Week 2: Two Weekday Games to Start

[ofred]

YTD: 6-4, + 2.60 units. I don't know if your units are $50 or $100 or $10,000, but if you follow(or fade), keep your money management of foremost importance. In a good year, you can win enough to cash out a large %; in a fair year, you can keep your account funded well enough to play the same unit amounts all the way through the Super Bowl plus some: in a below average year, you can have plenty around for next year; in a poor year, you just need one good year to even it out. My biggest regrets from last week was jumping on UCLA at the last minute, tempted by -18. And betting against Todd Gurley, a true game breaker.


I actually don't like to bet against home underdogs in weekday games, or in too many weekend games either. But being that it's the beginning of the season(when teams are fresh), I think these two can overwhelm their opponents and cover very reasonable spreads.

Arizona -7(-110) 2 units. Arizona's new QB might be a huge improvement over Denker, who played well about half way into the season. His name is Anu Solomon and he looks perfect for Rich Rod's spread option. Kareen Carey and Denker are both gone, but I'm betting that this offense is even better. They have a good OL and many skill players for Solomon to hand off to and pass to. Solomon and the Wildcats started slow vs. UNLV, but then lit them up for almost 800 yards. In the 4th quarter, it was garbage time. Arizona also has Austin Hill, WR, back and he could be the top WR in the PAC 12 this year. Now Arizona's D is average by PAC 12 standards, but UTSA has a new QB that so far looks fairly pedestrian. So does their running game. UTSA upset Houston aided by 6 turnovers. Now UTSA played good defensively to get these TOs, but Houston looked flat, and UTSA had been planning for this game all summer. Now they have a short week for Arizona.

UTSA has recruited poorly the past few years, and just doesn't have the speed to outscore this Arizona offense. Or stop this Arizona offense. Arizona, for the past few years, has beaten up on the lesser non-conference teams, and I expect they'll want to that here on national TV. After all, they are not getting much respect nationally or in the PAC 12. I am also impressed by Rich Rod and his coaches getting them prepared for big games, slaughtering BC in their bowl game and Oregon during the 2013 season. No look ahead game next week for Arizona.

 

[ofred]

Pitt -4 (-110) 3 units. Pitt has had some issues as a program the last few years and there is a perception that they are a mediocre team, now without DT stud Aaron Donald and playing with a new QB. In my opinion, they are much better. Pitt has an experienced OL, plus a lot of talent at RB and WR. Defensively they'll miss Donald, but they are experienced and talented in their back 7. Honestly, I can't see any major flaws on this team. Even Paul Chryst has shown that he's capable of leading this team to better things. Mostly, I really think BC is in a major rebuilding phase. If not for Florida transfer, Tyler Murphy, this offense would be a bigger mess than the past few years. They only have experience in the OL, which isn't saying much considering how last year's QB, Rettig, was always running for his life. The defense is also loaded with freshmen. Last week they didn't put away a terrible, really terrible, UMass team until the 4th quarter. Murphy WAS the offense period. But UMass is hopeless, and Pitt's defense will make Murphy's job much harder. BC coach Addazio looks like he is benching some experienced starters to have many of his freshmen get playing time- a sign he is building for next year. With Andre Williams' 2,000 yards gone and all of their top WRs, this game could get ugly.

 

[ofred]

YTD: 6-4, + 2.60 units. I don't know if your units are $50 or $100 or $10,000, but if you follow(or fade), keep your money management of foremost importance. In a good year, you can win enough to cash out a large %; in a fair year, you can keep your account funded well enough to play the same unit amounts all the way through the Super Bowl plus some: in a below average year, you can have plenty around for next year; in a poor year, you just need one good year to even it out. My biggest regrets from last week was jumping on UCLA at the last minute, tempted by -18. And betting against Todd Gurley, a true game breaker.


I actually don't like to bet against home underdogs in weekday games, or in too many weekend games either. But being that it's the beginning of the season(when teams are fresh), I think these two can overwhelm their opponents and cover very reasonable spreads.

Arizona -7(-110) 2 units. Arizona's new QB might be a huge improvement over Denker, who played well about half way into the season. His name is Anu Solomon and he looks perfect for Rich Rod's spread option. Kareen Carey and Denker are both gone, but I'm betting that this offense is even better. They have a good OL and many skill players for Solomon to hand off to and pass to. Solomon and the Wildcats started slow vs. UNLV, but then lit them up for almost 800 yards. In the 4th quarter, it was garbage time. Arizona also has Austin Hill, WR, back and he could be the top WR in the PAC 12 this year. Now Arizona's D is average by PAC 12 standards, but UTSA has a new QB that so far looks fairly pedestrian. So does their running game. UTSA upset Houston aided by 6 turnovers. Now UTSA played good defensively to get these TOs, but Houston looked flat, and UTSA had been planning for this game all summer. Now they have a short week for Arizona.

