Week 2: Two for Thursday

[ofred]

YTD: 0-1, -3.3 units The Beavers really disappointed their coaches and fans last week at CSU. The defense looked sluggish, but QB Jake Luton I think will be a big improvement over past two years of almost no passing offense. Coach Gary Andersen looked visibly upset after the game, looking like a man who can't escape a team that might not make the next step up. Had to feel for the guy.


4* Indiana +21
Part of this play is going against the incredible hype for Ohio State. Can they win the NC? Best defense in the country? JT and Weber, what an unstoppable duo in the backfield. Yet Ohio State had this good of a team last year, and often struggled in tougher games. Their offensive stats were greatly skewed by thumpings of the weak sisters of the Big Ten like Maryland and Rutgers (and yes, a vastly overrated Nebraska team). I'm still not convinced that Barrett is anything but a very good scrambler/ runner that often misses on medium and long passes. Throw in inexperienced WRs for the Buckeyes vs. a very tough Indiana D at home, and I like the +21. I also like that Indiana has an experienced QB and two dynamic WRs that can make big plays. The ? here is whether Indiana's OL can keep QB Richard Lagow upright enough to get the ball off. Betting that Indiana max protects at times, and scores a few times. Last year, the Hoosiers didn't seem at all intimidated. They have a history of giving Ohio State a good game, even in bad years. (note: Simmie Cobb questionable)


2* FIU +17 FIU had a miserable year last season, and ended the year losing 5 straight to good teams. But they didn't fold, and played hard in all of those games. Their defense started to play much better by mid-season. They now have Coach Butch Davis, who comes with quite a coaching pedigree and a belief that he can at least convince his veteran team that they will win. They won't win many, but he does have an senior QB, veteran skill players and a defense that returns most of the top tacklers. Scott Frost, the UCF coach, did a great job last year, considering UCF went winless the year before. But he has a mediocre QB, a running game that went nowhere last year, and a lot of new faces on the D. It could be that FIU has the better offensive firepower here, first game of the year when all teams get a "do over", and FIU's veterans will play with passion in their last season in CFB.

 

[Skeeter123]

O Fred - Good luck this season! Always enjoy your write-ups.

:toast:

 

[indiana]

Fred.....BOL with your Fri. action.........indy

 

[METFAN]

GOOD LUCK FRED..Like both

 

[bigike]

On them both Fred! Good luck!

 

[Saints2016]

Good luck tonight and the rest of the season

 

[ofred]

Ouch! What a brutal start to this season. Thought Indiana was going to possibly pull the upset at the half, and then….OSU dominates, and couldn't even get the cover. Two more for tonight, but fade if you think best.


4* Rutgers +27 Wish I had hit this last week at 30, but it still is attractive here at +27. Washington is still a strong PAC 12 team, and they have got Browning and a great running game. But their defense will be noticeably weaker this year. The secondary and the DL especially. For this game, they also lose defensive leader LB Azeem Victor and 2 other defensive starters due to suspensions/ injuries. This East Coast opener is a W for them, and they won't risk 2nd half injuries vs. lowly Rutgers. Yet Rutgers will be at home in a game that will have a good crowd(somewhat due to ranked UW being there), and wants to show they will be competitive, and avenge last year's blowout loss in Seattle. Rutgers has a veteran QB, Kyle Bolin who has shined in camp, and a possible freshman QB phenom in Johnathan Lewis, who is their future dual threat playmaker. Lewis has also played well in camp, and has the legs to make UW's defense struggle a bit. I also like this game because we're in year two of the coaching staff, there is some good young talent at Rutgers that wasn't there last year, they are healthier, they have a QB who can make plays, and a possibly overrated Husky team that has bigger fish to fry down the schedule, and will be happy with a win in almost any way.

3* Colorado/ CSU- over 69 Although CSU held the Beavers to 27 points last week, they were lucky to do so. OSU had a TD reversed by the refs(they were wrong), and a number of plays that could have been scores except OSU QB Luton missed his receivers. The Rams did stop the run fairly well, but the Beavs OL is mostly inexperienced(and of questionable ability), and that won't be the case in this game. Both teams have many playmakers in both the running and passing game. And both teams are lacking defensively. Colorado lost DC Jim Leavitt, who did an incredible job last year coaching CU into a PAC 12 defensive force. CU also lost almost every defensive stud to the NFL draft. CU QB Steve Montez was good as freshman last year thrown into the fire, but reports out of their camp says he has improved in both passing and in his leadership of the offense. The game is in Denver, a mile high, and even though these 2 teams are used to the elevation, early season could see defensive players getting gassed by the 2nd half.

 

[DHSPECIAL]

like the over play as well. GL

 

[solrosenberg]

Fred the first half of the OSU vs Indiana game your Barrett analysis looked spot on.... he looked horrid

 

[ofred]

A slight win tonight, but not much to celebrate about. Top game of the week:

8* Georgia -14 Appalachian State is known for their upsets of top teams, and nearly knocked off Tennessee last year. But App. State's lesser known blowout losses also should be noted. Miami beat them by 35 last year, and that's with the Hurricanes letting up in the 2nd half. Clemson beat them up the year before. This play also says that Georgia will surprise a lot of us this year. They have a defensive wizard in Kirby Smart, who finally has the talent to dominate. In fact, Georgia is loaded on both sides of the ball. Georgia and Appalachian State have such a speed and talent discrepancy, that even Taylor Lamb and the Mountaineers spunkiness won't be able to overcome it. Lamb has almost too much on his shoulders in their offense, and his OL will struggle to protect him in this game. Georgia's defense has 9-10 returning starters and many new talented defenders added into the mix.

Georgia's coaching staff has run App. State's upsets of the past run on a loop for the past couple of weeks on their TVs in the training facility and locker room. They are not going to overlook them. Coach Smart also has extra time to prep for the Mountaineers unorthodox offense. But what I especially like in this play is that Georgia will have a two-headed monster in Chubb and Michel at running back, and QB Eason, who looked pretty good as a freshman last year, and much improved in camp this year. Kirby Smart brings that Alabama magic to Athens this year and they have good shot at the playoffs.

 

[ofred]

2* Portland State +22.5 Some books will give you limited action on these FCS/ FBS games. Watched both Portland State and Oregon State last week, and I think this will be a tightly fought game. PSU's defense pushed BYU around quite a bit, making QB Magnum and their running game work hard for every yard. Since the Beavers have a rebuilt OL, and struggled to protect their QB last week, and provided little room to run, I think this matchup favors PSU when the Beavs have the ball. The Beavers also looked slow on defense, and their back 7 really looked confused and out of position at times. PSU has a frosh QB, who held up pretty well against BYU. He didn't have much success downfield passing, but he's got breakaway speed and is decent in the short passing game. Oregon State's strengths last year, the secondary and the OL, are both in a rebuilding stage. I do like their QB, Luton, but he is a little turnover prone. I feel for Coach Andersen as he's a sincere, hard-working coach, but the talent in Corvallis makes a 3 win season very possible.

 

[indiana]

Fred........appreciate the write ups.........BOL Sat. .........indy

 

[Saints2016]

I agre wth the Georgia angle. Line should be closer to 17-20. Great call on the Rutgers game today.

 

[ofred]

3* Temple +18.5 Notre Dame should be given some credit for last season. They managed to lose so many close games to pretty good teams. This game with Temple, I think, could go either way. Temple and Notre Dame both start new QBs, and although ND QB Brandon Wimbush might be the best of the young guys, Brian Kelly will find a way to mess things up, make him nervous, and keep him from excelling. Like Deshone Kizer, Kelly and the ND offense managed to make one of the best NFL-drafted QBs of 2017 look pedestrian. Notre Dame has talent, but hasn't recruited quite as well as in the past. And their talent, in Kelly's tenure, has underperformed. Kelly has almost all new coaches this year, like Temple and their new coach- former DC Geoff Collins.

Collins has a a decent defense, a good running game and like most teams facing Notre Dame, the motivation to get his team to play their best. Temple went 10-4 last year partly because they were able to play better than their abilities. They beat USF, Navy, UCF and lost a close one to Penn State. I know they have a new QB, and some defensive starters to replace, but their top receivers are back and they have a lot of defensive players returning who got good playing time last year. They can hang with ND if their QBs can be at least somewhat competent.


1* Ball St. +6.5 How many times have we seen these MAC teams with a good offense torment the bottom feeders of the Big 10 early in the season? Lots. Illinois ended last year with 3 blowout losses, lost to Purdue, and now start over with a new QB, and the overrated Lovie Smith for another year. This 6.5 line might be begging for Illinois money.

 

[ofred]

I agre wth the Georgia angle. Line should be closer to 17-20. Great call on the Rutgers game today.

I'm choosing Georgia as one of the surprise contenders for the NC. An underdog for that, yes, but they seem to have all the bases covered.

 

[ofred]

Fred........appreciate the write ups.........BOL Sat. .........indy

Thanks Indy. The write-ups help me think through a game.

 

[Skeeter123]

GL today fred!

:toast:

 

[ofred]

Penn State still playing Barkley and McSorley in the 3rd quarter with 35 point lead. My opinion, but Franklin will get pounded if they get injured in a sure win. Saw this with Mccaffrey at Stanford, and in many other cases. I don't get it. I'd pull every key starter and some of the key backups.

 

[Saints2016]

Hell of a call on Georgia!

 

[ofred]

After a miserable start, Rutgers and Georgia wins got me back to 4-5, -1.05 units

One more for the week:

1* Texas A&M +5 Rosen is the best QB out there today, but his OL may still be a problem. UCLA couldn't run the ball last year and I don't see anybody on their roster that is going to give them a running game this year. A&M might have a new QB, who by some accounts is a pretty accurate pro-style QB, but they do have strong running game. Both teams lose some key defenders. Not a big fan of either coach, and I'm a bit surprised that both survived another year at the helm. Part of this play is based on Rosen struggling with a mediocre OL and running game, coming back from injury, and possibly being a bit overrated.