Week 3, Part II: Quack

[ofred]

Guess I forgot to count the first two weekends of college football as Week 1. So last week, should've posted as Week 2. Who cares, right?

11-4, +11 units, but 2-2 on my top four plays. Don't regret playing Stanford after watching USC look physically matched vs. WMU. But USC must have been looking ahead and saving the best for the Trees. Ohio State, overrated, and I knew Barrett was a mediocre passer and that OU would key on the run. Still can't figure out why the Beavers were favored. Really wanted to load up on Minny but the spread had me wary. Still..5* was fine. YTD: 16-9, +10.95 units

7* Oregon -13.5 Don't be fooled by the score, the Ducks clearly outplayed Nebraska. I hit the +14 on the Huskers, but felt extremely lucky to win it. The Ducks got the big 28 point lead at half(and it could have been more), and then lost intensity in the 3rd quarter. Nebraska hit a few big plays for scores, but otherwise, Oregon held them in check. It seemed that Nebraska had 6-7 big plays, but otherwise did very little on offense. Taggart and Jim Leavitt have turned around this defense. They didn't get a lot of pass rush at times, but did hurry Tanner Lee to throw 4 picks and many incompletions. The Duck pass coverage was excellent considering how bad it was last year, and their run D was solid. Besides Lee's 4 ints, Oregon came close to stripping the ball a number of times. Turnover mentality.

And there is nothing wrong with Oregon's offense. The zero in the 2nd half was partly due to running too often(instead of mixing the run/pass in the 1H), partly due to Nebraska's D adjustments, and partly due to a few missed easy opportunities. QB Herbert has got great touch on the ball, can move around well, and occasionally runs when needed. His poise and decision-making is markedly improved from last year. Great OL, run game, and though some of the WRs are young, there is lots of talent there. The weak 2H will motivate the coaches and players to play for 60 minutes vs. Wyoming.

Wyoming was last year's darling in the Mt. West, and I do like their coach. But the amazing RB Brian Hill is gone(and his 1900 rushing yards), the top 4 of 5 receivers are gone, and now acclaimed QB Josh Allen has it all on his shoulders. Wyoming couldn't run the ball on Gardner-Webb last week(or on Iowa), and Allen has been under pressure in the first two games mostly due to defenses not keying on Hill anymore. Wyoming's D also got gashed last year in a few games, 69 to UNLV, 56 to UNM, 52 to Nebraska, and 34 to a horrible Nevada offense. Wyoming has been recruiting near the bottom of the Mt. West for the past many years, and their athleticism and speed are not too good. Oregon's offense will be too much to handle, and this time for 60 minutes. Taggart won 2 road blowouts last season with USF, at Syracuse and Cinn. USF went 4-1 on the road, and won their bowl game in a neutral site. He has this Duck team on an even keel, disciplined, and will use last week's 2H as motivation to crush the Cowboys. Wyoming was tough at home last year, but think their lack of talent catches up to them this year. Ducks are a complete team again, and finally have the coaching staff to be consistent.

 

[ofred]

4* WMU -17 Should have jumped on the 16 last night, but wanted to look at this one longer. WMU started the season with 2 grueling games, a hard fought one at USC in which they played even with the Trojans until the late 4th quarter when they gave up a pick 6 and another TD with 3:49 left in the game. Then they traveled to Lansing, and found out that AGAIN, MSU has a very good defense. They come home 0-2 and face an Idaho team that looks much weaker than last year.

Idaho went 9-4 last year, but they won 6 of those games against terrible teams. Their defense is rebuilt and it wasn't all that good last year. Last week, Idaho dropped a 28 point home loss to UNLV, giving up 7.1 ypc and 357 yards on the ground. This bodes well for WMU as they have a big OL and 3 RBs that give the Broncos speed, elusiveness and strength. Bogan and Franklin combined for 2,200 yards last year, and now add explosive Levante Bellamy to the mix. And remember UNLV lost their opener to FCS mid-level Howard in what was the largest pt. spread ever covered in CFB history. Idaho is now a one trick pony, QB Matt Linehan. He can be a tough QB to play against, but a lot of his better stats are against teams much weaker than this WMU team. Idaho has not had much success vs. Sacramento St. or UNLV running the ball, and will now face a WMU D that returns a lot of experience, has some good young players, and is battle-tested in their first 2 games. The Bronco defense has a defensive scheme that makes it difficult for passing offenses to read the play until after the ball is snapped. That should help vs. Linehan. They also have CB Darius Phillips, who is not only a great cover corner, but has returned 2 kickoffs for TDs this year. Idaho has decided to drop to the FCS next year, recruiting and fan support has been dismal, and I just think other than Linehan, the cupboard is bare.

A key to this game is whether the WMU QB, Jon Wassink, can show improvement from his first 2 games. He looked poised at USC, and apparently has an accurate arm. He struggled vs. the Spartan rush. But I think WMU will work extensively on pass protection in practice this week. Besides, if they run on Idaho often, they should control this game from start to finish. The Broncos are desperate for a convincing win, they know how to do that as evidenced from last year, and I think we'll see Idaho begin their 2017 free fall.

