Week 3 ACC Plays

[jimmyshivers]

6-9 -11.3 units YTD

Off to a slow start here, but we've now seen everyone at least once and we have some idea what to expect from everybody. Hopefully I can get things turned around this week.

**** Boston College Eagles +6.5

I absolutely refuse to lay a TD with a team where Clemson is right now. I don't like the way the Clemson offense is working right now; way too much of their gameplan is revolving around Spiller and they haven't done much in the way of getting Kyle Parker more comfortable in the offense (45% cp and 3 int's in the first 2 games). BC is solid defensively as their HC is a defense-oriented kind of coach and I think they will be ready for what has been a 1-Dimensional Tiger Offense.

Lets look at the Tiger TD's this year. They have scored 7 TD's in 2 games and only one of them has been shorter than 33 yards! This shows me a lack of consistency in their offense and makes me question their ability to put together scoring drives. They have been out FD'ed and out TOP'ed in both games so far as well so if the offense can't give a better effort against what looks like an even stronger defense they will have deep difficulties in controlling the ball and scoring points.

I don't think that you can read too much in BC's first 2 games except that they've done a good job in letting their new qb's get comfortable and building some confidence in the team and the new HC. Death Valley is a big place to play but these teams traditionally play close games and to ask Swinney to cover this number is more than I am willing to do at this point. Tigers by 3..

More to come, looking at the rest of the card now d1g1t :drink:

 

[BC-Eagles]

Hope you're right in that BC keeps it at all close, good luck jimmy

 

[Proman]

Not sure that I trust BC in this spot. They have QB issues and you would think the defense would take a step back this year with all the losses from last year's team. Good luck

 

[AlwaysKeen]

jimmy,

as I clicked on your thread I seriously was hoping you would be on B.C...you are a good man and I have no doubts you will turn things around...you are a good capper...

 

[Hemlock21]

thegreek as line at 7 if your interested...

 

[jimmyshivers]

BC,

Thanks man, were both BC fans on Saturday

Proman,

To me its a percentage play, Clemson may cover but it's hard to lay what is now a TD with this dicey offense and a big game against a Top 15 team on deck. The odds of a BC cover imho are greater than a Clemson cover.

pags11,

glad were seeing this one the same man, can't wait to see your write-up for this game..

Hemlock21,

Yeah looks like I pulled the trigger a little soon, hopefully it doesn't bite me in the ass

 

[jimmyshivers]

***** Miami Hurricanes -5

Another high profile Midweek ACC game here, and I think there is some value in the Home team this week. The Hurricanes are coming of a bye week and an upset over FSU, while the Jackets will be playing their third game in a 12 day span.

The key for Miami to me is going to be their D line. Clemson actually did a pretty decent job against the GT run, especially in the 2nd half. Miami had an explosive offense against FSU but I expect the D to improve from the first week. They struggled in the pass rush, but this was a consequence in not having their top D-end in Moncur and 2 of their DB's (less LB blitzes). The D-front is quick and strong and imo matches up well with the O-line. Fortson in particular struggled vs FSU and I expect him to be very focused at clogging up the middle of the defense.

Both lines imo are stronger for Miami as their O-line did an excellent job vs FSU i giving QB Harris time to throw. We saw what a rookie qb in Parker (6 big plays for the O for 214 total yards) could do versus this secondary when he had time and this line is even better than the Tiger one. Harris did a great job at the end of last season and in week1 standing tall in the pocket and if he gets the amount of time I expect he will he should really be able to pick this secondary apart. I'm not in love with the running game but imo the playcalling is much stronger this season with the new OC.

Big revenge spot for the Canes. They were embarrassed last year on National TV in Atlanta (472 rushing yards to the tune of 8.1 ypc). The win @ Tallahassee was a big confidence booster for this team and the week off allowed them to focus on an offense that can be difficult to prepare for in a regular game week. If Miami can get up early this game could get away from GT as their offense is meant to control games and put their team in the right position to win. Miami by 14..

 

[MagicBus]

With the Clemson/BC play, I would play Clemson or no play. BC hasn't been tested at all this year. Clemson's special teams cost them that GT game. I can guarantee you those players heads will be there this Sat. Especially after the 2nd half showing last Thursday night. They have also had extra time to prepare, which really doesn't matter.

Another Question is -- Can BC score? Yeah, GT put up 30 last Thursday night, but only 1 offensive touchdown, which was an 80 yard run in the 1st qtr. Clemson's D adjusted immediately to the option GT brought and you saw what happened after that. A holding call cost Clemson the game on a 3rd down late in the 4th qtr.

Another factor - 2 yrs ago at home, the last time BC was down South, Clemson needed to win to get to the ACC Championship game, which they haven't done in quite some time, and Matt Ryan threw an opposite field bomb to put the game away in the final minutes. I just don't see BC having that caliper type of team.

Either way....GL in your plays. Enjoy the comments and thoughts!

 

[jimmyshivers]

MagicBus,

Living in SC, you should know that you cant guarantee anything about the mental state of any Clemson team. They are always a confounding team who's preparation and competitive level is always a ?. I was impressed with the rally last week but I'm not ready to say Swinney has this team in his pocket yet.

BC IMO has as many offensive question marks in this game as Clemson. Both teams are still looking for big production @ QB and neither offense has proven itself to be particularly consistent (I say this about BC cause there two games have been against Jack and Shit). Clemson did shut down the GT option nicely last week in the 2nd half (even though they allowed 306 rushing yards) but they have the same problem in that all their scores seem to come from breaking big plays.

Throw out the game 2 years ago. Sure BC is not at that caliber anymore but the Clemson team IMO isnt either. They've lost a ton on offense since then and they are using entirely new schemes since then.

Thanks for the comments, thats why we all post. Trying to get perspective and information so that we can all beat our man :toast:

 

[jimmyshivers]

a couple of quick hitters here:

*** East Carolina Pirates +7.5

Backed the pirates last week in an ATS loss to WVU, and I will be behind them this week as well. While the Pirates have struggled a bit on offense, I still like the experience they return on both sides of the ball. UNC has struggled terribly on offense and will be without a few linemen in this one, so to expect a to-date UNC offense to cover more than 7 against a well-coached in-state team is a dubious suggestion.

Many of the Pirate players are in-state players and they tend to get extremely motivated when they play the bigger schools that many of them would have attended if they had been offered. UNC has GT on deck and I can see the Heels looking ahead of this game and getting a close effort from the Pirates. Heels by 3..

* Kansas Jayhawks -22.5

Small play here as I hate laying this kind of number but this is a class differential kind of game. Duke for all their progress is still a rebuilding team and doesn't have the guns to keep up here. They have little running game and last week benched their QB to get the team playing better @ Army. On Defense the small Duke secondary is going to struggle to contain the Jayhawk wideouts and I can't see them getting a lot of pressure on Reising. It requires a certain amount of discipline to play a team with a dual threat QB like Kansas and Duke doesnt have the team speed or athleticism to handle their versatility. KU can name the score here and I think its the Hawks by 30..

** Florida State Seminoles +7.5

I'm going to have to take the athleticism of FSU here and the rare situation of getting more than a score against a non-BCS team. BYU has excellent offensive weapons and I know that FSU has looked poor so far, but the JSU game was played in heavy rain and this team was looking ahead to this week. FSU does make some stupid mistakes but their O-line is much stronger than the OU line BYU beat up in the first game and I think Ponder should have time to throw. FSU has an incredibly quick front 7 and I think they should be able to get good pressure on Hall and force some quick decisions. Like this BYU team a lot but their O-line is very young and this line is over-inflated due to the perception that these teams are heading in opposite directions. Would not be suprised at the upset here but I will take the points as I see this as a back and forth kind of game.

** Virginia Tech Hokies -4.5

This should be a good game but IMO VT is in a great spot here. QB Lee has been very strong so far but this is his first real test and its on the road (a big betting no-no in my opinion). VT is looking to get a bit of their rep back after getting dominated by Bama so I don't expect any kind of let-down here even with Miami on deck. Nebraska defensively is untested and even though VT will struggle to pass the ball I like their ground game versus this Husker front 7 a lot and they should dictate tempo here. I watched the ASU game and though Nebraska dictated the pace they looked like a bend but dont break defense. The hokies controlled most of this game last year in Lincoln and I wouldn't be suprised at more of the same here. Honestly I had this line closer to 7 and was suprised at the opening number. Pellini is building a tough program in Nebraska but I don't think the Husters are ready to come in here and win in a very difficult place to play so I will 2lay the small number and hope for the best..

