Week 3:Breaking Even

[ofred]

After a dreadful start, The A&M win (cover, not win…what an embarrassing loss for the Aggies), I'm back to 5-5, -.05 units. Yes, down 1/20 of a unit. Georgia led 31-0 playing a very vanilla offense, but dominating on defense. QB Eason got hit out of bounds and is questionable for ND game as of Sunday.

6* Indiana -3 Yes, they ended up losing by 28 in the end to OSU, but I was impressed by Indiana for a number of reasons. Athletically they couldn't match up, but they weren't far off, yet physically they hung there with possibly the best team in the country. Indiana's defense is very good, but got worn down in the late 3rd quarter by a bruising OSU running game. I also think they not only have a great QB(Lagow) to WR(Cobbs) combo, but their whole receiving corps looks pretty strong. Lagow looked "on" despite being under pressure from the top notch OSU DL. And Indiana will be able to run much better, I predict, vs. Virginia than vs. that Buckeye line. This play says that Indiana has a good season, and this opening loss only makes them better in the long run. They have couple extra days also to prep and heal.

Virginia looks like a team that will have trouble running the football, and had trouble protecting their QB last year. This year's OL also looks to be inexperienced and mediocre. They opened vs. Wm. and Mary with a win, but went 1-5 last year at home and I just don't see playmakers on either side of the ball.


6* Ohio St. -7 (-120) I was impressed by Indiana, but Ohio State really showed what they got in the 2nd half. This team really has almost no weaknesses. You might say their secondary gave up a lot of yards in their 1st game, but their cover guys were hanging well with the Indiana receivers, and Lagow was just placing the ball in there very accurately at times, threading the needle or throwing perfect fades. I also don't think Oklahoma has the receiver corps or backs that compare to last year's. Whipping a miserable UTEP team doesn't prepare the Sooners well for this kind of game. The key here is that DC Greg Schiano will find a way to reduce the effectiveness of Baker Mayfield. And without Mixon and Perrine, or a running game that keeps DLs honest, we'll see those OSU front guys breaking down the OU pocket and while containing Mayfield from scrambling for extra time. The OU OL is good, but it will be tested by an even better OSU DL. Like that the Buckeyes are at home, with a tough opener under their belt. Also, Ohio State is the much better running team.


6* Stanford +7 (-120) I can't remember the last time USC came out early in the season and played well vs. a really good team. USC got pushed around by the WMU DL and OL on Saturday. WMU ran on them for 263 yards, and if their QB wasn't in his first game (at USC in a huge game), this score would have been closer. USC scored early, but looked over confident or complacent after that. They just didn't have that "team" thing going for them. WMU finally got worn down in the 4th quarter by the heat and couldn't match scores anymore. Darnold looked good, but his OL looks shaky at times. Watch out for a much stronger Stanford DL that has had 2 weeks to prepare for this. Stanford is somewhat untested since Rice was cream puff, but Bryce Love might replace Mccaffrey just fine, and the defense looks to be as good as ever. Stanford has the best defensive back 7 or 8 in the PAC 12 bar none.

 

[cashflow50]

gl brother. With you on the trees

 

[fishmustdie]

I follow the Trojans very closely. Stanford getting 7 points is a gift. I see a very close game likely the trees coming out on top, great pick o fred. Might even have to bet the trees moneyline.

 

[solrosenberg]

Time for me to eat some crow here. A few weeks back Conan said he expected Stanford to beat USC, I said as a Stanford fan I didn't see it. After Western Michigan ran through USC as Nick Saban might describe "like shit through a tin horn" I could see Stanford winning this one. Line dropped from 10 1/2 to 6 1/2 in that time frame.

 

[ofred]

Ash falling here in Portland from fires to the East. It's like Mt. St Helens all over again.

Glad this forum keeps me anonymous since these anti-Oregon plays would rile some friends and acquaintances who love their Ducks and Beavers.


