Week 3: 10 units on the Line

[ofred]

YTD: 12-11, +1.90 units

Georgia -5.5 (-110) 4 units. Never saw the early line at 3, but would have been all over it. Georgia is coming off a bye week, and next week play Troy. Everyone is talking about Gurley and they should. He is not just elusive and quick, but a load to bring down too. Instinctive. But there is more to Georgia than he. They have a whole crew of electric running backs and were tested by one of the country's best D-Lines in Clemson. They out-gained Clemson 364-15 in the 2nd half. And the game was played in a virtual sauna. I was impressed by how fresh Georgia looked in the 2nd half- unlike past Georgia teams that would wear down and lose a close game. The Georgia backs look like they have been shot out of a cannon, and are a handful to tackle. Huston Mason looks much more in his element in the no huddle than in Aaron Murray's offense, which was more pro like. He is not asked to pass much(why should he?), but is a decent passer and poised leading the offense.

South Carolina has not looked good in either run defense or pass defense, with both games at home. ECU, which lost their stud RB to graduation, ran for 6.2 YPC. ECU matched them almost yard for yard until SC scored a late FG to win by 10. And if you throw in the Texas A&M game, the SC defense has given up over 800 yards of passing. A&M also ran fairly well too, but their stats were slightly reduced by running out the clock in the 4th quarter. Dylan Thompson has been a bright spot, but he went against a pretty poor ECU defense that lost most of their starters to graduation. And he's a pocket passer, which will make it a bit easier for the Georgia blitzes. Clemson's Stoudt actually was quite mobile and I thought kept Clemson in the game 1st half with his legs and arm. Jeremy Pruitt's defense didn't look Georgia-like. They played fast but stayed in their assignments well. Even the iffy secondary got past a few missteps in the 1st half and played well in the 2nd half and in parts of the 1st half. I think Mike Davis and Thompson will get some scores, but Georgia will be too much for 60 minutes. I'm glad this game is not in the middle of the season wedged between 2 SEC games. I think Georgia will be prepared, focused and passionate in their play.

 

[ofred]

UCLA -7 (-130) 4 units. Some things cannot be fixed in a week and some can. Texas played their hearts out last Saturday trying to avenge blast year's blowout loss to BYU. They held it together for the 1st half even though their offense looked very conservative and non-dynamic. UCLA's OL has had its share of troubles, but the Texas Ol looks far worse. Swopes had time for only short passes, and their 2 great runners Gray and Brwon, never seemed to have anywhere to run. BYU's defense has lost a lot of talent the last couple of years, and they aren't THAT good. Honestly, UConn's offense looked better vs. BYU's D. Swopes looks somewhat uncomfortable in the pocket and I expect his coaches will keep it simple for the time being. Otherwise we'll see more turnovers like we did Saturday. Then there's the Texas D. They look slow in pursuit and in the 2nd half got exposed in their poor tackling. I like Charlie Strong, but he can't fix this mess overnight. I have a feeling he now going to be playing and planning long term to see better days ahead.

Now UCLA, I think, can be fixed fairly soon. Their offense and OL played very well Saturday against a daily tough Memphis defense. I'm a big fan of Hundley's unflappable demeanor no matter what the situation. He also gives UCLA a dual threat that is outstanding run and pass. Jim Mora is a long time defensive coordinator and that's his strength. UCLA struggled to defend Memphis' unorthodox offense, but I think Mora will turn it around this week against a more conventional(and stale) Texas offense. Mora has been the difference in turning around this UCLA program, and he is 2-0, but is a detail oriented, never satisfied guy that knows his team has been playing below their expectations. UCLA returns almost every difference maker this year except their outstanding LB Barr. UCLA, I think, will show marked improvement here in the 3rd week.

 

[ofred]

Georgia Southern +22 (-110) 3 units. Georgia Southern can run on anybody, including 429 yards against Florida last year. They seem to play to their competition well, almost knocking off NC State on the road in game one- out-gaining them and winning until NC State scored a TD with one minute left. I think they'll have a difficult time stopping the Tech offense too, but they will keep the ball long enough and score a number of times to keep Ga. Tech from running the score up. Ga. Southern's QB, Kevin Ellison, is also super quick and elusive and can pass better than any of the past QBs they've had(although they rarely have passed). I like very mobile QBs in these underdog roles especially when they are coached by a bright, preparation freak like Willie Fritz- who made Sam Houston St. into a FCS powerhouse. He is a good motivator that relates to his players and gets them believing they can win any game.

