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Florida vs. Tennessee, 9/24/16-Prediction[/h]
Florida Gators 3-0 (1-2 ATS) at
Tennessee Volunteers 3-0 (1-2 ATS)
There are several story lines coming into this rivalry game, but probably none bigger than
Florida starting quarterback
Luke Del Rio going out with a left knee sprain against North Texas in Saturday’s 32-0 victory in Gainesville.
Tennessee limps into the game with some key injuries of their own. The
Volunteers struggled in Rocky Top last week, holding just a two-point lead in the fourth quarter against the visiting Ohio Bobcats before ultimately prevailing 28-19. These two squads have been meeting on the gridiron since 1916. UT won the first ten matchups, but the series has been largely dominated by
Gators since then.
Florida not only leads the overall series 26-19 but has won 11 in a row, and 19 of the last 23, including last year’s 28-27 win at the Swamp when this happened. Three of the four wins that
Tennessee does have during that span came by three points or less, with one coming in overtime.
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Gators Looking to Continue Rivalry Dominance[/h] After what many considered to be a ho-hum 24-7 opening weekend victory over UMass,
Florida turned it on in their 45-7 win over Kentucky in their
SEC opener. The task against North Texas was fairly easy . . . Win the game and come out of it healthy. Unfortunately for the AP 19th-ranked
Gators, only one of those things would happen. The victory was relatively routine, cruising to a 32-point win and allowing just 53 yards of total offense by the visitors, a school record. Unfortunately for the Orange and Blue,
Luke Del Rio went down with a leg injury in the third quarter. The sophomore has thrown for 762 yards and six touchdowns in just over 2.5 games during the 2016 campaign. The good news for the
Gators is that the running game has been fairly dominant to this point as well. Jordan Scarlett leads the rushing attack to this point with 175 yards and two touchdowns, but the team as a whole has totaled 606 yards on the ground. Much like many
Florida teams of recent years, the defense can also be counted on to pick up the slack. The unit is allowing just 129.7 yards per game, compared to
Tennessee‘s defense giving up 336.7 yards per contest coming into Saturday afternoon.
[h=3]Vo11’s Hoping to Avoid 12th Straight Loss to UF[/h]
Tennessee opened up the season ranked in the top ten in both polls. Since then, they had to come back from ten points down to earn an overtime victory against the Sun Belt Conference’s Appalachian State, come back from 14 down at a neutral site against a Virginia Tech team that finished with a .500 record in the 2015 regular season, and then this past weekend hold off an Ohio Bobcats squad that has already lost at home to Texas State this year. Through all the ups and downs (mostly downs), the squad still managed to stay ranked, and enters this contest as the No. 14 team in the Associated Press poll. Against Ohio,
Josh Dobbs threw for 203 yards and two scores, with one interception.
Jalen Hurd managed just 4.1 yards per carry on his way to 61 yards from 15 carries and a score. Dobbs found the end zone with his feet as well, and ran for 59 yards on 14 carries. Josh Malone was the leading receiver with five receptions and 69 yards and ended up finding the end zone twice on the day. Despite all the preseason hype, Hurd has rushed for just 270 yards and two scores through three games this season.
Trends:
Florida is:
- 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games
- 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record
- 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss
- 8-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games
Tennessee is:
- 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record
Okay, so everybody can look at my author profile and see where I went to school. You can blame this pick on my being a homer all you want, but the reality is that an offense that has looked like
Tennessee‘s to this point, has no business getting 8.5 points against a defense that has been playing like
Florida‘s. Hell, I even think
Tennessee can win this game, but I simply do not see it being by a two score margin at the end of the day. Besides, 11-game losing streaks are never broken with ease, and the road team is 6-1-1 against the spread in the last eight meetings between these two teams. The 8.5 point opening line will not last long, and you can expect it to come down significantly and fast, so try to jump on it quickly.
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Almost gametime!!!
