Week 4 and More

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Week 3 is usually an eye opener, a chance to evaluate actual performances vs. preseason hype. Maybe it is just me but I don’t see anyone who can’t be beat on a given day at least as far as the major conferences are concerned. It is not all just about coaching and player talent. Scheduling is a critical factor also, not only out of conference scheduling but in conference as well.

On week one Texas A&M shocked South Carolina and the entire country with their performance and by the same token South Carolina was a big disappointment. Then on week 2 S. Carolina struggled with E. Carolina who turns around and beats Virginia Tech who had just come off a big upset of Ohio St. Yes all indications are it is going to be just that kind of a season.

Arkansas took it to Texas Tech and they could do the same to others on down the road. Ole Miss and Miss St both drink the same water as do Arizona and Arizona St. Maybe that should be taken into consideration also lol. Hawaii has not backed down from anyone this season and teams like West Virginia, California and Kentucky fit the same bill. How do you account for McNeese St hanging with Nebraska.

Texas has some self made excuses for being 1-2 and others like UCLA and Florida are showing signs of mediocrity. Cincinnati watched week 1 and 2 and finally got into the action on week 3. In the first have they looked exceptional and the second half was a completely different story. But at least now everyone has tested the waters (not from Arizona and Miss lol) but the current is already taking it’s toll. Some teams appear to be treading water (UCLA, Ohio St, USC, Virginia Tech, for example.)

There are some teams who could improve steadily as the season progresses and S. Carolina could be at the top of that list. Others are Alabama, Tennessee, Missouri, and Mich St could very well go on to take the Big Ten title.

This week will tell the tale for some teams more than others. Florida plays at Alabama and their offense is still in question even with their new OC. Virginia goes to BYU and for BYU this is similar to the Texas hoopla before BYU played them as they are out to revenge a game they probably should have won. That game not only included travel but delay after delay. BYU has harbored that one for an entire year. Miss St travels to LSU and this will be a defining game for both teams. Northern Illinois travels to Arkansas who is on the biggest high they have been on in a while. Clemson and Florida St have both had an extra week to prepare for this week’s matchup, anything could happen in that one. And Cal also had an extra week to prepare for this week’s matchup at Arizona.

Yes this year will test most handicappers and about the time you think you have it figured out here comes the weather factors. Yes 2014 is and will be an interesting year for college football. BOL
 

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On So Carolina...I just finished watching that game from last night. IMO HC Richt gave that game away. I can't fault him for the missed FGs however I can fault him and OC Bobo for the play calling prior to the missed FGs. UGa gets two gifts from the very overrated DThompson, the last one being returned inside the 10yd line. Run your stud back, don't call a slow developing pass play where you dont have room and your QB is less than mobile on a wet track. Give it to you stud RB and make So Carolina stop him. It was just wacky play calling. 1st and 10 from the Cocks 11, Gurley runs for 3 to make it 2nd and 7 from the 8. You then call 2 straight pass plays against a run defense that has been leaking oil? I don't get it.

So Carolina will lose to Mizzou cause HC Pinkel knows how to call a game. He'll stick with whats working.

Not sure how Ol Miss is #10 after having beaten no one
Not sure how Wisky is ranked
Not sure how Clemson is ranked
Not sure how ND is in the top 10 after beating no one

Not that I follow the rankings, however, when it comes to playoffs, it's will give teams artificial bumps in the power numbers
 

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On So Carolina...I just finished watching that game from last night. IMO HC Richt gave that game away. I can't fault him for the missed FGs however I can fault him and OC Bobo for the play calling prior to the missed FGs. UGa gets two gifts from the very overrated DThompson, the last one being returned inside the 10yd line. Run your stud back, don't call a slow developing pass play where you dont have room and your QB is less than mobile on a wet track. Give it to you stud RB and make So Carolina stop him. It was just wacky play calling. 1st and 10 from the Cocks 11, Gurley runs for 3 to make it 2nd and 7 from the 8. You then call 2 straight pass plays against a run defense that has been leaking oil? I don't get it.

So Carolina will lose to Mizzou cause HC Pinkel knows how to call a game. He'll stick with whats working.

Not sure how Ol Miss is #10 after having beaten no one
Not sure how Wisky is ranked
Not sure how Clemson is ranked
Not sure how ND is in the top 10 after beating no one

Not that I follow the rankings, however, when it comes to playoffs, it's will give teams artificial bumps in the power numbers

That TD that called back on Georgia that would have given them an early lead changed the course of the game. (50+ yds by Gurley)

Ole Miss is the real deal until proven otherwise and that could happen in Baton Rouge this weekend.

Clemson and Florida St both had extra weeks to get ready for this weeks matchup so there are no excuses in that one.