UTSA has recruited poorly the past few years, and just doesn't have the speed to outscore this Arizona offense. Or stop this Arizona offense. Arizona, for the past few years, has beaten up on the lesser non-conference teams, and I expect they'll want to that here on national TV. After all, they are not getting much respect nationally or in the PAC 12. I am also impressed by Rich Rod and his coaches getting them prepared for big games, slaughtering BC in their bowl game and Oregon during the 2013 season. No look ahead game next week for Arizona.

This one is actually 3 units. My bad. At (-105)

 

[DC.]

good luck fred i will follow on the arizona bet

 

[ofred]

Teaser:
Texas +8
Texas/ BYU- under 52 (-110) One unit. May increase this to 2 later. Texas will go basic on offense without Ash, and Swopes is more of a runner anyways. In fact, I think we'll see a lot of time draining in this game due to the fact that both teams are going to be run first offenses. I also don't think we'll see any repeat of last year's BYU offensive explosion vs. Texas. Just the opposite. BYU scored less than 20 in 4 of their games last year, and I think they caught Texas, as usual under Mack Brown, under prepared for the season/certain games. Texas has had this one circled on the calendar due to last year's embarrassment. Charlie Strong, a long time DC, has got this Texas defense playing more physical and tackling better. They also don't have the massive injuries of last year. I think Texas hangs in there in a close game, maybe even wins it. BYU is hanging its hat on Taysom Hill, who is a very physical runner. But he has been worn down by more physical teams and is not much of a passer. He is also missing his top 2 WRs from last year and 3 of the top 4.

 

[ofred]

Miami OH +2.5(-120). One unit. This one is at +1 and still a good play. Miami has been a woeful team the past few years, but now they have a QB. Notre Dame transfer, Andrew Hendrix passed for over 300 yards vs. Marshall. Miami OH was within a TD until the 4th quarter, and matched Marshall for yardage. Now they are at home vs. FCS 29th ranked E. Kentucky. E. Ky. is coming off a .500 season, losing by 58 to Jacksonville St, 35 to E. Illinois, and basically only winning against FCS cupcakes. Miami hasn't won a game since 2012 and this is a home game vs. fairly average FCS team. From what I've read, Miami almost looked at last week's Marshall game as a victory of sorts. They hung in there against a pretty good team. They have 50 returning lettermen and must look at this as a must win game for the program and their own respect.

 

[ofred]

For Saturday, right now, I don't see anything I like better than tonight's game. Lost the Arizona game although it looked like they could offensively dominate at times. UTSA played with more emotion and their QB was able to make enough plays to sustain a few drives. All of the following are 1 or 2 units.

Arkansas St +16.5 (-105) 2 units. I liked Tennessee vs. Utah State mostly because I thought Utah State would be overmatched everywhere. They were. But the Vols are still pretty young and sometimes it's hard to keep young players focused or consistent 2 weeks in a row vs. a weaker opponent. Sloppiness is more prevalent with younger players and they get too jacked up. Arkansas St. Has more defensive talent than Utah St. and should make it a bit harder for Tenn. to score. They also have a mobile QB, Fredi Knighten, who should keep the Tenn. defense honest. Tennessee is not as good as last week's score indicated and they have Oklahoma on deck.

Army -3(-115) 2 units. This play says that Buffalo is due for a really down year. They lose much of their good defense, which faltered badly at the end of 2013. They lose their great RB, Oliver, and all of their top receivers. Buffalo hasn't played a service academy in a while and it can be difficult to prepare for. This Army team will be able to run fairly easily in this game. Buffalo has their QB back, but without his better weapons and the good D getting field position and TOs, Joe Licata isn't all that good. Buffalo has not recruited well(bottom of the MAC for many years) and I think Army at home will see this as a must win vs. someone they can handle.

