Week 4: Going BIG Sunday Night

[ofred]

Will update my record and do write-ups on these Monday or Tuesday.

6* Alabama -43 Saban usually goes easy on these cream puffs, but after 2 straight games of his team NOT playing 60 minutes, he'll crush Kent all game long. Kent is so bad that even Alabama's 2nd and 3rd stringers will push them around. Alabama will dominate on special teams and defense, and get the turnovers. This game ends up 67-7 or something like that.

5* Colorado St. +16 Minnesota always plays everyone close no matter who they are. Probably because they are offensively challenged and overrated defensively. CSU looks like they found a QB in Collin Hill. I think their 1st game was an outlier with Colorado just coming out blasting with Sefu Liafau.

4* Arkansas +6 They win this game at a neutral site. Arkansas can hang with anyone as Austin Allen looks cool under pressure and the Hog offense outscores anything A&M puts up.

3* Boise St. -13.5 Oregon State is improved this year, but still has a poor OL, and a defense that can get torched by an offense like Boise's. Beav running game aint there.

3* Air Force -3 Utah State has made a rep on great defense but all those guys are gone. Air Force has many returnees and actually a better D than they've had in a long time.

3* S. Miss -10 (-120) Mullens might be the best under the radar QBs in college football. UTEP can't play D or keep up with the SMiss offense.

3* Texas State +34.5 ​Houston on the road, and this spread is ridiculous. Texas State struggled at Arkansas, but they are the perfect team to score in garbage time or against a team that has bigger fish to fry.

 

[14Words]

I've got Arkansas on my early leans list. That Air Force line is throwing me off, but I haven't seen them play at all yet this season.

I do know they seriously under performed against a truly horrible Abilene Christian squad in week 1 and can't get that out of my head.

 

[sdf]

I woulda played Bama 1h. As you say, Bam could ease off the gas in the 2nd half (perhaps not?) as Saban lets off the gas and the backups will surely be in

 

[Enfuego]

Be careful with that Minny play. CSU is very offensively challenged against a very good Minny D. CSU is very young as well.

If the line was 10-11, I was all over Minny.

 

[solrosenberg]

O fred , I wasn't trying to start a fight the other day about the Nebraska game just saw it as a shit game between 2 shitty, sloppy teams.
Sorry if you thought I was trying to be an a-hole.
I appreciate your info thanks for posting , you are a definite asset to this forum.

 

[ofred]

O fred , I wasn't trying to start a fight the other day about the Nebraska game just saw it as a shit game between 2 shitty, sloppy teams.
Sorry if you thought I was trying to be an a-hole.
I appreciate your info thanks for posting , you are a definite asset to this forum.

Your comments were fine with me. Actually, the game ended up closer to your analysis than mine. It was a push, and that's about right for how the game was played. Kudos to the Duck bettors who had the +3.5, and boo hoo to the books who got creamed.

 

[ofred]

I appreciate any input from the posters already looking at the same games. I'll address them in the write-ups. The reason I played some games early is that I'm about 1-12 in the past 2 weeks in my later plays- luckily most of them 1*…but still, it looks like a trend in my thinking.
Now at 18-20, + 4.15 units
(playing on fumes at this point)

Alabama/ Kent St: Normally I wouldn't touch Alabama in this kind of spot since they usually play the bottom of the bench in the 2nd half. They also play very conservative vs. teams like Kent. But I think this week will be different for 2 reasons. One, Saban, his coaches and his team, are ticked off at themselves for how they played the past 2 weeks, and how they finished(or didn't finish) each game. I think the coaches will emphasize playing the whole 60 minutes as if they're playing any SEC opponent. I think that bodes well for the 1H when they can pull out to a big lead- not just because of the offense is throwing downfield every play or breaking off big runs, but because….Two, they are playing a VERY offensively bad team. Kent State, for the past 2-3 years, hasn't been able to run or pass the ball effectively, and that's against MAC competition. I think they'll turn it over or go 3 and out all day.