3* Minnesota ML (+110)
2* Minnesota +3 (-140)
Interesting early line movement here showing money coming on OSU. Now Minny +2, but is it possible some big players are trying to get this to 3 before they hammer Minnesota? I doubt it, but if they had seen the Beavers play these past 2 weeks, they would jump on the 2 now. The Beavs pulled out the win vs. Portland State, and I watched much of it. But Portland State looked like the better team. PSU is picked to finish in the bottom third of the Big Sky Conference. They are better than that. They might have the worst kicker in the Big Sky though- 4 missed PATs and a game tying FG late. They should have won, out-yarding OSU by 126, and gashing them on the ground for 291 yards and 5.4 ypc. This from a team that couldn't get squat at BYU on the ground. PSU's true frosh QB got injured in the 2nd half, and his backup(a converted WR), also moved the ball easily. This Beaver team was in their home opener after a blowout loss, and yet they seem overwhelmed at times. They get no push from their OL to help a pretty good RB group get some yards. Their DL also looks easily pushed around.

I think I can partially explain it. Their best 6 players last year, when they played much better than the season before, are all gone. Two were on the OL, 2 were in the secondary, WR Bolden, and one was their top tackler, Caleb Saulo. And Gary Andersen doesn't have the talent to replace them. I like GA, but I'm starting to think he's too intense. That works for the "big game", but week after week it can wear down a team's energy. Andersen looks like a future stroke victim, and I hope he can take care of himself a bit.

Minnesota was underwhelming vs. Buffalo their first game, but they are going to be the most physical team OSU has faced. Their OL is young, and struggled to run block game one, but their OL coach, Ed Warinner, is one of the best, and I think we'll see an improvement this week. The Gophers have two excellent RBs in Brooks and Smith, who combined for 1,900 yards on the ground last season. I think they'll get it going against this weak OSU DL. Minny also has a dual threat QB that has his first game under his belt, and whose running I think will give the Beaver D fits. He's a decent passer although he might share the snaps with another QB. Minnesota also has a very good LB corps which should keep the Beaver running game in check. I like Minnesota on the road here, with a win under their belt, and without the distractions of home. OSU students will not be in school yet, and I expect another docile Beaver crowd this Saturday. Minnesota also has a couple of extra days to prep.

 

[ofred]

2* Nebraska +14 This line opened at 4 and my play says the line makers can't be that far off. They aren't convinced, like me, that the 77 Oregon dropped on Southern Utah means they are all the way back to greatness. Oregon left their starters in well into the 2nd half, and Southern Utah has 50 freshmen on their roster. The thinking is that if Nebraska's defense gave up a s**tload of passing yards to Arkansas State, then Oregon will do even more damage. I do think Taggart and his coaching staff will make a big difference for this Duck team, but remember they were a complete mess last season. The defense was possibly worse than Cal's. I just don't think a defense can magically turn it around that fast. Bad tackling, poor coverage and a DL that couldn't push over a marshmallow last year, won't just this year become effective over night. Their offense has a great run game, but they do have a lot of inexperience at WR.

I just can't give up 14 to this Nebraska team. Mike Riley returns to Oregon, and he has a lot of experience playing in Autzen. He'll have his guys prepared for the noise. Nebraska has a pretty good offensive team themselves. QB Tanner Lee was considered the best QB at the Manning camp this summer, is a high NFL prospect, and has great touch on long passes, accuracy, mobility (though not a runner) and the intangibles to be a very good QB and leader. They can also run the ball, led by Tre Bryant who nearly eclipsed the 200 yard mark. Also, remember, Arkansas State is a far better team than Southern Utah, and is expected to be a top contender in their conference. Nebraska will be a physical team that struggled defending the pass last week. Their secondary is better than that. I like the Ducks to return to a decent bowl game this year, but I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid yet. They could get upset here, and 14 is too good to pass up.

 

[HacheMan]

GL this weekend

 

[ofred]

GL this weekend

Thank you Hache. Hoping to fly like a Jordan dunk.

 

[doogieboy]

How about an Oregon ova?

 

[ofred]

How about an Oregon ova?

Thinking about it. Both offenses could hit the 40+ mark.

