn't have the discipline to press up the right way because I loved the Denver game. I have learned this in the past. NEVER FALL IN LOVE WITH A GAME. I am really annoyed at myself for this stupidity.
ESQAJM

 

[BigLou+]

ESQAJM,

Try taking Denver this week against Kansas City to get some of that back.

Big Lou

 

[hansenbros.]

been there my friend

we have a LONG season to get, and surpass those 13 units!!!
marathon NOT sprint, good work anyways.

gl

 

[ESQAJM]

Hansen: You know who I had in mind when I wrote this post.
ESQAJM