Kent is going with a freshman QB, Mylik Mitchell, a 2 star recruit who has a basketball player's body and will not be protected by his OL like he was against NC A@T and division 3, Monmouth. Oops, he has 9 sacks already. Kent lost to NC A&T, out yarded by 135, a decent FCS team but nothing special. Kent is also missing 2 of their top 3 receivers. Last year they scored a total of 17 points vs. these 6 opponents- Akron, Toldeo, BGU, Minnesota, Illinois, Ohio- not exactly a murderer's row. I also think Alabama will play an aggressive, disciplined game in all aspects, including special teams. This game has a different feel to it than past Alabama vs. patsy games. I'll be on the 1h ​when it comes out.

 

[ofred]

Colorado St/ Minnesota: Minnesota is a run heavy, slow scoring team that doesn't seem to have much of a home field advantage, or those playmakers that break off the big TD plays. They have lived and died by their defense and their running game. They can give the better Big 10 teams a tough battle, but seem to let the lesser teams hang around, barely winning. This year they squeaked by a pretty bad Oregon State team, in which looked evenly matched. Last season, they beat Kent by 3, Colorado St by 3, Ohio by 3, and Illinois by 9 at home. Based on their performance against OSU and Indiana State(FCS), it's very possible they have an overrated defense. If anything, their secondary looks beatable.

Colorado State is coached by Mike Bobo, the former OC at Georgia. They got torched by Colorado in the 1H of game one, but if you've seen CU this year when Sefu Liafau is playing healthy(like @Michigan Saturday), they are a different team this year. CSU has possibly found a QB in Collin Hill, who is a dual threat that looks poised, broke off a 50 yard run last week, passing at 21/27. Granted that was vs. Northern Colorado, but CSU has last year's start, Nick Stevens, on the bench, and another QB with experience and is more of a wildcat player. I think Bobo will scheme well to give CSU some good chances of exploiting the Minnesota secondary. Minnesota will pound the rock, and Mitch Leidner will have some success against the young CSU defense, but Leidner is pretty much a short passer who did not impress vs. the Beavers. I just think 16 points is too much for an offensively conservative team that begins its Big 10 schedule next week. In Gopher blogs, they're talking Penn State and Iowa, not CSU.

 

[indiana]

Fred.......solid looking card...........continued success with your action this week............indy

 

[ofred]

Fred.......solid looking card...........continued success with your action this week............indy

Thanks Indy.

I had Minnesota at -10 before the lines came out.

 

[Shua12]

Agree with most, but LOVE Kent here. And will play Kent 1H +28 too
saban went to Kent, and last time out did NOT rub it in. I don't think he rubs it in here too. No incentive too. Just win, chew clock and play great defense.

42-3 final, too many points for Kent.

 

[ofred]

Agree with most, but LOVE Kent here. And will play Kent 1H +28 too
saban went to Kent, and last time out did NOT rub it in. I don't think he rubs it in here too. No incentive too. Just win, chew clock and play great defense.

42-3 final, too many points for Kent.

Alabama won that by 41 in the 1st game of the year, 5 years ago.. Alabama is not coasting or beginning the season here. They're coming off 2 unsatisfying games. Besides, Saban will expect his players to play with a max effort- it's a culture fostered by any winning team no matter who you play- and especially at Bama. Kent State is just so overmatched here vs. the Alabama defense I can't see them scoring unless they get lucky. But I digress...

 

[Scott602]

Fred what worries me, is Sabans history of not covering..

 

[Scott602]

They beat Charleston Southern 56–6 last year but 41 was the most points they scored in any other game until the championship. He just seems like he doesn't want to rub it in the face of the small schools that are just there for a big paycheck. He could easily put up 70 on those little schools, but he doesn't. In 2014 he beat Florida Atlantic 41–0 and Southern Miss 52–12 and western Carolina 48–14.