 

[ofred]

4* Georgia +4 Snoozed on the +5 and now only get 4. Still, like having points in a game Georgia has a good chance at winning. I think the line change indicates that big bettors like what they see in QB Jake Fromm. And the Georgia defense, under Kirby Smart, is starting to have that look of excellence. Appalachian State's triple option never got it going and they never get stuffed that easily. It's not yet up to par with his Bama defenses, but it has that mentality, discipline and swarm to the ball that Smart teaches so well. Fromm might end up being in that Wally Pipp situation. QB Jacob Eason, who looked decent last year as a true, gets injured but possibly doesn't get his job back….BIG IF…. Fromm performs really well. Fromm enrolled early, played well in the spring game, learned the playbook, fills in last week and impresses, and seems to have that poise and competitiveness that could help him a lot at ND. Fromm is more mobile and doesn't have as much pressure due to his team's strong run game.

Notre Dame was impressive, as was their freshman QB, vs. Temple last week. But Temple is a shell of last year's team. Their defense looks completely rebuilt, the great linebacker corps is gone, and their new QB looked like a big drop-off from Phillip Walker. Their best 2 OL(the LT and C) have both graduated, and they now have an all new coaching staff and D/O systems to learn. Brian Kelly has been a huge disappointment to ND fans as he fired asst. coaches, and blamed players, for losses that were ultimately his responsibility. Last year's 4-8 team had a dreadful defense, and I doubt they have improved significantly this year. We'll see, but Temple was not a good gauge.

I could lose this play and still feel it was the right play. The better D, the better run game, and the better coach…Georgia could even win this by pretty good margin. Jake Fromm's coming-out party?

 

[ofred]

3* Utah/ BYU- under 46.5 Thought this total would be 40-42, so this seems like a good number. BYU's recruitment has fallen on hard times in recent years, and since their top 2 rushers and top 3 receivers have graduated, there seems to be a lack of talent at the offensive skill positions. Their receivers get almost no separation. Their OL was supposed to be the strength of the offense, but they have been pushed around by both LSU and Portland State. QB Magnum's talents appear negated by these factors. Utah is breaking in a new offensive line, QB and some skill positions. But the Utes have possibly the best DL in the PAC 12 and a LB corps that is pretty good too. I'm not sure their green secondary will be tested much IF the front guys get a lot of pressure on Magnum. Coach Sitake was a respected DC, and the BYU offense looks almost neglected two games into the season.

BYU's defense got beat up by a great LSU run game, but Utah doesn't have anything near the OL or backs to be at that level. BYU's D is well-coached, and should improve here in this rivalry game. These BYU-Utah games have been traditionally low scoring, and I expect this will be a run-heavy, clock draining type game again. BYU has an good, experienced secondary that should keep the Utes pass game in check. Last week, Ute QB, Tyler Huntley threw mostly short passes and his team ran about 2/3 of the time. They beat North Dakota(not to be confused with powerhouse ND ST.) by 20, but the Ute offense is still evolving. This play is on the light side of a 3* because early season totals seem harder to predict for me.

 

[kcody9]

Indiana :toast:

 

[ofred]

Ash falling here in Portland from fires to the East. It's like Mt. St Helens all over again.

Glad this forum keeps me anonymous since these anti-Oregon plays would rile some friends and acquaintances who love their Ducks and Beavers.


3* Minnesota ML (+110)
2* Minnesota +3 (-140)
Interesting early line movement here showing money coming on OSU. Now Minny +2, but is it possible some big players are trying to get this to 3 before they hammer Minnesota? I doubt it, but if they had seen the Beavers play these past 2 weeks, they would jump on the 2 now. The Beavs pulled out the win vs. Portland State, and I watched much of it. But Portland State looked like the better team. PSU is picked to finish in the bottom third of the Big Sky Conference. They are better than that. They might have the worst kicker in the Big Sky though- 4 missed PATs and a game tying FG late. They should have won, out-yarding OSU by 126, and gashing them on the ground for 291 yards and 5.4 ypc. This from a team that couldn't get squat at BYU on the ground. PSU's true frosh QB got injured in the 2nd half, and his backup(a converted WR), also moved the ball easily. This Beaver team was in their home opener after a blowout loss, and yet they seem overwhelmed at times. They get no push from their OL to help a pretty good RB group get some yards. Their DL also looks easily pushed around.

