Week 3

[Kaboom]

Like CFB ... took a beating with my picks on Sunday .... 3-4 Rec on year NFL

but just leans for now ...which 90% of the time I play...

Leans can change up until Kickoff

N.O. + 2.5 ... I'm a believer

Young ... is the New Justin Fields ...without legs to run .... Young has ZERO Talent around him ....just like Fields had in Chicago ....and now ................The Panthers are now benching Bryce Young in favor of Andy Dalton


Justin Herbert is 26-8 lifetime when DEF allows < 27 points. Justin Herbert is 18-0 lifetime when DEF allows < 20 points.

 

[Kaboom]

Since leaving the Bengals, Dalton as a dog of 6 or more points is 1-4 SU and ATS

Lean

LV - 5 - 130

 

[LexingtonGambler]

GL!!!!!

 

[Kaboom]

If someone wants to work with me when trends come up .... send me a private message

Example ...like this one

Jax ....now 0-17 SU / ATS

 

[Kaboom]

Phi ....now 0-16 ATS ....

These trends are shown after the games take place....fyi

 

[Kaboom]

Since 2021, MNF games where the spread is less than 7 and the total is 40+

Under 31-6-1 Now

 

[Kaboom]

Week 2 NFL betting stats: Favorites: 5-9-1 ATS (8-7 SU) Overs: 5-9-1 Road teams: 10-4-1 ATS (9-6 SU)

 

[MMgble]

KillerSports

killersports.com

 

[Kaboom]

In the past 10 years, 0-2 teams have gone 52-33-1 (61%) ATS in Week 3 per
@Bet_Labs
0-2 Teams in Week 3: Giants +6.5 at CLE Titans -3 vs. GB Colts -1 vs. CHI Broncos +7 at TB Panthers +5.5 at LV Ravens -1 at DAL Rams +7.5 vs. SF Jaguars +5.5 at BUF Bengals -7.5 vs. WAS

 

[indiana]

K. Boom.....thank you for the updated info buddy.....indy

 

[Kaboom]

Caleb Williams vs Cover-3

#27 in EPA (-0.49)
#28 in success (25%)
#31 in YPA (3.0)

on 28 dropbacks

Colts use Cover-3 at the #1 highest rate in the NFL (67% of dropbacks)

it's on OC Shane Waldron to figure it out this week

you know you're getting it from Gus... FIGURE IT OUT

 

[Kaboom]

NY Jets
Moneyline
NE Patriots @ NY Jets
−270



PIT Steelers +5
Spread Alternate
LA Chargers @ PIT Steelers
−238


2 Pick Parlay

−106


Lean

Pitt + 3 - 175

 

[Kaboom]

Arizona ... 7-1 O/U as a Home Dog last 8

Det ............4-2 O/U as an Away Fav

Lean

Det / Ariz Over 49 - 156

 

[Kaboom]

NFL Trends .... win or lose ....always trying to help

Donations Accepted .... Private Message if an interest ... thx guys

NFL Week 3 Active Trends​

Through Week 2, Underdogs are 26-5 on a 6 Point Teaser​

• 6 Point Underdog Teaser legs are hitting at 80.6%
• Underdogs are 17-13-1 ATS so far this season
• Underdogs of 5+ are 9-1 ATS this season, 10-0 in 6pt Teasers

Home Dogs that are 0-2 ATS in Week 3 are 6-1 ATS since 2018​

• Rams (+7.5) vs 49ers
• These Home Dogs have won outright 4 times in this spot

The Under is 7-2 in Week 3 for 0-2 ATS Teams playing as Favorites​

• Titans (-2.5) vs Packers O/U 47.5
• Texans (-2.5) at Vikings O/U 46.5
• Ravens (-1.0) at Cowboys O/U 37.5
• These games have had an average O/U of 45.0 with an average final score of 22.0-18.8

The Buccaneers are 1-10 SU, 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Week 3 Games​

• Tampa Bay has lost 5 of these games outright as a Favorite
• Tampa Bay is being outscored 28.5-18.9 in this spot

The Under is 8-0-1 in the Jets Last 9 Week 3 Games​

• The Jets have not scored more than 20 points in any of these games
• These games have had an average O/U of 42.0 with an average final score of 23.2-11.1

The Ravens are 12-1 SU in their last 13 Games as a Favorite coming off a Loss as a Favorite​

• The Ravens are a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 in this spot on the Road
• The Ravens are holding opponents to 18.4 points per game in this spot

The Lions are 10-1 ATS in their Last 11 Non 1pm ET Games​

• Detroit has scored 24+ in 7 of the last 8 in this spot
• Detroit is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 in this spot on the Road

The Raiders are 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS in their Last 5 Non 1pm ET Games​

• The Raiders have won all of these games as Favorites, outscoring opponents 31.6-14.2
• The Raiders have scored 27+ in their last 3 in this spot
• The Raiders have allowed 20+ points once in these 5 games

The Browns are 5-0 SU, 4-0-1 ATS in their Last 5 1pm ET Games​

• The Browns are 3-0-1 ATS in this spot as a Favorite
• Cleveland is holding opponents to 14.2 points per game in this spot

