Week 4 NFL 10/3-10/4

[BlackampGold]

All Plays One Unit
Week 3: 6-2 75.00% +3.81U
Preseason Straight Plays: 16-9-0 64.00% +6.47U
Regular Season Straight Plays: 14-6 70.00% +7.66U
Total Straight Plays: 30-15 66.67% +14.13U
Money Line Underdogs: 0-1 0.00% -1.00U
Total = +13.13U




Bengals/Steelers OVER 38 -110


Cincinnati knows how to attack the Steelers defense and that is to spread the field and pass the ball. Expect some "hurry-up" from the Bengals as well. The Bengals had more success running the ball versus the Ravens in week 3 when it threw the ball first so that strategy should work very well versus a lesser defense. Chad Johnson has surpassed 100 yards receiving last 2 trips to Pittsburgh and I don't see him having much trouble topping that this week. The Steelers have allowed 12 WR touchdowns in their last 8 home games. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers should reach the red zone easily all game as they have averaged 173 rushing yards L5 versus Cincinnati and this year the Steelers run game is better than it has been and the Bengals run defense appears to be worse than ever. Big Ben has developed good chemistry with Ward & Randle-El already so I like the Black & Gold's chances once they reach the red-zone. Finally, we have 2 young, inexperienced QB's in this game so turnovers setting up a short field for the opponnet is also very possible.


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[Oren1]

looks good, gl

 

[jaypaw]

Gl Bg

 

[BlackampGold]

Oren & Jaypaw - Good to hear from you guys. Thanks & hope you both have a BIG weekend.




Philadelphia/Chicago UNDER 39.5 -110


At first glance, the over looks attractive in this game with Philadelphia's offense in high gear and the Bears' secondary hobbled and also minus Urlacher. After further review, I see this game sliding under and here is why: First of all, I don't see the Bears scoring much but I do see them milking the clock. The Eagles have allowed 100+ yards rushing in 12 of the last 15 games. The Bears will be looking to shorten this game by running the ball and playing keep away from McNabb & Co. They should have some success b/w the twenties but with Jonathan Quinn(3 career starts) facing the Eagles pressure defense, they will be very hard-pressed to score touchdowns. When the Eagles do have the ball, they will be looking to take advantage of the Bears depleted secondary but two injuries on their side of the ball may slow them down a bit; #1 Fullback John Ritchie was lost for the season with an ACL - he is an outstanding lead blocker for Westbrook. His abscense may also slow down the passing game a bit since he blocks blitzers and catches balls out of the backfield. G J. Mayberry tore a bicep muscle and is expected to play but that is an injury that could weaken his effectiveness. The line already lost Andrews so they are getting a little thin upfront(figuratively not literally ). For players who like trends, I got this from a poster at another site -

Play the Under when the road team is playing their second road game in a row (Since the start of '01: O/U 67-102-5, 60.4% Unders --- O/U 32-52-3, 61.9% Unders when the road team covered the spread in the prior game). (5-2, 71.4% in '04)

 

[BlackampGold]

Denver/Tampa Bay Under 35 -107


Denver's offense is having trouble converting red zone opportunities into TD's as they have converted just 3 out of 9 chances. They will be facing a TB defense which best can be described as "bend but not break". TB held Seattle's offense to 10 points in their only home game this season and Hasselbeck passed for only 147 yards. The Bucs have allowed just 2 passing TD's in 3 games. Denver's once proud running game has stalled running just 22 for 67 yards versus Jacksonville and then shockingly 21 for only 37 yards against the Chargers. @ TB is not the venue to re-charge a running game. Denver has allowed an average of 14.7 points/game - TB is at/near the bottom of most offensive categories. Rickey Dudley, Charlie Garner, and Joey Galloway are all out. Denver has allowed just 1 passing TD all season and as for their run defense - Tomlinson rushed 22 times for just 60 carries last week. Both teams will want to establish the run in this game and this shapes up as a field-position type of game.

 

[BlackampGold]

Indianapolis/Jacksonville OVER 43 -107


Jacksonville's defense is very good but the Colts offense doesn't care. Peyton Manning has eight TD passes in L4 versus Jacksonville despite posting modest yardage totals. You can expect the Colts to do their share to cash an over ticket but you cannot say the same about Jacksonville..usually: This week should be different - The Jags O-line is bigger and more physical than the Colts D-line. Since 2002, Fred Taylor has a 5.2 YPC average with 4 TD's vs. Indy. Leftwich seems to be much more comfortable and effective in the shotgun and I expect the Jags will want to exploit a depleted Indy secondary <(OUT S Mike Doss (hamstring); CB Joseph Jefferson (knee); S Bob Sanders (foot); DOUBTFUL S Idrees Bashir (groin)> but also may HAVE to in order to keep up in this game.

 

[BlackampGold]

St. Louis/SF UNDER 44 -103
Baltimore -5.5 -107


I should be able to do a write-up for these later.

