Week 3 Picks

[GoForIt]

So far 0-2 ATS to start. How did that happen? Joe Pa scored 0 points for me in the 2nd half after leading 31-0 in Week 1. I played on Pete Carroll in a big game in Week 2. And yes Pete did win another big game, but failed to cover. Last year I started 2-0 ATS and then was 3-3 ATS anyway before finishing at 56% documented here at the RX. Thus, it is too early to panic especially after seeing records of some proven cappers around the NET. Some of them already have a gap of 7 or 9 (mine is 2) and that is not even counting the vig. So I feel somewhat fortunate that I have maintained discipline and money management after my greatest baseball run ever. Unfortunately, I don't post baseball much because I don't feel like tracking different units on different games each day to appease a forum. I don't even track units on basketball and football because each game is the same amount played anyway. However, since they are the same around (-110) I don't mind posting here. My first two plays of the year involved no situational systems and the majority of my plays have some situations involved along with other factors. I'll probably play more than 1 this week, but here is my first game and there is a situational system involved along with some other factors that I like
So to get it started for the week I just played this
TAKE MICHIGAN STATE +11 (MSU lost as big chalk and is now a big dog which usually is a great recipe in value from a situational standpoint, Furthermore, Sparty is 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS in this decade against Notre Dame and they have historically played well AT Notre Dame including a remarkable 4-0 SU in this decade) First play of the week is
MICHIGAN STATE +11

 

[GoForIt]

The second game will be another dog and this time it will be a home dog. Here I like Minnesota +14.5 (-120). This will be the 2nd game in the new stadium and the Gophers should be fired up for a Cal team that has run up the score on some inferior opponents. Both of those games were at home for Cal and now they travel to Minnesota. Cal's recent success at home and now traveling on the road along with some other factors puts them in a big negative situational system that is around 20% with a sample size of around 50. It also doesn't hurt that California has Oregon on deck after this game.
TAKE MINNESOTA +14.5 (-120)

 

[GoForIt]

Next will be a moneyline parlay with a game starting tonight (Tuesday Sept 15th) in a different sport, The odds are around -105 lay. Hopefully, I can get a winner. Either it will count as one win or one loss. In order for this to count as EXACTLY one win I need to hit everyone of the games below

Twins -230
Michigan -3000
Kansas -2500
Texas A&M -1600
South Carolina -1800
LSU -2500
Arizona State -1400

 

[GoForIt]

Next will be a moneyline parlay with a game starting tonight (Tuesday Sept 15th) in a different sport, The odds are around -105 lay. Hopefully, I can get a winner. Either it will count as one win or one loss. In order for this to count as EXACTLY one win I need to hit everyone of the games below

Twins -230
Michigan -3000
Kansas -2500
Texas A&M -1600
South Carolina -1800
LSU -2500
Arizona State -1400

I hit the first leg of my parlay tonight with the Twins which was the toughest to win (odds wise compared to the others), Hopefully the others teams can come through on this parlay which pays around -105
(about the same as a regular play)

 

[GoForIt]

BERKELEY, Calif. (AP)—Jeff Tedford still believes that his decision to fly cross country the day before an early start against Maryland had nothing to do with California’s flat performance in a loss.

With another 9 a.m. PDT start coming this Saturday against Minnesota, Tedford showed he’s not too stubborn to change his ways. The eighth-ranked Golden Bears (2-0) will fly to Minneapolis on Thursday afternoon, giving them all of Friday to get acclimated.

“I don’t want to be hardheaded about it,” Tedford said Tuesday. “I’ll see if it’s better. I don’t think there’s ever an issue with going a day before the game.”

This will be Cal’s sixth game that started before noon Pacific time in Tedford’s tenure at Cal, but the first time he has flown out on Thursday instead of Friday. The Bears won the first four games but the decision to leave Friday became an issue before last year’s game at Maryland.

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Cal arrived in Maryland on Friday night, went straight to the stadium for a walkthrough, ate dinner and then went to bed. The players woke up and went straight to the stadium. The criticism only intensified after Cal fell behind 21-3 one play into the second quarter on the way to a 35-27 loss to the Terrapins.