I think I can partially explain it. Their best 6 players last year, when they played much better than the season before, are all gone. Two were on the OL, 2 were in the secondary, WR Bolden, and one was their top tackler, Caleb Saulo. And Gary Andersen doesn't have the talent to replace them. I like GA, but I'm starting to think he's too intense. That works for the "big game", but week after week it can wear down a team's energy. Andersen looks like a future stroke victim, and I hope he can take care of himself a bit.

Minnesota was underwhelming vs. Buffalo their first game, but they are going to be the most physical team OSU has faced. Their OL is young, and struggled to run block game one, but their OL coach, Ed Warinner, is one of the best, and I think we'll see an improvement this week. The Gophers have two excellent RBs in Brooks and Smith, who combined for 1,900 yards on the ground last season. I think they'll get it going against this weak OSU DL. Minny also has a dual threat QB that has his first game under his belt, and whose running I think will give the Beaver D fits. He's a decent passer although he might share the snaps with another QB. Minnesota also has a very good LB corps which should keep the Beaver running game in check. I like Minnesota on the road here, with a win under their belt, and without the distractions of home. OSU students will not be in school yet, and I expect another docile Beaver crowd this Saturday. Minnesota also has a couple of extra days to prep.

DL Faliagua doubtful…a DL leader and probably their best D lineman. WR Seth Collins still out…probably their most elusive WR. Beaver OL and DL have played like s**t. The OL can't hold their blocks for what should be a solid running game. Can't figure out why Beavs are favored. Minny coach Fleck is annoyingly optimistic, but did turn WMU around from a a bottom MAC team to their top team.

 

[ofred]

2* UTSA +17 I get it why Baylor is favored by 17 points even though they lost to FCS Liberty at home last week. Liberty, an FCS team that got zero votes in the coaches poll for the Top 25. Baylor should be ready to kill someone after that embarrassment. They are mid-level Big 12 team(or not) that has some left over talent from previous years. It's Baylor, for god sakes, the team that routinely blew out teams like UTSA by 40 or 50 week after week. And then there is Coach Matt Rhule, highly respected guy who turned Temple around. But….

UTSA, like Indiana, never seems intimidated by greater teams. They gave A&M and Arizona State close games last year as huge underdogs, whipped S. Miss and MTSU, and this year returns almost all of their best talent. They have to fix one glaring problem, which was the pass blocking that gave up way too many sacks. Hoping they did. Otherwise, the Roadrunners are a team that tackles well, plays physically, has recruited well the past two years, and has a good running game with a dual threat QB that played pretty well considering the pressure he was under. QB Dalton Sturm, actually, was part of the problem- holding the ball too long and scrambling too often. Word from their camp is that THIS has been something that they focused on quite a bit.

Baylor is kind of a mess. They are playing a lot of true freshmen, the secondary is banged up and raw. They lost their top 2 RBs and top DL to injury, and this doesn't even include the talent that graduated. Anu Solomon, their QB from Arizona, was under constant pressure last week but played fairly well. But Liberty's D is NOT good. I expect UTSA's defense to be more of a challenge. Coach Frank Wilson, who spent 5 years at LSU, brought a mentality of "never quitting despite the talent deficiencies". And this play says the talent gap isn't that far apart. Baylor will surprise us as to how far they will be falling.

 

[Saints2016]

4* Georgia +4 Snoozed on the +5 and now only get 4. Still, like having points in a game Georgia has a good chance at winning. I think the line change indicates that big bettors like what they see in QB Jake Fromm. And the Georgia defense, under Kirby Smart, is starting to have that look of excellence. Appalachian State's triple option never got it going and they never get stuffed that easily. It's not yet up to par with his Bama defenses, but it has that mentality, discipline and swarm to the ball that Smart teaches so well. Fromm might end up being in that Wally Pipp situation. QB Jacob Eason, who looked decent last year as a true, gets injured but possibly doesn't get his job back….BIG IF…. Fromm performs really well. Fromm enrolled early, played well in the spring game, learned the playbook, fills in last week and impresses, and seems to have that poise and competitiveness that could help him a lot at ND. Fromm is more mobile and doesn't have as much pressure due to his team's strong run game.