N. Dame has very good team speed but they play the #1 toughest schedule this year but that was based on preseason rankings. Already that schedule looks easier and easier.

Wisconsin only returned 3 on defense and LSU finally wore them down.
 

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The following teams did not play on week 3 :
Akron, Auburn, California, Clemson, lorida St, Kansas St, Memphis, Michigan St, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northwestern, Oregon St, San Diego St, San Jose St, SMU, Temple, Utah, and Wisconsin.

The following teams are off this week (Week4):
Air Force, Arizona St, Arkansas St, Baylor, Colorado St, Iowa St, Kent St, Kentucky, La Monroe, Ole Miss, Nevada, Notre Dame, Ohio St, Oklahoma St, Stanford, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, Tulsa, UAB, UCLA, USC, Utah St, UTEP, UTSA, and W. Kentucky.

The following teams have perfect records ATS thru week 3 (Source – vegasinsider.com):
Auburn, Baylor, California, East Carolina, FIU, Kentucky, La Tech, Memphis, Mid Tenn St, Ole Miss, N. Illinois, TCU, UTEP, Utah, Virginia, and W. Virginia.

The following teams are winless ATS thru week 3:
Alabama, Buffalo, UCF, Conn, Florida St, Fresno St, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kansas St, Kent St, New Mexico, N. Carolina, NW, Oregon St, SMU, Texas Tech, UCLA, UNLV, Utah St, Vandy, Wisconin
 

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That TD that called back on Georgia that would have given them an early lead changed the course of the game. (50+ yds by Gurley)

Ole Miss is the real deal until proven otherwise and that could happen in Baton Rouge this weekend.

Clemson and Florida St both had extra weeks to get ready for this weeks matchup so there are no excuses in that one.

N. Dame has very good team speed but they play the #1 toughest schedule this year but that was based on preseason rankings. Already that schedule looks easier and easier.

Wisconsin only returned 3 on defense and LSU finally wore them down.
Russ
I don't think the defense is Wisky's issue. I think their lack of a QB is the issue. They can't throw the ball to save their life.

I think you mean Miss St against LSU. Ol Miss is playing Memphis and then get Bama the following week. Not sure Miss St should be ranked either, but atleast they won't go 7-0 this year like they've done in the past
 

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Memphis gets Ol Miss this week and it might be a look ahead since Miss has Bama the following week. It'll be interesting to see what the number is on that game
 

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Ole Miss is off this week. They don't play LSU or Memphis. Ole Miss plays Memphis in two weeks, and Bama in three.

You can argue that Ole Miss shouldn't be 10. That's a valid argument. But, I could ague that they are better than at least two teams in front of them. If you think Ole Miss shouldn't be 10, surely you don't think LSU should 8, and you surely shouldn't think ND should be 9, right?
 

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Ole Miss is off this week. They don't play LSU or Memphis. Ole Miss plays Memphis in two weeks, and Bama in three.

You can argue that Ole Miss shouldn't be 10. That's a valid argument. But, I could ague that they are better than at least two teams in front of them. If you think Ole Miss shouldn't be 10, surely you don't think LSU should 8, and you surely shouldn't think ND should be 9, right?

Sorry about that mix up on Ole Miss and Miss St. Miss St is still a bit under the radar and will give LSU all they want. Ole Miss is not a team anyone wants to play right now. Ole Miss has a rough stretch ahead playing Bama, at Texas A&M, Tenn, at LSU and Auburn all right in row following the Memphis game. Miss St has better schedule with a couple breaks at just the right times. A week off after LSY and just before getting Texas A&M and Auburn back to back with a week off after that. Both Ole Miss and Miss St are very competitive.
 

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Sorry about that mix up on Ole Miss and Miss St. Miss St is still a bit under the radar and will give LSU all they want. Ole Miss is not a team anyone wants to play right now. Ole Miss has a rough stretch ahead playing Bama, at Texas A&M, Tenn, at LSU and Auburn all right in row following the Memphis game. Miss St has better schedule with a couple breaks at just the right times. A week off after LSY and just before getting Texas A&M and Auburn back to back with a week off after that. Both Ole Miss and Miss St are very competitive.

Yes. Both of them have good football teams. State matches up well with LSU, but LSU is their kryptonite. I think State keeps it close, but LSU finds a way to win. seems like the right number to me.

As for Ole Miss yes, that stretch is brutal. Four games in 5 weeks against teams currently ranked, 2, 5, 6, and 8. If we can get through that stretch 2-3, I would be ok with it. 3-2 and I would be ecstatic. I challenge anyone to find a tougher 5 game stretch than that.

Ole Miss and State both have some holes to work out. Ole Miss struggles to run the ball in between the tackles, and have struggled to stop the run. State can't stop the pass, and is just awful in the kicking game. They also have a really good QB that is brittle as glass.
 

