Week 4 CFB Plays

[sendacash]

Texas Tech +7.5(-120)

Going to grab the Red Raiders with the hook while I can, they got me last week against Arkansas and I think they can build off that victory with another strong showing as dogs at home in Lubbock which is always a tough place to play. I like this T Tech QB Mahomes, seems to have solid skills in both passing and running game while the Frogs defense has been decimated with injuries having lost 6 players thus far on the season.

 

[sendacash]

Tennessee +1.5

My numbers would make the Vols a slight favorite here so I'm going to back them once again. We've got a decent edge with the Vols regarding the returning starters and the more experienced QB. Butch Jones gets a big win for the Tenn program in the Swamp on Saturday. Going to throw a little extra down on the money line as well

 

[CoachCB]

Tennessee +1.5

My numbers would make the Vols a slight favorite here so I'm going to back them once again. We've got a decent edge with the Vols regarding the returning starters and the more experienced QB. Butch Jones gets a big win for the Tenn program in the Swamp on Saturday. Going to throw a little extra down on the money line as well

Florida is my team.....and I have to agree w/ you. I'm not betting it, but I lean UT. I was surprised it opened w/ UF a favorite. The only issue/concern I have (for taking UT) is the game is in The Swamp.

 

[sendacash]

Oregon -11.5

This line is somewhat puzzling assuming that Ducks QB Vernon Adams is going to play and all indications are that he will. The Ducks have one of the best home fields in all of college football at Autzen Stadium, especially for a night game and I give them 5.5 points in that role so the line is telling me that the Ducks would only be favored by 6 against the Utes on a neutral field? I find that hard to believe and my numbers make this game Oregon -17.5. From a match-up perspective I think that works in the Ducks favor as the Ducks weakness on defense has been with their inexperienced secondary. The Ducks are allowing 316 passing yards per game and that ranks 118th in the country. Part of that is the fact that Oregon has two blowout wins where its opponent fell behind and had to pass a lot to catch up, but the Ducks know their inexperience in the secondary is a target for opponents. However the passing games is not Utah's strength as they rank only 107th in passing offense. Oregon's strength on defense is with their front 7, Oregon can play all seniors in its front seven and has done that at times. Seniors DeForest Buckner and Alex Balducci are veterans on the line while sophomore Henry Mondeaux and senior Tui Talia are among those replacing first-round pick Arik Armstead on the end. Tyson Coleman, Rodney Hardrick and Joe Walker are all returning starters at linebacker while Christian French starts on the outside after leading the Ducks in sacks last year as a reserve. That's pretty much the same group that held Booker to 65 yards on 18 carries last season. Devontae Booker is the main threat on offense for Utah, but if the Ducks can contain the Utah running game and jump out to an early lead I'm not sure Utah is going to be able to keep up on the scoreboard.

 

[indiana]

S/cash............nice looking plays.......nice write ups............BOL with this week end............indy

 

[alkimyst]

Good luck!

 

[sendacash]

Thanks guys, Hopefully I will be cashing a ticket on a favorite this weekend!

 

[sendacash]

Vanderbilt +24.5

Classic letdown spot for Ole Miss coming off the big Alabama win, plus they have Florida on deck so call it a sandwich spot if you will. Game showing signs of RLM right now so gonna take the 24.5 while I still can and hope for the best.

 

[sendacash]

Ball State +20

Here's a game a bit under the radar in another MAC vs B1G out of conference match-up. While the Big 10 may have dominated these types of games in years past, this year the MAC is 5-1 ATS against the BIG 10 thus far. I rode Northwestern last week against Duke and in week 1 against Stanford, but from what I have seen this is not the type of offense suitable for laying heavy chalk as they are really run based and their young Freshman QB is only completing about 50% of his passes. Now Ball St. is going with a freshman QB making his first start on the road and while that is a big concern, he's seen significant action thus far against both Texas A&M and Eastern Michigan last week and he's clearly their best option right now. My numbers make this game about 5 points lower and when you throw in the fact that Northwestern has a huge game on deck against fellow Big 10 West rival Minnesota I think it will be enough to stay within the number, especially given the the total forecast(50) and how both teams like to run the football.

 

[sendacash]

Florida International +14.5

In another not so marquee match-up I'll take the Panthers from Fla Intl against Louisiana Tech. While I think this is a fair line, I had La Tech last week against Kansas State and man did they let one get away there. That game went to 3 Overtimes and I really thought La Tech had them on the ropes and let them off the hook, so I'm calling for a bit of a letdown here off what should have been a huge upset. The name of the game for Fla Intl is defense, at they allow a stingy 2.8 YPR against teams that average 3.4 along with 4.5 YPP against foes that average 4.9.

 

[sendacash]

Texas +3 & ML

Oklahoma State brings their unbeaten record on the road to Austin against Texas in the conference opener for both teams. I think Texas may have found something last week with their comeback against Cal lead by QB Jerrod Heard. I actually made Texas an ever so slight favorite in this game and will take the points here while adding a little extra to the money line as well.

 

[sendacash]

Mizzou +3 & ML

Mizzou looks to get back 1,000-yard rusher Russell Hansbrough who has been dealing with an ankle injury since early in the opener against Southeast Missouri State and the Tigers' offense has not been the same since. Assuming Hansbrough is back to normal, the rushing matchup appears to favor Mizzou. Kentucky’s defense ranks 89th against the run, surrendering 187.3 yards per game. Mizzou’s defense is 23rd against the run, allowing 101.7. The Tigers have generated steady pressure thus far, totaling seven sacks and 34 tackles for loss (including three sacks and eight TFLs from new starting defensive end Charles Harris), and rank third nationally against the pass (112.0 ypg). If Mizzou can slow down Kentucky’s running game and force the Wildcats into passing situations, that looks like a big advantage for the Tigers. Further, Missouri is 20-1 against unranked opponents since the start of the 2013 season, with the only loss coming last season against Indiana. Another trend in Missouri’s favor: the Tigers typically play well away from home. They have won 11 straight road games, tying for the third-longest active FBS streak and with that I'm going to add a little extra to the Mizzou money line as well.

 

[indiana]

S/$..........BOL with all your action this week................indy

 

[sendacash]

Looks like another winning week folks at 5-2-1, brings the season record to 17-9 ATS and we are hot like sushi on a roll with a wasabi kicker! We came up short on some ML plays this week, but will keep firing on them.