 

[ofred]

Arkansas/ Texas A&M (bet this one down to a 3*) If this was being played at Kyle Field, I'd lay off. But there should be a nice sized Arkansas crowd making the trip on I-30 to Dallas. Austin Allen might end up being one of the best in a long line of Hog QBs. He has that competitiveness in crunch time, and right now leads the SEC in passing efficiency. Arkansas' D is also much improved from last year. Texas A&M has a complete team too, and their offense might be better than expected- more because of RB Traeyvon Williams than Trevor Knight, whose passing ability is fairly inconsistent. Bielema's team always seems to be in every game no matter whom the opponent. They play with a chip on their shoulder and I expect this game to sway back and forth. I'll take the 6, with a good chance Arkansas wins.

 

[ofred]

They beat Charleston Southern 56–6 last year but 41 was the most points they scored in any other game until the championship. He just seems like he doesn't want to rub it in the face of the small schools that are just there for a big paycheck. He could easily put up 70 on those little schools, but he doesn't. In 2014 he beat Florida Atlantic 41–0 and Southern Miss 52–12 and western Carolina 48–14.

I hear you, and I mentioned that in my original write-up. I got a feeling that Saban won't "want" to run up the score, but vs. Kent he won't be able to stop it. If you're an Alabama 2nd stringer playing with a big lead in the 2nd half, are you still able to dominate Kent State physically?(Remember Kent gets the MAC leftovers recruiting-wise) Will you play as well as possible? Is this a time to shine when usually you're on the bench? I say yes. Even though Bama won't pull out all the stops offensively, they won't have to. Just giving my thoughts in these write-ups…no one needs to follow. Alabama has mostly not covered these games, so I get it.

 

[varkeyboy]

Let's do this!!!

 

[MGMan]

Colorado St/ Minnesota: Minnesota is a run heavy, slow scoring team that doesn't seem to have much of a home field advantage, or those playmakers that break off the big TD plays. They have lived and died by their defense and their running game. They can give the better Big 10 teams a tough battle, but seem to let the lesser teams hang around, barely winning. This year they squeaked by a pretty bad Oregon State team, in which looked evenly matched. Last season, they beat Kent by 3, Colorado St by 3, Ohio by 3, and Illinois by 9 at home. Based on their performance against OSU and Indiana State(FCS), it's very possible they have an overrated defense. If anything, their secondary looks beatable.

Colorado State is coached by Mike Bobo, the former OC at Georgia. They got torched by Colorado in the 1H of game one, but if you've seen CU this year when Sefu Liafau is playing healthy(like @Michigan Saturday), they are a different team this year. CSU has possibly found a QB in Collin Hill, who is a dual threat that looks poised, broke off a 50 yard run last week, passing at 21/27. Granted that was vs. Northern Colorado, but CSU has last year's start, Nick Stevens, on the bench, and another QB with experience and is more of a wildcat player. I think Bobo will scheme well to give CSU some good chances of exploiting the Minnesota secondary. Minnesota will pound the rock, and Mitch Leidner will have some success against the young CSU defense, but Leidner is pretty much a short passer who did not impress vs. the Beavers. I just think 16 points is too much for an offensively conservative team that begins its Big 10 schedule next week. In Gopher blogs, they're talking Penn State and Iowa, not CSU.

I don't disagree with the pick, in fact I agree with it. However, Minny has typically started slow in game one, especially offensively and then they improve as most teams do as the season progresses. Minnesota is going to throw more this year as their receiving core is improving. In game 2, they threw 30 times compared to 44 rushes and had 295 receiving yards. They averaged 14 yards a reception and are streching the field under their new offensive coordinator. Look for a few points to be scored in this one as I agree that our d-backs are not as good as they were last year.

 

[JarFly]

As always love your write-ups. Solid reasoning behind your plays. Good luck Fred this week!

 

[KAPTHAT]

whoever dont like the picks just fade.........gl o fred