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[h=1]AP Top 25 Ranking[/h]



ASSOCIATED PRESS TOP 25
RankSchoolRecordPointsPrev
1Florida State Seminoles (37)2-014661
2Oregon Ducks (17)3-014242
3Alabama Crimson Tide (1)3-013463
4Oklahoma Sooners (2)3-013254
5Auburn Tigers2-012525
6Texas A&M Aggies (3)3-011957
7Baylor Bears3-011348
8LSU Tigers3-0111410
9Notre Dame Fighting Irish3-091711
10Ole Miss Rebels3-084014
11Michigan State Spartans1-183213
12UCLA Bruins3-080712
13Georgia Bulldogs1-17296
14South Carolina Gamecocks2-171824
15Arizona State Sun Devils3-068016
16Stanford Cardinal2-156015
17USC Trojans2-14599
18Missouri Tigers3-044620
19Wisconsin Badgers1-141418
20Kansas State Wildcats2-032619
21BYU Cougars3-024625
22Clemson Tigers1-120923
23Ohio State Buckeyes2-120422
24Nebraska Cornhuskers3-0172NR
25Oklahoma State Cowboys2-1126NR

Updated Sun Sep 14 6:33 PM EDT

 

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Week 3 is really a good time and go back to my off season thread’s theme. Namely, teams that fall from the AP preseason top 25 are bet against teams and teams that take their place (were not in the preseason top 25) are bet on teams.

So far 23 teams from the preseason top 25 have fallen out of the top 25 already are North Carolina (0-2 ATS) and Washington (1-2 ATS). They have been replaced by BYU (2-1 ATS) and Oklahoma ST (2-1 ATS).

Now Florida St (0-2 ATS) and Alabama (0-3 ATS), UCLA (0-3 ATS) Wisconsin (0-2 ATS), and Kansas St (0-2) are dragging down the ATS percentage of the current top 25 (0-12 ATS). Together the 23 teams still hanging on from the preseason poll are a combined 32-30 ATS (52%). If you throw out the teams that have not won ATS from that list and are still on that list the other18 teams are 32-18 ATS (64%).

Teams that are lurking and possible candidates to make that final top 25 are TCU (2-0 ATS), Cinn (1-0 ATS), Louisville 2-1 ATS, Marshall (1-1-1 ATS), N. Illinois 3-0 ATS, Penn St (2-1 ATS) and Utah (2-0 ATS). Combined those teams are 13-3-1 (82%). Of course there are others lurking out there and chances are their ATS record is reflecting that they are exceeding expectations.

Those teams whose ATS records they are not meeting expectations and could fall from their preseason rankings are: UCLA (0-3 ATS), S. Carolina (1-2 ATS), Arizona St (1-2 ATS), USC (2-1 ATS but showing inconsistency), Wisconsin (0-2 ATS), Ohio ST (2-1 ATS but have fallen from #5 to #23), and Nebraska (2-1 ATS but has not faced tough competition yet).
So as it stands it is what it is but we can look for more teams to fall from the preseason top 25 (usually at least 8 do as a rule) and other teams will rise into the elite rankings and take their places.
 

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Almost got one, Russ. Was a brutal triple OT loss in the only loser. I hedged $100 on Middle Tenn St. -1 so I didn't walk away a complete loser.

260959770-19/11/14 11:53am$10.00$458.17$0.00Loss4 Team Parlay
Win9/13/14 12:00pm College Football 125 East Carolina +335* vs Virginia Tech
Win9/13/14 12:00pm College Football 137 West Virginia +150* vs Maryland
Loss9/13/14 7:00pm College Football 147 Western Kentucky +105* vs Middle Tennessee State
Win9/13/14 3:30pm College Football 153 Arkansas +110* vs Texas Tech
 

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Ole Miss is off this week. They don't play LSU or Memphis. Ole Miss plays Memphis in two weeks, and Bama in three.

You can argue that Ole Miss shouldn't be 10. That's a valid argument. But, I could ague that they are better than at least two teams in front of them. If you think Ole Miss shouldn't be 10, surely you don't think LSU should 8, and you surely shouldn't think ND should be 9, right?

My mistake. You are correct. Ole Miss is off this week and have Memphis next week and then Bama.
I don't think LSU should be 8 and I don't think ND should be 9. I have Miss at 12. I have LSU at 14 and ND at 17. I don't have Wisky ranked. Miss has a brutal run after the Memphis game and I agree with you however I think they have a good shot at 4-1. 3-2 will be okay but this team is capable of 4-1. In that stretch I would worry more about A&M and Auburn, two teams that throw it down field. Both Bama and LSU dont throw the ball more than 10yds downfield and that plays right into the strength of that athletic front 7 of Miss. If they can forget "who" they are playing and just play the game I think they stand a great shot in both.