 

[BlackampGold]

St. Louis/SF UNDER 44 -103



I should be able to do a write-up for these later.

There has been quite a bit of criticism towards Mike Martz in regards to ignoring the running game. On Monday, he mentioned that he would like to get Stephen Jackson more involved. Now, I expect that will happen in ADDITION to getting Marshall Faulk more carries. The problem with this? - wrong team to be facing to focus on the running game - The 49ers are allowing just over 70 YPG on the ground but are last against the pass. When the Rams do go to pass, the 49ers should be able to mount a pass rush to slow them down. Bulger has been sacked 10 times the last 2 games. The 49ers were able to sack Aaron Brooks 3 times & Michael Vick 4 times in games this season. On the other side of the ball, the 49ers offense should continue to struggle. The loss of C Newberry really weakened an already questionable offensive line. The return of Rattay will help but it doesn't offset the lack of playmakers available to him. I would expect the SF game plan to feature Kevan Barlow in an effort to shorten the game with a ball control offense.

 

[BlackampGold]

Sunday: 4-1 +2.93U

Baltimore -5.5 -107


I should be able to do a write-up for these later.

The Chiefs defeated the Ravens in B-more last season in the midst of a 13-game win streak in which their offense was hitting on all cylinders. The important tidbit I am focusing on is that they only managed 1 offensive TD in that game. Now they come in on a Monday Night with an offense that certainly is not hitting on all cylinders. The Chiefs wide receivers are hurting - Boerigter is out for the year of course, Morton is still nursing but playing with an Achilles injury, Kennison is questionable with a hamstring injury, and Dante Hall has a shoulder contusion and an infection in his lips which has held him out of Thursday's practice. The Ravens have not allowed a rushing TD this season and were able to hold Priest Holmes scoreless & to 90 yards last season. I'll be the first to admit that the Ravens defense is a bit over-rated, but this is a very good matchup for them. The matchup is even better on the other side of the ball: The Chiefs run defense is awful and they are very poor tacklers. Jamal Lewis is a big back who breaks tackles and with Ogden healthy, the Ravens are opening huge lanes for him. This could get ugly. Despite the absence of Heap & Taylor, Boller should have opportunities against KC's secondary because they will surely be loading up in an effort to slow down Lewis. The Ravens have solid coverage teams so even if Dante Hall is healthy, they should prevent big returns. A defensive TD and/or creating short fields with turnovers is usually a factor with the Ravens big-play defense so laying the 5.5 is okay with me.

A trend for the Ravens tonight - Play on a Monday Night home team that was away last week if opponet was home. (84-46-2 64.6% since 1980, 0-1 this season).

 

[MARTEL910]

Black & Gold, I have been following your threads and I like very much what I see, I was with you on the OVER for the PITT/CINCY game and saw that INT return to get us the over, nice win and I will be with you tonight on Baltimore, keep up the good work.....

 

[BlackampGold]

Martel - Thanks, man. I was at the game and was just going crazy. Not only did it seal the game for my team but you are right, cashed the over as well. If I lose this wager tonight, I hope KC wins outright so at least the Steelers have 1st place by themselves.

 

[Jacksorbetter+]

Ravens defense overrated? They have the best linebackers and defensive backs in football. They are missing 2 starters on the D line in Gregg and Boulware but Terrell Suggs is a stud. I'm a bit biased but I still think they are the best defense in football. Good luck on your pick as I think you are on the right side. It will be Jamal left, Jamal right and Jamal left again. The defense will be all over Trent Green. The Ravens players still love Priest as he is a great guy and was a great teammate, but they have the longest streak of not allowing a 100 yard rusher and plan on keeping it going. 27-10 Ravens.

 

[BlackampGold]

Jacks - Just because I think they are a little over-rated doesn't mean I don't think they are one of the best defenses in the NFL. What can you and I expect though - Steelers fans and Ravens fans aren't going to see eye to eye, right?

Good luck tonight Jacks, I just hope the Ravens don't win and fail to cover - worst possible scenario tonight as gambler/Steelers fan.

 

[mickj]

Congrats on the totals, almost 5-0. :aktion033:aktion033

 

[BlackampGold]

MickJ - Thanks for the kind words. Good luck if you are playing the game tonight!

 

[Peebs]

and B&G , Trent Green has thrown for 3 INTS already this year. I think he will be forcing it tonight and Balt should get a big Spec Teams play!

Good luck, on Balt -6

 

[BlackampGold]

Thanks Peebs. Unfortunately for the bankroll, my statement about Baltimore's defense being a little over-rated proved to be correct last night. KC's offensive line was dominant.

Week 4 & record recap:


All Plays One Unit
Week 4: 4-2 66.67% +1.86U
Preseason Straight Plays: 16-9-0 64.00% +6.47U
Regular Season Straight Plays: 18-8 69.23% +9.52U
Total Straight Plays: 34-17 66.67% +15.99U
Money Line Underdogs: 0-1 0.00% -1.00U
Total = +14.99U