Ga. Tech's coach, Paul Johnson, is all about the system. He has a somewhat abrasive personality and because of his system(which is fairly successful), he can't recruit the talent he needs to compete with the big boys. If you are a stud receiver or RB, why would you come here to mostly block? Ga. Tech lost 14 players in the offseason due to transfers, ineligibility and injury. And their recruiting classes the past few years are in the 55-65 range nationally. Their defense does not have the talent to consistently stop this Ga. Southern offense. I like this game because there is a slim chance for either an upset or a nail biter finish. You won't see a lot of passing.

 

[ofred]

Russ 1945 has a thread that has some good insight on the Texas program. I didn't realize that all those great recruiting classes have only produced a scattering of playable talent. When you watch Texas, you keep thinking,"Why are they so bad at so many things? They have so many high school studs." But in reality, they are just mediocre, a team that occasionally beats a good team like Oklahoma last year, but loses far too many big games. The Mormons just looked faster and stronger last week, and as much as Texas wanted to keep the game competitive, they were just out of their league.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

I hope Georgia isn't rusty after having g a week off, lol......played Georgia as well.

Like the Georgia Southern play too.......

 

[russ1945]

Russ 1945 has a thread that has some good insight on the Texas program. I didn't realize that all those great recruiting classes have only produced a scattering of playable talent. When you watch Texas, you keep thinking,"Why are they so bad at so many things? They have so many high school studs." But in reality, they are just mediocre, a team that occasionally beats a good team like Oklahoma last year, but loses far too many big games. The Mormons just looked faster and stronger last week, and as much as Texas wanted to keep the game competitive, they were just out of their league.

I think a big part of the problem was the country club atmosphere in Austin. That comes from the top and spreads from there. Mack was a good in game coach but it was more than that. Their main problem was the lack of maintaining a stable of top notch QB's. Rating recruits is not science and many ranking services rank players by who is pursuing them and visa versa. Texas is the most lucrative athletic dept in the country but as I have already said, money can't buy you love and it sure as hell can't buy you wins. I guess they thought they could take the horns off of their helmuts and replace them with dollar signs. Mack was being paid 5.2 mil, do you think he was worth it.

 

[indiana]

Fred...........looking for help, had a rough week (couldn't pick anything)...........BOL with your action this week...........indy

 

[ofred]

I hope Georgia isn't rusty after having g a week off, lol......played Georgia as well.

Like the Georgia Southern play too.......

I guess I can't add. Risking 11 units.

I think the week off will be to their advantage. They looked rusty, coming out of camp, in that 1st half vs. Clemson, but I think this bye and a road game @ SC will present them the perfect challenge to look forward to. They can even start the game a little off, but romp in the long run. SC will be the tired team, having to play full out vs. ECU the whole 60 minutes.

 

[ofred]

I think a big part of the problem was the country club atmosphere in Austin. That comes from the top and spreads from there. Mack was a good in game coach but it was more than that. Their main problem was the lack of maintaining a stable of top notch QB's. Rating recruits is not science and many ranking services rank players by who is pursuing them and visa versa. Texas is the most lucrative athletic dept in the country but as I have already said, money can't buy you love and it sure as hell can't buy you wins. I guess they thought they could take the horns off of their helmuts and replace them with dollar signs. Mack was being paid 5.2 mil, do you think he was worth it.

Thanks for all this. I guess I just couldn't believe they could be so highly ranked recruiting-wise, and be so bad on the field. I keep thinking their next group of freshman will be the difference makers. Strong might be too much of a culture shock after Mack Brown. Or he can weed out the malcontents and low talent guys, and win 2-3 years down the road- provided they get a QB.

 

[ofred]

Fred...........looking for help, had a rough week (couldn't pick anything)...........BOL with your action this week...........indy

I've had many a week like that. Keep up your money management, and one excellent week will even things out.

 

[ofred]

Texas A&M -20.5 1H. 3 units. This makes 14 units on the line and I have more plays coming. The reason I'm not taking the game bet is that Sumlin and Rice's coach Dave Bailiff are old friends, and Sumlin might pull in the starters in the 2H if this one gets out of hand. A&M must have gotten the recruits that Texas would have liked because they are VERY talented. Not just talented, but well coached. The A&M offense, and practices in general, are efficient and extremely up-tempo. They do everything fast in practice, with many more reps so that starters and backups get more experience with plays and with ironing out the details of their offense. Oregon does the same thing. A&M's offense is all about mastering skills and techniques, and it shows on the field. Rice will be overwhelmed. The Rice defense was awful vs. the ND run game, and almost as bad in their pass defense. They are small up front facing a very good A&M offensive line. And their starting nose guard is out.

Also, I'm not in the camp that Driphus Jackson is the answer at QB for Rice. He is a dual threat, but his passing abilities and decision making is not the best. Rice also lost Charles Ross to graduation, their RB of 6.1YPC, and their only stud receiver, Jordan Taylor, to an injury this week. Last year's Rice team was pretty good, but it was a senior laden team and had some definite offensive stars that are now gone. They have been and still are a sieve against the run game, and tackling will be a problem. Rice is also breaking in a new kicker and their special teams coverage is fairly poor. A&M has no look ahead, facing SMU next week.