GL

WinOne!!
 

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Almost got one, Russ. Was a brutal triple OT loss in the only loser. I hedged $100 on Middle Tenn St. -1 so I didn't walk away a complete loser.

260959770-19/11/14 11:53am$10.00$458.17$0.00Loss4 Team Parlay
Win9/13/14 12:00pm College Football 125 East Carolina +335* vs Virginia Tech
Win9/13/14 12:00pm College Football 137 West Virginia +150* vs Maryland
Loss9/13/14 7:00pm College Football 147 Western Kentucky +105* vs Middle Tennessee State
Win9/13/14 3:30pm College Football 153 Arkansas +110* vs Texas Tech

What a price on East Carolina. You only have to hit one of those to make it worth your while.
 

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Taking a look at the ytd ranking for scoring offense and scoring defense and my average rankings(take the 2 rankings and divide by 2):

Stanford is #1 in scoring defense allowing an avg of 4.3 ppg. How in the hell did they lose to USC. Well Stanford only ranks #68 in scoring offense. Nope not the answer because USC ranks #63 in scoring offense and #38 in scoring defense. That’s why they play the games.

Baylor is #1 in scoring offense and #3 in scoring defense. Oklahoma is getting a lot of attention right now and they are ranked #15 in scoring offense and #8 in scoring defense. With all that hoopla that Stoops directed at the SEC I thought this was note worthy. Thru week 3 S. Carolina ranks #59 in scoring offense and #106 in scoring defense while Georgia ranks #31 in scoring offense and #88 in scoring defense. Ole Miss is ranked #18 in scoring offense and #4 in scoring defense.

It might surprise you to know that Arkansas ranks #9 in scoring offense (#76 in scoring defense).

Pitt is ranked #15 in offense and #16 in scoring defense.

Penn St has the #11 ranked team in scoring defense and ranks only #106 in scoring offense. They rank #59 in total offense. If they can increase their scoring this is a team to watch.

Texas ranks #102 in scoring offense and #53 in scoring defense. QB problems are killing them.

UCLA ranks #68 in scoring offense and #58 in scoring defense. It shows.

Wisconsin ranks #66 in scoring offense. Last year they ranked #27.

California is ranked #22 in scoring offense and #31 in scoring defense.

Duke is ranked #24 in scoring offense and #8 in scoring defense.

Florida St is ranked #44 in scoring offense and #49 in scoring defense. This week they face Clemson who is ranked #10 in scoring offense and #69 in scoring defense. (thought their defense was going to be a strong point)

Finally Texas A&M is ranked #4 in scoring offense and #13 in scoring defense. Not bad for a team that no longer has a guy named Johnny Whatever.
 

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Already down on another round robin (using same 4 teams making (4) 3 teamers and (1) 4 teamer.

Auburn -8.5, Duke -18.5, S. Carolina -21, and Texas A&M -31.

Can't wait to see the ML on Fl State/Clemson. You never know.
 

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R/1945............appreciate all the time and effort with the info..........BOL with your action this week.............indy
 

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I have been tinkering with my average rankings comparing YTD rankings to last years season ending rankings. Concentrating on the current top 25 the following teams are doing better so far this year than they did last year. Here they are in the order they have improved top to bottom:

Texas A&M, Nebraska, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Auburn, Baylor, Arizona St, and BYU

The teams on the current top 25 that are not up to last years stats are listed from worst up:
South Carolina, Florida St, UCLA, Oklahoma St, Clemson, and USC
The other top 25 teams are close to last years numbers.

Overall the most improved teams YTD appear to be the following starting with the most improved team:
California, Kentucky, Pitt, Tulsa, Arkansas, Florida, Memphis, TCU, Utah, UTEP, W. Virginia, NC State, Texas A&M, W. Mich, Miss St, Nebraska, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma

The teams whose numbers have dropped from last years are listed below starting with the team with the biggest drop:
S. Carolina, B. Green, Florida St, Boise St, Washington, UCLA, Okla St, Mich St, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, W. Kentucky, and Ohio St

Keep in mind the quality of teams played against so far this season. But the numbers indicate a swing one way or another. If a team has had an easy schedule so far and their numbers have dropped you might pay attention. If a team has had a tougher then usual schedule already this season you need to keep that in mind also.

If you are interested in any other teams just let me know.
 

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Utah does not get much hype but they have some interesting stats. To date they are:

#1 in Net Punting - #1 in Kickoff Returns - #3 in Scoring Offense - #4 in Team Passing Efficiency - #17 in 3rd Down Conversions. Their opponent this week< Michigan, is #121 in TO's

Auburn is #1 in 3rd Down Conversions
 

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