Looking at 1H plays on this and the Oregon game when the line comes out.

 

[indiana]

Fred.........nicely done last week.......continued success with this weeks action..........indy

 

[Saints2016]

Good luck this week! Just saw that Western Michigan has moved to -20.5

 

[ofred]

Good luck this week! Just saw that Western Michigan has moved to -20.5

And I thought 17 was bad. If you are tailing any of my picks, check Sunday night, and once each day…because lines move fast between Sunday and Monday evening. Of course, it can move in your favor too. Boise, Nebraska, UTSA and Minnesota all did that last week, so maybe it's a wash. And maybe this line comes down by end of the week.

 

[Saints2016]

Yeah, no worries at all. Just thought it was interesting that it moved so quickly

 

[ofred]

Have to make an adjustment on YTD: 16-9, +10.35 units not 10.95. Extra vig on a play.

3* Kansas St. -3 (-130)
1* Kansas St. -3.5 (-110)
Hard to gauge K St. and Vandy since they have both played an easy schedule. Neither have played a team with a defense. One reason I like K. State is that their QB, Jesse Ertz, is not suffering from a shoulder injury like last year, which he played through somewhat. From reports, he is throwing really well. So K. State has a dual attack again, along with a very strong defense. K State also has a bye next week, while Vandy has Alabama next week in a nationally televised game, followed by Florida and Georgia. 2-0, and possibly looking ahead to a brutal SEC schedule. Also, Vandy has had a big problem, in the Derek Mason era, staying focused week after week, and especially early in the season.

Vandy returns RB Ralph Webb, their playmaker RB from last year. But the Vandy run game has gone pretty much south against weak opponents, and though QB Kyle Shurmur has looked good, he hasn't seen a pass defense or pass rush nearly this good. Shurmur struggled badly in 2016 vs. the blitz, was sacked often and turned it over too often(9 TDs, 10 int). He's not exactly Mr. Mobile. The OL struggled last year and this year is again in the development stage. Vandy also lost star LB Zach Cunningham and a couple of other key defenders so I'm not sure if their defense will be as good.

 

[ofred]

2* BC/ Notre Dame- under 51.5 Glad I waited as this number bumped up a bit. BC has the same issues as in previous years. No real playmakers, a poor run game, and a young struggling QB. Freshman Anthony Brown got picked 3 times, was yanked, but will again start this week vs. a ND defense that is looking much better than anticipated. Coach Addazio, who is already old school, limits the risks vs. ND, hoping his defense can keep his team in the game. Notre Dame also has depended on the run and short pass in their first two games. Since BC has a very good secondary, I expect HC Kelly will keep new QB Wimbush from risking longer passes. Wimbush found out last week how hard it'll be vs. a top D to run the ball himself, gaining 1 yard on 16 carries. If you take out BC's games, in the past few years, vs. the Clemson-type teams, or maybe a bad FCS team, they almost always stay below this number.

 

[indiana]

Fred........solid write ups.........appreciate the time you put into your thought's...........BOL buddy.........indy

 

[ofred]

2* BC/ Notre Dame- under 51.5 Glad I waited as this number bumped up a bit. BC has the same issues as in previous years. No real playmakers, a poor run game, and a young struggling QB. Freshman Anthony Brown got picked 3 times, was yanked, but will again start this week vs. a ND defense that is looking much better than anticipated. Coach Addazio, who is already old school, limits the risks vs. ND, hoping his defense can keep his team in the game. Notre Dame also has depended on the run and short pass in their first two games. Since BC has a very good secondary, I expect HC Kelly will keep new QB Wimbush from risking longer passes. Wimbush found out last week how hard it'll be vs. a top D to run the ball himself, gaining 1 yard on 16 carries. If you take out BC's games, in the past few years, vs. the Clemson-type teams, or maybe a bad FCS team, they almost always stay below this number.

​1* BC/ ND- under 27 1H (-120)

 

[ofred]

Thanks Indy. GL to you.

 

[KDawgg]

You may or may not be aware of this...
Offensive plays per game
# 7 BC 87.
Big change from the past and didn't Bc's 4 turnovers cost the offense last week?

Enjoy your writeups, keep it up.

 

[ofred]

You may or may not be aware of this...
Offensive plays per game
# 7 BC 87.
Big change from the past and didn't Bc's 4 turnovers cost the offense last week?

Enjoy your writeups, keep it up.

I noticed it, and I didn't see the game, but I'm assuming it's because WF had short fields with all the turnovers, and BC had the ball a lot. Also, BC ran 18 plays in the last 3 minutes of the game just trying to make it respectable. BC will make a concerted effort this week to NOT turn the ball over(less risky play-calling), giving them more of those dull, time-sucking drives which they hope will lead to points.

