week 2 systems, stats, info and picks

[w365]

0-1 teams vs 0-1 teams:


fade the favs of 3.5 or more pts: 17-1 ATS. plays: OAK, SF


fade the favs with 4,5,6 more wins ly: 14-3 ats. play: MIN


-8.5/-12 f are 12-0 su. However, -3.5/-9 fav are 4-22 ats.play:SF


-3 f or higher with 2+ more wins last year are 0-14 ats.play:SF


both off dog losses: -3.5/-7 f are 2-9 su, 1-10 ats: play:OAK


both off dog losses: -3.5/-9: 1-13 ats. plays:OAK, SF.


1 off fav loss, other off dog lossff dog loss is 5-12 ats.play:IND.




1-0 vs 1-0 teams


favs with 2+ less wins last year: 6-0 su ats. play: NYJ


same # of wins last year, f -1.5/-3.5 2-0 su, ats: play: CAR


5/9.5 dogs: 16-4 ATS, less wins last year: 11-2 ats, playHI


both 1-0 teams of dog win: fave is 2-0 su/ats: play:CAR


both of fave win, fave is 16-3 su, 15-4 ats plays: NYJ,DAL




1-0 vs 0-1 teams:


8+ dogs are 0-7 su, 0-5 ats last 5: play: TB


5.5/7.5 dogs are 7-2 ats. play:BUF


3.5/5 dogs are 3-13 su, 4-12 ats. play:HOU


+3 dogs: 6-2-1 ats playEN


2.5 or less dogs: 3-8 ATS, plays: CIN,WAS


-5/-6 favs: 10-0 su, ats, playIT


less wins last year, pk/+5: 7-13 ats.play: WAS,SD,HOU


7 more wins last year: 0-5 ats.plays: MIA, DET


Off fave win & dog loss, 3+ favs: 31-5 su (nyg, ari, pit)


off fave win & dog loss, line +5/-2.5: 5-17 ats. play: WAS



update:

the most improved teams from last year, as mentioned in my week 1 thread had the following results:

cleveland(i said they would be a good fade): LOST BIG

tb (also a good fade) LOST THE COVER

gb(i said they were a good value b/c of the favre departure) WON

 

[w365]

Detroit allowed over 300 yds rushing last week. Teams with a line lower than +8.5, that allow >300 rushing yards and lose are 13-0 ats the following week. play: DET


GB: teams after a home favorite win with 12+ penalties are 2-17 ats the following week if favored by 1.5-6.5 pts. playET


Carolina: line >-5.5 and <2.5 after a win in wich they had 2 + field goals more than touchdowns. : 7-34 ats play:KC


Ten. in a bad spot. vs non div. after a div. dog win, before another divisional game: the league is 56-87 ats in this spot. Baltimore is in this spot as well. play: HOU,CIN


Ten. dog of home dog win,<17 pass.completions last week. the league is 60-104 ats in this spot. play:CIN.


fave after a road fave win in which they had 33+rushes: 14-0 ats. play:ARI


weeks 2,3, both teams after a loss, take the team with more rushing yards in previous game if the line is >-3 and <7 on the road: 28-2 ats. play: OAK


after win in which the team scored 17+ pts with no red zone touchdowns: 37-63 ats play: WAS, HOU


road fave (ind) vs non conf before a divisional game ifthe opponent played a div.game last week: 27-43 ats play:MIN

 

[Jetplane]

I like BUF and CAR this week. Leaning on DET but with such a big f*ckup I don't know if i can trust them with 3 points. Cincy definitely not a play for me... they are this years dolphins.

 

[White_Tiger]

I like BUF and CAR this week. Leaning on DET but with such a big f*ckup I don't know if i can trust them with 3 points. Cincy definitely not a play for me... they are this years dolphins.

Yeah I will stay away from them this year.

 

[w365]

The teams that start the season on the road and score 35+pts in their first game are rarely underdogs in week 2. Actually this is only the second time that it happens in last 15 years. Anyways, as long as they are favorites of a field goal or less, or underdogs, in week 2, they are 0-7-1 ATS. And as long as they are favorites of 4 pts or less, or underdogs, the over in week 2 is 9-1. Denver started their season on the road this year and scored over 34 pts.

The teams that score 4-10 pts on the road in week 1 and have a total higher than 36 in week 2, go under 28-9. And if their line is lower than 5, they are 19-8 ATS (Cin, Jax, Was and Sea).

The teams that score 38+pts at home in week 1 are 18-6 to the under in week 2, and they are 3-7 ATS as road favorites (Phi is a road dog and Pitts is a road fave)

in week 2 the dogs generally do well as long as they are not labelled with extreme lines, totals. if their total is close to the league avrage (anywhere from 39 to 45), their line also close to the average (from 3 to 7) in both week 1 and week 2, and their previous game ended in not more than a 16 pts win or loss (again avoiding extreme scores), they are 33-8 ats. (MIA, DET).

And if they allowed less than 26pts in week 1, this trend goes to 30-5 ATS. (Mia)

What is even more astonishing is that these dogs win more ofthen on the road. They are 16-7 su and 20-3 ats on the road and 10-2 ats and 6-6 su at home. Miami is on the road this week.


P.S. Am I the only one here who has enormous problems with this site!?

 

[w365]

Yeah I will stay away from them this year.

remember guys, no team is as bad as it looked the previous week.

miami lost 15 games last year but they stil had a better ats record than 6 other nfl teams.

 

[w365]

I like BUF and CAR this week. Leaning on DET but with such a big f*ckup I don't know if i can trust them with 3 points. Cincy definitely not a play for me... they are this years dolphins.

keep in mind that seattle played a very early game for a west coast team + injuries + tricky buffalo plays that you don't see every week. buffalo will be ok at home but just like last season, they could be a different story on the road, especially against elite teams.

 

[RDTrains]

w365

The teams that start the season on the road and score 35+pts in their first game are rarely underdogs in week 2. Actually this is only the second time that it happens in last 15 years. Anyways, as long as they are favorites of a field goal or less, or underdogs, in week 2, they are 0-7-1 ATS. And as long as they are favorites of 4 pts or less, or underdogs, the over in week 2 is 9-1. Denver started their season on the road this year and scored over 34 pts.

There also used to be a system of betting against any team the next week after scoring 30 or more on MNF. Maybe you have that in your database?

 

[cruisin]

So are your plays in your first post or are they yet to be determined? Wasn't sure if you were pointing out the plays from the systems or if they are your actual plays or both.

Thanks.

 

[sdf]

my head spins with all these systems. thanks

 

[ivan722]

W365 if I recall, you mentioned prior to week one that you post your NFL selections on Saturdays. If this is correct, can you tell me normally what time you post them in the forum and if they are posted in a separate thread?
:howdy:

 

[w365]

official plays:

washington -1

detroit +3

chicago +3

minnesota +1

 

[krh7]

official plays:

washington -1

detroit +3

chicago +3

minnesota +1

no miami, huh? thought they would be a pick with that great system % and the line move in their favor already...

 

[torontobound]

how did you do in week 1

with officail plays

thanks for the syatems

 

[ivan722]

Thanks for the picks W365 and I'll remember to look in this same thread of your's each week on Saturday for your NFL selections.

 

[Oak3]

Always an interesting read .

Thanks 365