Notre Dame was impressive, as was their freshman QB, vs. Temple last week. But Temple is a shell of last year's team. Their defense looks completely rebuilt, the great linebacker corps is gone, and their new QB looked like a big drop-off from Phillip Walker. Their best 2 OL(the LT and C) have both graduated, and they now have an all new coaching staff and D/O systems to learn. Brian Kelly has been a huge disappointment to ND fans as he fired asst. coaches, and blamed players, for losses that were ultimately his responsibility. Last year's 4-8 team had a dreadful defense, and I doubt they have improved significantly this year. We'll see, but Temple was not a good gauge.

I could lose this play and still feel it was the right play. The better D, the better run game, and the better coach…Georgia could even win this by pretty good margin. Jake Fromm's coming-out party?

I like Georgia here as well. Still not sure I can trust ND, they are kind of the Cowboys of the College world. However, the line just moved to +5.5 on 5Dimes.

 

[ofred]

I sure got the short end of that Georgia spread. In another thread, there's a mention of Georgia players possibly being preoccupied with IRMA. Lots of them are likely from Florida and Georgia, so maybe the line reflects that???

 

[ofred]

1* Boise St. +10 Might up this to a 2* later. I know Boise isn't what they used to be. But they usually pull out some new tricks early in the season, things Wazzu won't see any film on from the Troy game. Boise has a little of that Oregon thing..they'll try almost any play on any down, and therefore are less predictable. WSU also has a long history of laying an egg early in the season, sometimes losing to FCS teams. Under Leach, the Cougs take a while to get going each season. Boise looks like they have a solid defense, and if they're smart they'll play a "bend, don't break" pass defense on Falk and the Wazzu offense. It's worked against them before, and often leads to Cougar FGs instead of TDs. Boise QB Rypien is accurate and can throw any pass, but he is missing his star RB from last year, and has been known to turn the ball over. These two recruit from the same areas, separated by only 300 miles, and have a semi-rivalry between fans in Idaho and Eastern Washington.

 

[ofred]

Taking Boise on the high side of a 1*. These last plays are on the light side of a 1*:

1* Charlotte +35 Kansas State has been recruiting poorly for the last few years, and just doesn't have the team speed needed to compete with the Big 12 powers anymore. K State will run the ball often, using clock, and preserve some of their playbook for Vandy next week, and the Big 12 schedule thereafter. Charlotte is slowly starting to be more competitive as seen by their last few games in 2016. Like their dual threat QB Hassan Klugh, and his ability to pass and make plays with his feet.

1* Montana +40.5
UW coach Chris Petersen has been known to take mercy on lesser teams, and this year's team doesn't have the depth of last year's. Rutgers played UW pretty well, and I think the Husky D is a couple steps down from last year. Montana used to be a Big Sky powerhouse, but is still good enough offensively to score a couple TDs in the 2nd half and stay within the number. At this number, I couldn't resist. Husky's stay conservative.

1* Louisville -9.5 They played sloppy last week vs. Purdue, but you could see the talent gap on the field. I expect Louisville will have cleaned it up coming into week 2, and really think their D will shine vs. a UNC offense that has lost their skill players and QB. UNC also made Cal's new QB look like a stud, and their D also looks in rebuilding mode. Lamar Jackson is too much of a one man show, but his passing accuracy has improved.

1* Wake Forest pk. This is a play of one coach(WF's Dave Clawson) who finally has the offensive players he needs to open up the Wake O vs. a coach(Addazio) who still looks like he's game-planning from the 70s. BC still can't run the ball and has a conservative passing game. Clawson is a creative offensive coach that thrived in previous jobs. His OL also looks better than in previous years.

 

[Skeeter123]

GL this weekend fred. Thanks for posting and providing your writeups...truly great info.

:toast: