Houston, by the looks of the spread, is not getting due respect. Onto that later.
Last week: Hit my first 3 posted plays, a 3*, a 4* and a 5*(changed to a 5* later in the thread). Hopefully no one paid any attention to the smaller plays that followed. They were mostly a disaster. By Friday, I had too much time on my hands and was looking for those "jewels", those plays that I might have missed earlier in the week. Some of them I stand by, and lost, others were just reaching….getting sucked in by a line that looked too good to be true(Kentucky +16 was a good example). I did this in the bowl season(25-16, +47 units), hitting my larger plays, and losing the majority of the smaller ones. Too many plays, too much searching for action for dubious reasons.
Now 13-13, + 6.05 units I will still be playing a few smaller plays. Let me lose my own money, hold onto yours. In reading others write-ups I can form a better opinion of a game/ a team, but not necessarily bet it.
4* Houston -7(-120) If another team(a SEC or Big 10 or Big 12 team say) beat Florida State in a bowl game by 14, scoring 38 on one of the nation's best defenses, and then began this year winning AT Oklahoma by 10 (Oklahoma scored 7 in garbage time), would they only be a 7 point favorite playing the Cinn. Bearcats, a team that lives and dies by their offense? No of course not. That Oklahoma win was no fluke either. The media played up the 109 yard FG return, but Houston dominated in other ways. They swarmed to the ball on defense, tackling well…they got the "push" on the DL, limiting greatly the great Sooner running game. If Baker Mayfield wasn't such an escape artist, the passing game might have flopped too. Houston's offense also outplayed the Oklahoma defense, and their receivers were getting open often. If Greg Ward hadn't missed a few deep open WRs, this score could have been uglier.
It's not just one game either. Tom Herman might be the new Chris Petersen, getting an incredible amount of success out of limited talent. Herman and his excellent coaching staff relate well to players and demand perfection on the practice field. This tough love approach, along with Herman's and Major Applewhite's creative offensive scheming, has Houston playing as well as anybody not named Alabama. And I'm not sure Houston's talent is that limited. They looked fast and athletic on the field vs. Oklahoma. If Greg Ward can pinpoint his passes a bit better, and he should be able to considering the Bearcats so-so secondary and weak pass rush, this could be a 17+ victory. Ward sat out the Lamar game, but is practicing all week and will not be limited.
Cinn. has beaten Purdue and UT Martin. It's hard to say where they are at. They'll be pumped for this game, but so will Houston. The Cougs know they have to run the table to get a spot in the championship playoff. With a Texas State on deck, there's no look ahead. Cincinnatti's QB, Hayden Moore, is still living off his record setting day last year vs. Memphis. In back to back games, he looked terrific. But overall, I think he's a bit overrated. He has a all new receiving corps and certainly hasn't been tested this year by anything resembling a quality defense. I just don't think Cinn. has the personnel to contain Ward and all the other facets of this Houston offense.
Last week: Hit my first 3 posted plays, a 3*, a 4* and a 5*(changed to a 5* later in the thread). Hopefully no one paid any attention to the smaller plays that followed. They were mostly a disaster. By Friday, I had too much time on my hands and was looking for those "jewels", those plays that I might have missed earlier in the week. Some of them I stand by, and lost, others were just reaching….getting sucked in by a line that looked too good to be true(Kentucky +16 was a good example). I did this in the bowl season(25-16, +47 units), hitting my larger plays, and losing the majority of the smaller ones. Too many plays, too much searching for action for dubious reasons.
Now 13-13, + 6.05 units I will still be playing a few smaller plays. Let me lose my own money, hold onto yours. In reading others write-ups I can form a better opinion of a game/ a team, but not necessarily bet it.
4* Houston -7(-120) If another team(a SEC or Big 10 or Big 12 team say) beat Florida State in a bowl game by 14, scoring 38 on one of the nation's best defenses, and then began this year winning AT Oklahoma by 10 (Oklahoma scored 7 in garbage time), would they only be a 7 point favorite playing the Cinn. Bearcats, a team that lives and dies by their offense? No of course not. That Oklahoma win was no fluke either. The media played up the 109 yard FG return, but Houston dominated in other ways. They swarmed to the ball on defense, tackling well…they got the "push" on the DL, limiting greatly the great Sooner running game. If Baker Mayfield wasn't such an escape artist, the passing game might have flopped too. Houston's offense also outplayed the Oklahoma defense, and their receivers were getting open often. If Greg Ward hadn't missed a few deep open WRs, this score could have been uglier.
It's not just one game either. Tom Herman might be the new Chris Petersen, getting an incredible amount of success out of limited talent. Herman and his excellent coaching staff relate well to players and demand perfection on the practice field. This tough love approach, along with Herman's and Major Applewhite's creative offensive scheming, has Houston playing as well as anybody not named Alabama. And I'm not sure Houston's talent is that limited. They looked fast and athletic on the field vs. Oklahoma. If Greg Ward can pinpoint his passes a bit better, and he should be able to considering the Bearcats so-so secondary and weak pass rush, this could be a 17+ victory. Ward sat out the Lamar game, but is practicing all week and will not be limited.
Cinn. has beaten Purdue and UT Martin. It's hard to say where they are at. They'll be pumped for this game, but so will Houston. The Cougs know they have to run the table to get a spot in the championship playoff. With a Texas State on deck, there's no look ahead. Cincinnatti's QB, Hayden Moore, is still living off his record setting day last year vs. Memphis. In back to back games, he looked terrific. But overall, I think he's a bit overrated. He has a all new receiving corps and certainly hasn't been tested this year by anything resembling a quality defense. I just don't think Cinn. has the personnel to contain Ward and all the other facets of this Houston offense.