 

[ofred]

Northwestern -6.5 (-105) 2 units. This play says Northwestern slept through the 1st half of their 1st game, but woke up too late to get the lead back. If that Cal game went another quarter, I think they would have won.I'm also not with the herd that says Cal is so awful. Now Northwestern has to win and I think they'll come out VERY prepared and ready to play with emotion on defense. NIU lost one of those irreplaceable players in Jordan Lynch, and even though they look to do well in the MAC, that doesn't say much. The MAC is a glorified FCS conference, and I foresee more lopsided losses in non-conference play. I also saw NIU get punked badly by Bowling Green last year, and completely flop offensively vs. Utah State- and that was with Lynch. NIU does not have the defensive talent to hang in there with Northwestern. They did pummel Presbyterian last week, which is ranked very poorly in the FCS and I think that game could work against them. Too easy, too slow an opponent, and too small on both lines. NIU also lost Stingily, their best RB last year and a real bruiser, and Jamaal Bass, probably their best defensive player.

 

[ofred]

Idaho +14(-105) One unit. Idaho is bad, really bad, but ULM is pretty awful too. ULM beat Wake Forest last week in a squeaker, but Wake is almost bare of offensive talent. ULM should not be favored by 14 over anyone. Idaho has most of their roster returning, adding some decent youth, and enough offense to keep this game interesting. Their 2 QBs had pretty good camps and the defense added many transfers and JUCOs that can only make it more improved.

FAU + 40 (-105) One unit. I have another stinker here. FAU and Idaho??? But Alabama, and Saban, seem to really lay back against the cream puffs. If you look over the past few years, Alabama has really played overly conservative vs. these teams and rarely wins by a huge margin. This game is more of a tryout for their 2 QBs, and other players. You'll see a vanilla offense and a vanilla defense. I also think Alabama is not what they used to be. I know that they reload and all that, but their secondary and defense in general is not so dominant anymore. They used to look almost NFL like- now they're just a very good college defense. FAU looked awful vs. Nebraska last week, but I don't think they're as hopeless as their game one score indicated. Look for Alabama to hold back and win big, but not by 40.

Iowa St +12 (-105) One unit. Iowa State at home after last week's embarrassing loss to ND St. But ND St. beat Kansas St. last year and they are the real deal. Kansas State lost some of they offensive and defensive playmakers, and they are not as loaded with talent as you might think. I don't think Bill Snyder pulls in the recruits anymore, and their last 2 recruiting classes were on par with Kansas. Iowa State is also one of those teams that has been dangerous at home vs. better opponents. They do lose Bundrage, their best WR, but Kansas St's Lockett has a hamstring issue and might be less than 100%. Iowa St. could win this game so I'll take the points.

 

[ofred]

Tulsa +24.5 (-105) One unit. Another dog. Tulsa is at home although I'm sure plenty of Sooner fans will travel to attend this game. Oklahoma is loaded, I know, but they might play this game very conservatively offensively. If they get the big lead, Tulsa will keep slinging it in the 2nd half with their starters in, while Oklahoma plays the 2nd and 3rd stringers. Tulsa has enough offense to at least run some clock and score a couple of times here. QB Evans looks like a new man this year, and Tulsa will compete in the AAC this year after last year's 3-9 season. This game has about 90% of the bets on Oklahoma but the line hasn't moved.

 

[ofred]

God, Tulsa looks awful. Hope you had enough sense not to follow me there.

Final 2 plays:

Michigan St. +13.5 (-105) 2 units. No matter how much I'd like to take the Ducks, I just can't see them covering this spread. They have issues- Backup LT, who might be fine. Played a horrible defense last week (SD St.) so I'm not sure just how good this passing offense is. Almost all new WRs and a secondary that has only one returnee, who is on a wobbly ankle. I'm also not sure if Helfrich is the man that will take them to the Promised Land. Chip Kelly had that certain gunslinger mentality that rubbed off on his players. Michigan St. lost some key defensive players, but is still very good on that side of the ball. They finally have a passing game, and I think this is what will give Oregon trouble. Michigan St. did beat Stanford, Ohio St. and Michigan and I don't see how they get 13.5 here. They play well with the top tier teams and I'm not sure if this Oregon team has too many ? to really pull away. Do like Mariotta a lot though.

Ole Miss -19.5 (-105) 2 units. I really think Vandy's loss last week was not an aberration. Their coach looks stunned and a bit over his head, the offense looks inept, and they lost enough on defense that Ole Miss could score easily here. Ole Miss hopefully has learned its lesson about getting up for every game knowing they have the talent to be really good in the SEC. First SEC game for them and I think they'll want to establish early that they will be among the best of their conference. Very impressed with their D in last week's Boise game.

 

[ofred]

6-7, -.70 units
YTD: 12-11, +1.90 units. Treading water. Will be checking the early lines.

 

[Jbarsk82001]

Will be looking forward to next week's plays, good luck O