The Bears are 6-0-1 ATS in their Last 7 1pm ET Games​

• Chicago is holding opponents to 19.1 points per game
• Chicago has allowed more than 20 points in only 2 of these games

The Saints are 6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS in their Last 6 1pm ET Games​

• New Orleans is outscoring opponents 35.7-11.8
• New Orleans has not allowed more than 19 points in any of these games
• New Orleans has scored 23+ points in all 6 games

The Over is 13-3 in the 49ers Last 16 Division Games as a 4+ Point Favorite​

• These games have had an average O/U of 44.6 with an average final score of 30.8-20.9
• The Over is 3-0 in this span against the Rams

The Over is 9-0 in the Colts Last 9 Games off a Game Scoring Fewer than 20 Points​

• These games have had an average O/U of 42.0 with an average final score of 28.9-24.2
• All 9 of these games have had 40+ points

The Ravens are 5-0 ATS since 2020 in Road Games coming off a Loss where they Lead after the Third Quarter​

• Baltimore has won 3 of these games outright as Dogs
• Limiting opponents to 19.8 points per game in this spot

The Under is 7-0 in the Chiefs Last 7 Games where they Trailed after the Third Quarter and Won the Game​

• These games have had an average O/U of 46.6 with an average final score of 22.1-13.1
• None of these 7 games have gone over this week's total of 46.5

The Chiefs are 6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS in their Last 6 Games where they Trailed after the Third Quarter and Won the Game​

• Kansas City is holding opponents to 12.0 points per game in this spot
• Held opponents to 13 or fewer points in the last 5 in this spot
• Kansas City has covered the previous 4 in this spot as Favorites, all with lines greater than -8.0

The Panthers are 0-7 SU, 0-7 ATS in their Last 7 Games coming off a Game with Less than 250 Total Yards​

• Carolina is being outscored 27.3-12.4 in this spot
• Carolina has scored 13 or fewer in 5 straight in this spot

Since 2021, the Packers are 10-1 ATS as a Dog coming off a Game with 350+ Total Yards​

• Green Bay is averaging 389 Total Yards in this spot
• Green Bay has won 9 of these games outright

Favorites of 6+ Points are 0-8 ATS this Season​

• These Favorites have lost 4 of these games outright already
• These teams are also 4-4 in 6pt Teasers
• Bengals, 49ers, Buccaneers, Browns and Jets are all 6+ point Favorites in Week 3

 

[jstover77]

Boom, always enjoy your data. I can't PM for some reason. Can you send me your donation info?

 

[Kaboom]

Boom, always enjoy your data. I can't PM for some reason. Can you send me your donation info?

Gotcha ...

 

[Kaboom]

Boom, always enjoy your data. I can't PM for some reason. Can you send me your donation info?

For some reason I can't private message as well ...

May be something with your account ?

Thanks for trying though..

Boomer

 

[Kaboom]

Your Call

KC/ATL​

KC is 16-0 to the UNDER when facing an opponent allowing a 67%+ completion percentage, and KC covered the spread by 1+ point last meeting. PLAY ON: u47.5............

BUF/JAX​

Home favorites in week 3+ are 20-1 SU off a game they scored 28+ points with a YPPT <10, and facing an opponent that's averaging <=21. PLAY ON: BUF ML

BAL/DAL​

BAL is 18-2 SU with lines <3 and their next game is primetime. PLAY ON: BAL ML

CIN/WSH​

CIN vs a non-divisional opponent is 16-2 to the UNDER facing an opponent that scored 2+ touchdowns and allowed 240+ total yards last meeting . PLAY ON: u47.5

TB/DEN​

Home favorites <=-4 are 22-3 SU (11.4pt margin) with totals<41 and their average points + their opponen'ts average points is greater than the total. PLAY ON: TB ALT (-10pt margin)

PROP LKS​

Travis Etienne o20.5 Receiving Yards (-114) Play to win .5u

• o20.5 in 3/L3 Primetime games vs AFC opponent's.
• Averaged 28.8 Receiving yards as an underdog vs AFC opponents
• RB's with 20+ Routes and a TPPR>20% all exceeded this number vs the Bills last season.
  Etienne is averaging a 0.23 TPPR so far, but not running a lot of routes, he hit 19 last week, and had under 20 routes just 5 times last season, expect a minimum of 20.

3-4 Rec on year NFL / Now a Lean Record

I scratched

LV - 5 Lean

Det / Ariz Over 49 - 156 Lean



New Lean List

N.O. + 2.5 .... got it early .. don't question it / thx

LAC/PIT​

LAC as a dog is 0-10 SU facing a team that has a qb pressure rate >= 27%. PLAY ON: PIT ML

Following the Trend ..but bought pts instead

Pitt + 3 - 175


Parlay Usage ....

KC / Atl Under 53 - 255

Buff ML - 230

Tb ML - 270

 

[indiana]

K. Boom....thank you for the updated info buddy......
here's to a winning weekend.....indy

 

[cashflow50]

A must see thread every week. Ty