YTD 1-4 (down bundles)
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I am still amazed after all my years of betting, how a bad Week can affect your thinking for the following Week. Confidence is at a low and all you can see is holes in every angle you take on a game. However, the only way to get out of a zig is to bet with reasonable stakes and the mentality that you won the previous Week. With that in mind, I will try not to be too negative in my assessments.
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As I expected Baltimore got back on track last Week (wish I had backed them) Its obvious the difference Jon Ogden makes to the running game and Baltimore’s game plan, when they run well, everything else falls into place. This Week they have several injuries, most notable Todd Heap, which normally would make a challenged Offense look desperate. The only reason I am willing to take on The Bengals in this situation is that with injuries, they only have 6 D/Linemen to play the game and with Baltimore having no problems with their running game, it is only a matter of time before they get tired and start giving up big yardage. With both starting Safeties likely out , The Bengals already average Defense will make Kevin Johnson look like Randy. Even with the injuries on Defense and the match-ups, I would be wary of taking on The Bengals, but with both their starting Centers out, they seem to be having big problems on Offense and against a Defense which doesn’t need a break, I cant see them having too much success. The only thing The Ravens have been susceptible to so far this year has been the long pass, but if The Ravens do their stuff in the running game, The Bengals will only get 8-9 Offensive series against a savvy Defense.
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Baltimore -2.5
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Its hard to know where The Titans stand at the moment after playing Miami and Indianapolis, but knowing The Titans better than most Teams it seems to me they are struggling to know the best way forward on Offense after this years clear –out. Maybe its match-ups that makes them look like they have gone back to the old Titans but I have great confidence in Fisher doing the right moves. My biggest worry at the moment would be the Defense, which have not remedied any of last years problems and have injuries to boot. As long as Haynesworth is playing, The Titans Defense will always slow people up (Indy excluded) and in playing The Jags I don’t feel they will be tested. The Jags have won 2 games with zero Offense, so the question is If The Titans can do what Buffalo and Denver couldn’t. I think Fisher will turn it up a notch this Week , doing things on Offense that they haven’t tried this year and if successful, the spread is a formality.
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Tennessee –6
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My last play is the hardest one. As we all know, Arrowhead is a tough place to play but I feel The Texans have been unlucky so far this year, they could arguably be 2-0 but for turnovers. The main thing is they are moving the ball well and although San Diego and Detroit are no great shakes on Defense, neither is Kansas. Without too many turnovers I feel The Texans can score 21 minimum, so with the spread, Kansas have to score 28. If Priest does not play and their problems at W/R, I don’t see them doing this.
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Houston +7.5
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These point-spreads are only to make it easier for posting. I will probably as usual be betting mostly action-points and bets I consider the better value other than just the spread, just like I did last Week, taking Miami on the M/L instead of +5hno:
Whatever the outcomes it will be my usual Sunday night (6 pm GMT) after making sure the Sheep and Cows are OK, plenty of :drink:
Best of Luck on the Week-endk:
PS: Hansen And Old man ted, thanks for your responses to my threads, just wish you were'nt on the other sides
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o>I am still amazed after all my years of betting, how a bad Week can affect your thinking for the following Week. Confidence is at a low and all you can see is holes in every angle you take on a game. However, the only way to get out of a zig is to bet with reasonable stakes and the mentality that you won the previous Week. With that in mind, I will try not to be too negative in my assessments.
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></o>As I expected Baltimore got back on track last Week (wish I had backed them) Its obvious the difference Jon Ogden makes to the running game and Baltimore’s game plan, when they run well, everything else falls into place. This Week they have several injuries, most notable Todd Heap, which normally would make a challenged Offense look desperate. The only reason I am willing to take on The Bengals in this situation is that with injuries, they only have 6 D/Linemen to play the game and with Baltimore having no problems with their running game, it is only a matter of time before they get tired and start giving up big yardage. With both starting Safeties likely out , The Bengals already average Defense will make Kevin Johnson look like Randy. Even with the injuries on Defense and the match-ups, I would be wary of taking on The Bengals, but with both their starting Centers out, they seem to be having big problems on Offense and against a Defense which doesn’t need a break, I cant see them having too much success. The only thing The Ravens have been susceptible to so far this year has been the long pass, but if The Ravens do their stuff in the running game, The Bengals will only get 8-9 Offensive series against a savvy Defense.
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></o>Baltimore -2.5
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></o>Its hard to know where The Titans stand at the moment after playing Miami and Indianapolis, but knowing The Titans better than most Teams it seems to me they are struggling to know the best way forward on Offense after this years clear –out. Maybe its match-ups that makes them look like they have gone back to the old Titans but I have great confidence in Fisher doing the right moves. My biggest worry at the moment would be the Defense, which have not remedied any of last years problems and have injuries to boot. As long as Haynesworth is playing, The Titans Defense will always slow people up (Indy excluded) and in playing The Jags I don’t feel they will be tested. The Jags have won 2 games with zero Offense, so the question is If The Titans can do what Buffalo and Denver couldn’t. I think Fisher will turn it up a notch this Week , doing things on Offense that they haven’t tried this year and if successful, the spread is a formality.
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></o>Tennessee –6
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></o>My last play is the hardest one. As we all know, Arrowhead is a tough place to play but I feel The Texans have been unlucky so far this year, they could arguably be 2-0 but for turnovers. The main thing is they are moving the ball well and although San Diego and Detroit are no great shakes on Defense, neither is Kansas. Without too many turnovers I feel The Texans can score 21 minimum, so with the spread, Kansas have to score 28. If Priest does not play and their problems at W/R, I don’t see them doing this.
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></o>Houston +7.5
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></o>These point-spreads are only to make it easier for posting. I will probably as usual be betting mostly action-points and bets I consider the better value other than just the spread, just like I did last Week, taking Miami on the M/L instead of +5
hno: Whatever the outcomes it will be my usual Sunday night (6 pm GMT) after making sure the Sheep and Cows are OK, plenty of :drink:
Best of Luck on the Week-end
k: PS: Hansen And Old man ted, thanks for your responses to my threads, just wish you were'nt on the other sides