 

[ofred]

2* Tulane +35.5 Oklahoma has a number of injuries that will keep some players out this week. TE Andrews is questionable, and one of Mayfield's favorite targets, and it looks like they'll keep him out. Mayfield also got knocked around a bit last week, and so to protect him for much bigger games than this, I think the Sooners will run more often, throw short passes, and not have him run around too much trying to pick up extra yards. Losing key players in games in which you are heavily favored will be one of Lincoln Riley's concerns this week. And Tulane can play defense. They played hard throughout all their games last year, and was one of the better Ds in the AAC. They return most of those players.

It was the offense that killed Tulane last year. HC Willie Fritz didn't have the personnel to run his option offense that was so successful when coaching at Georgia Southern. At GS, he took Georgia to OT, lost by 1 to NC State, and Ga. Tech by 4. His team went 18-7 in his last 2 years there, and knows how to get his players to play up to their competition. Now Oklahoma is going to win this, but they do have to prepare for this funky offense, while other coaches do some prep for future games more important on the schedule. Tulane may not have their starting QB, but their backup has experience in the offense and is capable of playing at almost the same level. In the 2nd half, Tulane will continue to run their offense no matter what the score. You won't see them pass often, even on 3rd downs. It's also possible that Oklahoma has a slight letdown after their huge win over the Buckeyes..revenge..the flag planting….all the media attention. 35.5 is the right number for me to jump on Tulane.

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

Oregon is 1-8 as DD favorites since Marriota graduated, FYI

 

[ofred]

Oregon is 1-8 as DD favorites since Marriota graduated, FYI

Mariota is the greatest Duck of all time in my opinion, and I think oddsmakers overrated the team after he left. The QB play dropped off and the defense got pathetic. Helfrich was also a poor hire..nice guy, but over his head. My play says this Duck team is much better than last year's team, and Wyoming is going to worsen from 2016. Those records(like the one noted) don't often indicate future results. And I may live in Oregon but am not a Duck fan. Bet on Nebraska last week, and have bet against Oregon many times. That all being said, this bet could lose. JMO.

 

[ofred]

1* USF/ Illinois- under 28.5(-115) 1H USF has been off for 2 weeks dealing with hurricane related distractions. They started slow vs. both Stony Brook and San Jose, and they seem to be a little off offensively. Maybe because their top RB, Marlon Mack, and top WR playmaker have graduated. The OL is shaky. Both teams run about 60-65% of the time, and other than Quinton Flowers, there's not too many playmakers on these 2 clubs. Illinois has somehow started the year 2-0, and actually much of that is due to an improved defense. If Stony Brook can keep USF at 3.1 ypc, can Illinois do the same? The Illini QB, Crouch, has a short leash and looks to be on the vanilla plan, 24 completions for 252 yards. USF is rusty and yet could pull away in the 2nd half.

 

[ofred]

2* Utah/ San Jose- under 59.5 The Utah QB, Tyler Huntley, has been a one man show for the Utah offense. He has run 37 times in two games, willing to lower his shoulder or stay in bounds for extra yardage. He is slight of build and if he continues to play like this, an injury is inevitable. Utah coaches are trying to diversify the offense so that Huntley doesn't take on too much. They are begging Huntley to avoid the big hits and accept less yardage. Against San Jose is an excellent place to start. Utah has a stellar defense in the front 7, San Jose can't run the ball, and have a freshman QB that has not produced much in the air. They gave up a FBS high 50 sacks last year and their OL is not much better. I'm not sure how they'll score unless it's garbage time. I think Utah can comfortably win this home game without risking Huntley having to carry the load too much.

Huntley has been carrying the load because the rest of the Utah offense has sputtered. Their OL has been a concern since camp, and other than Oregon transfer, Darren Carrington, there isn't a go-to receiver. San Jose has not been known for great D, but this year they do return many experienced defenders, and add some depth. Utah has been 5-1 ATS in early season non-conference games the last 2 years. PAC 12 play begins next week, and they'll need Huntley, or their season turns mediocre.

 

[PatsFanatic]

Thank you for sharing Fred...GL this week

 

[ofred]

1* Bethune-Cookman +27.5 No, I did not pull this one out of my a**. These FCS plays are worth looking for if you can find one where the FCS team has a very good QB vs. a FBS underachiever. FAU is the underachiever, although Lane Kiffin's team pretty much stunk before he came along. FAU covered vs. Wisconsin last week, but if you look at the game, Wisconsin dominated. FAU scored on one long play and then again on a very short field after a Badger TO. Nothing otherwise. FAU got rolled by Navy, and has been run on this year like a steamroller going over a pile of feathers. FAU has not been able to run at more than 1-2 ypc, none of their QBs are better than average passers, and BCU has a dual threat QB Larry Brihm that played well vs. Miami, FL(22/35, 212 yards) and is a very good dual threat. Brihm was MEAC player of the week last week after passing for 354 yards, going 25 for 39. FAU is bigger, and will get their scores, but Brihm will keep his team in the game vs. a weak FAU defense.