Week 4

[ChadC]

No time for write ups right now, but my system is favoring a few teams already.

Jets -3

Titans +3 (+125)

Browns -4 (canbet)

Falcons +6

Skins -2.5

Bills -3



[This message was edited by ChadC on September 26, 2003 at 09:00 AM.]

[This message was edited by ChadC on September 27, 2003 at 07:18 AM.]

[This message was edited by ChadC on September 28, 2003 at 05:15 AM.]

 

[ChadC]

Jets -3

Going back to 1990 the Dallas Cowboys are 23-32-1 as a road dog. More importanatly they are 7-16 ATS as a road dog coming off a win and 5-14 ATS off a SU/ATS win and 1-4 ATS off SU dog win. In non-divisional games most importantly they are 11-20 ATS since 1990. With the Jets losing record according to these trends they still have the advantage with Dallas being only 37% against teams below .500. The trends for the Jets aren't to hot either I must add to be fair, but I like their chances this week.

 

[Dante]

nice write up... good luck chad

 

[ChadC]

Same to you Dante.

 

[ChadC]

Titans +3 (+125)

The Titans are 24-10-1 ATS as a road dog coming off a win and 12-2-1 ATS coming off a double digit win since 1990. They are also 24-15-0 ATS when their opponent is coming off a win (Pitt beat Cincy last Sunday). Most surprisingly to me was that the Titans play better against better teams going 21-10-1 ATS against oppnents over .500 on the season. They are also 17-5-1 ATS when they are over .500 and a road dog that week. I wanted to take Pittsburgh here but after reading up I couldn't pass on the Titans.

 

[RPM]

good luck man!~

 

[ChadC]

Bills -3

The Bills come into this game with a chip on their shoulder after being completely humiliated by the Dolphins on Sunday night. Since 1990 the Bills are 11-5-2 ATS at home following a double digit loss. They are 30-18-1 ATS at home as a favorite against Non-Divisional teams. With the Eagles injuries on D and their total lack of offense coupled with Buffalo's new found defense I smell a romp in Buffalo.

 

[ChadC]

Browns -4

The Browns are coming off their first victory of the year while the Bengals are still looking for their first. This game will be played at the mistake by the lake, Cleveland. The Bengals as road dogs are 15-33 since 1990 when their opponent is coming off a win. Even worse, they are 14-28-1 as a road dog in a Divisional game. They are also 19-30-1 the week after a straight up and ATS loss. As a matter of fact, i couldn't find one piece of information to support a bet on the Bengals here. That is why this game scares me. It seems way to easy.

 

[ChadC]

Falcons +6

The Falcons are going into this one with a bad taste in their mouth. Their whole season might rest on this one game. The Panthers are coming a bye week and riding high. Their offense has yet to really do anything, but everyone knows how good their defense is. Makes you wonder why Fox isn't coaching the Giants instead of Fassell. Anyways, the Falcons are 17-10-1 over the past 10 seasons after a SU and ATS loss. They are 6-4 after back to back SU and ATS losses. They are 16-10-1 ATS as road dogs in divisional games and 17-11 ATS as road dogs coming off of any divisional game. To be honest though, there is more information on this game pointing to Carolina's side. I just have a good feeling on this one and only have Carolina by 3.5 in my personal power rankings.

 

[ChadC]

Ughh, 2-4 on the day. Going with the Colts tonight though. Edgerrin or no Edgerrin the Saints haven't stopped anything all year. Eddie George of all people went over 100 on them.

Colts -1.5

 

[jaypaw]

good call on the colts...

I know alot of people do well looking at those old trends but to me I think that can really get you into trouble if you dont put it in context - noting such things like - how different is the team now from then and how much has the competition changed.

even if a team is relatively unchanged over that many games (which is becoming more and more rare) its still tough for me to not look at the more recent factors (whos hot & whos not, whos hurt, and whether or not the team is on the up swing or the down slide) with a lot more weight.

GL

 

[Oren1]

good point J.