Looking at one or two more but that is a great majority of the card. T:drink:

 

[GoSooners]

Jimmy...I'm still debating playing Kansas because this line is right on the edge of my comfort zone. But my feeling is they make a statement in these early season games just to send a little message to the rest of the Big 12 North that their back. I think they are looking for a little respectability after Phil Steele and a few other preseason prognosticators picked them as low as 4th in the North. I don't think that's going to happen. Too many offensive weapons on this team...BOL this week

 

[GoForIt]

Dezmon Briscoe is worth the price of admission and that is coming from a K-State fan
Puke has been decent lately covering big spreads, but I do have the Kansas moneyline in a 7 team moneyline parlay that pays -105

 

[WHITE_CHOCOLATE]

Didnt think the line would be favored towards MIAMI nearly as much as it as....think the line makers are trying to tell us something???

MIAMI -4.5????
:think2:

 

[jimmyshivers]

Go Sooners,

Yeah i agree and it's why its a small play for me. This is the kind of game where its 21-0 early in the 2nd quarter and if you have Duke your ready to tear up your ticket. KU completely outclasses a Duke team still without depth here and I personally don't see how Duke breaks DD here. Keep in mind they got 3 gift TD's last week.

Go For It,

Duke does have a tendency to cover big numbers but as GS said this is a KU team out to prove a point early in the season. 250 ypg passing and throwing the first 2 weeks. Obviously I don't predict that here but it just goes to show the versatility on display here.

White Chocolate,

I don't think the number is wrong here; Miami impressed a lot of people with their opening night display and was going to get bet here regardless of the line. Take into account the poor 2nd half from GT last thursday (another national game for the bettors to take in) and it makes sense to have Miami as a neutral field favorite here.

 

[GoForIt]

BOL Jimmy. Hopefully, KU monyline (7 team moneyline parlay at -105) will come through for me and the KU spread for you. I always make my own picks even on college football and college hoops, but the one time I followed someone it was you on that Florida State-Duke basketball game which you called a "very strong selection" without calling it GOY. Thanks for that game. It was never in doubt.

 

[jimmyshivers]

BOL Jimmy. Hopefully, KU monyline (7 team moneyline parlay at -105) will come through for me and the KU spread for you. I always make my own picks even on college football and college hoops, but the one time I followed someone it was you on that Florida State-Duke basketball game which you called a "very strong selection" without calling it GOY. Thanks for that game. It was never in doubt.

Yeah we were getting 11 and were up 9 @ the half but blew it late and lost by 3. That was a fun game and never in doubt, you are right about that. If it helps I would also call your Kansas ML bet here a "very strong selection" and I wish you luck on hitting that big boy. :toast:

 

[GoForIt]

Yeah we were getting 11 and were up 9 @ the half but blew it late and lost by 3. That was a fun game and never in doubt, you are right about that. If it helps I would also call your Kansas ML bet here a "very strong selection" and I wish you luck on hitting that big boy. :toast:

I hit the first leg and toughest legs (odds wise)last night with Twins -230
after I posted the moneyline parlay here at the RX yesterday

Here it is

Twins -230 (WIN)
Kansas -2500
Michigan -3000
Texas A&M -1600
LSU -2500
Arizona State -1400
South Carolina -1800

There are no locks though no matter how good this parlay looks right now. BOL to you.

 

[GoSooners]

Jimmy...I actually think the Thursday night ESPN home team factor could be factored in as maybe a point on the spread. It had such a good ATS run last year that I know the linesmakers are aware of it. Funny how Ga Tech was favored by 5 over Clemson and ended up winning by 3 in last week's Thursday night game. That's cutting it pretty close. I wonder if the Thursday home team factor came into play with that line? None of us know for sure. But there's a reason why trends like this usually don't hold up 2 years in a row.

 

[jimmyshivers]

Jimmy...I actually think the Thursday night ESPN home team factor could be factored in as maybe a point on the spread. It had such a good ATS run last year that I know the linesmakers are aware of it. Funny how Ga Tech was favored by 5 over Clemson and ended up winning by 3 in last week's Thursday night game. That's cutting it pretty close. I wonder if the Thursday home team factor came into play with that line? None of us know for sure. But there's a reason why trends like this usually don't hold up 2 years in a row.

Completely forgot about this but it definately warrants mentioning. I'm not much for trend betting (except for high spreads in traditionally close match-ups) but I do think people who are remember this. In fact many of the trends for this game (Miami 0-4 last 4 games in this series, GT 9-2 last 11 road openers, etc) are against the Canes here.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

dang, against you on Va. Tech...5 yards a rush to Marshall?...500 and something yards given up to Alabama...is this Tech D really that much better than Nebraska's...at any rate, good luck jimmy...