game #1 (game of the week)
green bay was one of the most improved teams last year and my golden rule is to fade those teams early on regardless the venue, and during the season when they are on the road or favored. green bay is a big exception to this rule, as i stated earlier this season, because the expectations were very low for this team when favre left them. in reality, this team could be even better with rodgers. not because rodgers is better than favre (and he is not, not yet), but because this guy brings a new energy to this team, new blood that was much needed. the defense is stepping up to help him out, and the running game appeared out of nowhere. their o/d lines are doing a great job protecting rodgers and distracting the opponents qb's so far only one sack allowed and 6 forced. no interceptions thrown, 4 times interceptiong the opponent. in week one they won against a running team making the stops when needed. in week two they've won against a passing team, again making the key stops when needed. in two games only this team has learned how to protect the lead (vs minnesota), and how to win when trailing in the fourth quarter (last week vs detroit). extremely valuable experience for this young team that will not surrender against the mighty cowboys.
dallas has a good team and there is no doubt about that, but as i stated last week when i made philly my play of the week, romo and that entire team is mistake prone, and not ready (will they ever be ?) to take it to the next level. it was funny to see the cameras on the field after the mnf game with all philly and dallas players shaking hands and congratulating, while t.o. was posing for the fans and for the cameras all alone. that's what tells me all i need to know about this team. they are just not the championship calliber team. and only a true champion will win a crazy, draining rivalery mnf game and go on the road, to green bay, and beat another good team in another nationally televised game. dallas is not that kind of a team and i can see them losing straight up.
dallas defense is not very good right now. cleveland scored 10 points on them with only 205 yards of total offense. they went to dalass' red zone twice scoring a td and a fg. imagine what a good team can do if cleveland, a team with an offense that is not working at all can capitalize on their only two opportunities. and then the eagles came to town, and we all know what happened in that game.
this game has been dominated by the home team in the past and green bay will try to revenge their loss to dallas from last season. remember, last year the packerd went to dallas with favre, and favre has never won in that building prior to the game. the packers got behind big, very early on, and favre left the game due to the injury. what happened next ? rodgers got into the game and went 18/26 for 201 yards, 1 TD and no interceptions + 30 yards rushing on 5 carries including a 13 yard run. He got the Packers within 3 pts in the third quarter and then again within a TD in the fourth. He has the chance now to do it on his own, without being down by double digits when he enters the game.
road favorites after a home favorite win are only 39-87 ats against the home dog after a road win. and if the road favorite has no more than 1 win more than the home dog and if neither team has been a huge favorite in previous game, those road faves are 7-42 ats.
the cowboys are on a 6 game ats losing streak against the nfc. the packers are 14-5-1 ats in last 20 vs the nfc. the packers are also 7-1 in revenge situation.
you are probably wondering how will dallas do after that crazy high scoring game last week ? here is one of my favorite systems...
small favorites of less than -4 with no bye are 1-23 ats after a close high scoring game where both teams scored 30+ and with the winner being decided by 5 or less (the system is good thruout the season but this record reflects first 10 weeks)
green bay +3 game of the week
green bay was one of the most improved teams last year and my golden rule is to fade those teams early on regardless the venue, and during the season when they are on the road or favored. green bay is a big exception to this rule, as i stated earlier this season, because the expectations were very low for this team when favre left them. in reality, this team could be even better with rodgers. not because rodgers is better than favre (and he is not, not yet), but because this guy brings a new energy to this team, new blood that was much needed. the defense is stepping up to help him out, and the running game appeared out of nowhere. their o/d lines are doing a great job protecting rodgers and distracting the opponents qb's so far only one sack allowed and 6 forced. no interceptions thrown, 4 times interceptiong the opponent. in week one they won against a running team making the stops when needed. in week two they've won against a passing team, again making the key stops when needed. in two games only this team has learned how to protect the lead (vs minnesota), and how to win when trailing in the fourth quarter (last week vs detroit). extremely valuable experience for this young team that will not surrender against the mighty cowboys.
dallas has a good team and there is no doubt about that, but as i stated last week when i made philly my play of the week, romo and that entire team is mistake prone, and not ready (will they ever be ?) to take it to the next level. it was funny to see the cameras on the field after the mnf game with all philly and dallas players shaking hands and congratulating, while t.o. was posing for the fans and for the cameras all alone. that's what tells me all i need to know about this team. they are just not the championship calliber team. and only a true champion will win a crazy, draining rivalery mnf game and go on the road, to green bay, and beat another good team in another nationally televised game. dallas is not that kind of a team and i can see them losing straight up.
dallas defense is not very good right now. cleveland scored 10 points on them with only 205 yards of total offense. they went to dalass' red zone twice scoring a td and a fg. imagine what a good team can do if cleveland, a team with an offense that is not working at all can capitalize on their only two opportunities. and then the eagles came to town, and we all know what happened in that game.
this game has been dominated by the home team in the past and green bay will try to revenge their loss to dallas from last season. remember, last year the packerd went to dallas with favre, and favre has never won in that building prior to the game. the packers got behind big, very early on, and favre left the game due to the injury. what happened next ? rodgers got into the game and went 18/26 for 201 yards, 1 TD and no interceptions + 30 yards rushing on 5 carries including a 13 yard run. He got the Packers within 3 pts in the third quarter and then again within a TD in the fourth. He has the chance now to do it on his own, without being down by double digits when he enters the game.
road favorites after a home favorite win are only 39-87 ats against the home dog after a road win. and if the road favorite has no more than 1 win more than the home dog and if neither team has been a huge favorite in previous game, those road faves are 7-42 ats.
the cowboys are on a 6 game ats losing streak against the nfc. the packers are 14-5-1 ats in last 20 vs the nfc. the packers are also 7-1 in revenge situation.
you are probably wondering how will dallas do after that crazy high scoring game last week ? here is one of my favorite systems...
small favorites of less than -4 with no bye are 1-23 ats after a close high scoring game where both teams scored 30+ and with the winner being decided by 5 or less (the system is good thruout the season but this record reflects first 10 weeks)
green bay +3 game of the week