“I think whatever the announcers say on TV is what gets in everybody’s mind,” Tedford said. “We went to Maryland last year and our guys were bright-eyed. We didn’t play well. Because the announcers, all they could say was, ‘It’s early, it’s early, it’s early,’ everybody thinks it’s early. … We were sleeping but it wasn’t because of when we flew in there or anything like that. I really don’t believe that.”

While Tedford dismissed the time change as a factor, he does think that maybe his players felt rushed and could use a little time to relax in the hotel the day before this year’s game against Minnesota (2-0).

The Cal players who went to Maryland last year said they don’t know how much of a factor the early start was in their performance. They felt the East Coast humidity took more out of them then the early wake-up, but acknowledge there are adjustments that need to be made.

“At the hotel, you don’t have time to hang around and watch the other games and relax and get your body ready,” linebacker Eddie Young said. “When you hit the floor it’s time to go and go to the stadium. That’s the disadvantage of playing an early game.”

In fact, Cal had problems playing on the road no matter how far away or early in the morning the game was. After beating lowly Washington State 66-3 in their first road game last year, the Bears lost their final four road games, starting with the game at Maryland.

All four losses were to teams that went to bowl games, including games against two of the Pac-10’s top teams a year ago, Southern California and Oregon State.

“Last year we were a lot more inexperienced on offense,” quarterback Kevin Riley said. “This year we have more experienced players. We know what to do going into it. We’ll be ready going into this game. I have no question about that, especially after last year going to the East Coast and coming out flat and playing a bad game overall.”

LOL@Tedford psyching himself out already

 

[GoForIt]

FINAL CARD

12PM MINNESOTA +14.5 (-120)

3:30PM MICHIGAN STATE +11

7 Team Moneyline Parlay odds at around -105, every game below needs to win to count as EXACTLY ONE WIN
towards my record

1)Minnesota Twins -230 (TUESDAY WIN)

2)12PM-Kansas -2500 (against Duke)

3)12PM-Michigan -3000 (against Eastern Michigan)

4)7PM--South Carolina -1800 (against Florida Atlantic)

5)7PM--LSU -2500 (against La-Lafayette)

6)7PM--Texas A&M -1600 (against Utah State)

7)10PM-Arizona State -1400 (against La-Monroe)

 

[GoForIt]

the parlay looks good at -105, the other two are double-digit dogs (Michigan State and Minnesota) Hopefully, the Gophers will start things right, the public is about 80% on Cal and Michigan State is around 50/50 for those that care about that stuff, I did buy the half in the Gopher game so I have them at +14.5 (-120), Cal may have Best but the Gophers have Decker and an improving defense

 

[GoForIt]

so far 2-0 ATS as Minnesota +14.5 (-120 and buying the 1/2 point and posting it here was absolutely huge) and Michigan State +11 come through, I still have the 7 team moneyline parlay at -105 odds pending , 3 of them have hit already and remaining are South Carolina Moneyline, LSU moneyliine ,Texas A&M moneyline, Arizona State moneyline, if these hit then I can be 3-0 for the day

 

[GoForIt]

WENT 3-0 ATS for the day

MINNESOTA +14.5 (WIN, buying the 1/2 point and posting it here was huge)

MICHIGAN STATE +11 (WIN)

7-team Moneyline Parlay at around -105 odds (about the same as a regular ATS play)
Note....this moneyline parlay at -105 will count as EXACTLY ONE WIN towards my record

Minnesota Twins -230 (Tuesday Baseball WIN)
Kansas -2500 (WIN)
Michigan -3000 (WIN)
South Carolina -1800 (WIN)
Texas A&M -1600 (WIN)
LSU -2500 (WIN)
Arizona State -1400 (WIN)


3-0 ATS for the day and now 3-2 YTD, I went from 0% YTD to 60% YTD in one day, feels good, hopefully I can stay on track for next week

:cripwalk:

 

[PlaysnFades]

Great job!

 

[GoForIt]

Great job!

thank you and BOL to you this season.