 

[ofred]

Wake Forest +15 (-105) One unit. Let's get the ugly over first. Wake had 94 total yards week #1 vs. ULM. But considering they have new coaches, new systems, etc, what can you expect in game one? But their true freshman QB looked pretty good last week, showing poise and accuracy. Wolford had 3 picks, but 2 of them were not his fault. Also, I have admiration for their defensive coordinator, Mike Elko, who seemed to get the most out of Bowling Green's defense when coaching there. Wake has plenty of 3 star defensive players, and know they will have to play well on that side of the ball to stay in games. Last year they did play well defensively in many of their games, especially considering the lousy field position their offense continually put them in. Wake also has 54 returning lettermen and I think a much better talent base than Utah State. The Aggies no longer have the supporting cast for Keeton, nor a defense that will dominate games. Idaho State, ranked about 100th in the FCS, almost matched Utah State yard for yard last week. Idaho State is a bottom feeder by Big Sky Conference standards. Chuckie Keeton is 11 months removed from his MCL and ACL tears and many observers think he is not fully recovered. He hasn't had that great speed, running downfield for a 40 yard gain like in the past. He also looks rusty passing, only completing 13-30, with no TDs and 1 int. vs. Idaho State. Utah State's O also looked ineffective vs. Tenn, not completing a drive until the 4th quarter. Wake's D will keep this game close, and 15 points looks doable to me.

 

[ofred]

Tonight's Baylor game is a perfect example of the square bet, the obvious bet winning. If it was so obvious why didn't I take it? Dumb no play by me. But I'll keep it in mind for the future.

 

[ofred]

USC/ BC- under 55 (-105) One unit. BC doesn't really have any real strengths going into this game, except they are at home, it will be a wet, breezy day and USC is coming off a bruising game with Stanford. It's completely up to Tyler Murphy to provide all the offense. That will make it that much easier to game plan for the USC DC Justin Wilcox, who is very good considering the offenses of the PAC 12. BC has very poor skill players and I doubt that you'll see much in the way of a passing game. Murphy will make just enough plays to get a few 1st downs, but not enough to score much. BC also runs a time sucking offense, and uses a good deal of the 40 seconds between plays. I could really talk myself into a straight bet on USC after watching how plodding the BC offense is.

USC will likely run the ball a lot too, and will have some success at it. But I just don't see USC being as explosive here in this East Coast game after last week's grinder with Stanford. The line dropped from 19 to 17 in anticipation that the Trojans will have a bit of a letdown here. BC wants to keep this game respectable, and might give a high effort to keep it close at least for a half.

 

[indiana]

Fred...........good looking card...........BOL with all your action...........indy

 

[ofred]

Arizona State TT over 42 (-110). One unit. ASU might actually have the best offense in the PAC 12, not Oregon. It has no weaknesses, and it has been playing it easy vs. their first 2 opponents. They can seem to turn it on at will. Taylor Kelly is a dual threat in the best sense in that he is an excellent decision maker while the play unfolds. DJ Foster may turn out to be better than Marion Grice at running the ball and running after catches. He is extremely elusive, fast, and can change directions as well as anyone in college football. They also have 2 very good receivers in Jaelen Strong(who requires double coverage) and Cameron Smith. Their OL is a veteran one, and can run block and pass block. ASU won't win the PAC 12 due to a very young defense, but look out for the overs when betting. Colorado's game with UMass tells a story. UMass hasn't had an offensive explosion like that in 2 years. Col. State also ran all over the Buffs. Colorado starts 9 freshman and sophomores on D, and I really think they will be so overmatched this year in PAC 12 play. The game is on FieldTurf which is very good for cutting and change of direction offensive plays. Good weather predicted.

 

[fballgenius]

o Fred, win or lose, your plays are always well thought out. Damn, I enjoy reading your write-ups.

 

[ofred]

Va. Tech -10 (-105). One unit. This one went from 9 to 10 while I was online thinking about it. Va. Tech at home after last week's dismantling of Ohio St.- what's not to like? I still think ECU is not as good as people think. Their D will struggle to stop VT today. VT's special teams could also be a difference maker. Not much time for a write up, so GL.

 

[ofred]

Virginia +4.5 (-110) One unit. My one play that follows the large line movement on Virginia. I'd like to think Bill Walters and I are on the same side(ha, ha). Virginia is 1-1, with a near win vs. UCLA, so they are feeling pretty good after last year's dreadful season.

 

[Jbarsk82001]

Gl today ofred