Week 2 Over/Under system

[Murrdogg]

This is a post to show you what I got using Ace-Ace/Samy/Jackal over/under system for week 2 of the nfl. You should keep in mind that I used week one's YPG average to get these numbers and it is still early, so do what you want with these numbers and remember these are not official plays for Ace-Ace/Samy/Jackal system. Jackal told me that this system started out for the nfl only but the results were not that great so they moved to college football, which is doing much better. A number of 17 or more is usually a good play, a + means the over is favored and a - means the under is favored.

Good Luck

 

[Bdub24]

Quick question....

After week 2, will you replace the stats with week 2's stats, or will it be the average of week 1 and 2?

 

[Murrdogg]

it's always the average, which is best, so we really need more games for this system to work best

 

[sammy29926]

Hi Murrdogg,
I can not open the file withmy excel program..
Sammy

 

[Murrdogg]

i used excel 2007 let me try to save it as 2003 file and repost it

 

[Murrdogg]

here's the excel 97-2003 version

 

[xlarge]

Hi Murrdogg,
I can not open the file withmy excel program..
Sammy

You can go to microsoft and download the file format converter then you will be able to open it with old excell

 

[indiana]

M.D...........

thanks ... that helped..g/l this week

indy

 

[sparticus]

i am a pc dummy please explain step/step how to open the files,thanks in advance

 

[estonecillo]

question??

In the excel file..
What do both "variable" values means...?
i mean.. the 319 and the 7.5

 

[Murrdogg]

the 7.5 variable will never change week to week, the other variable is the entire 120 college football teams yards per game average, take all the ypg average and add them together then divide that number by the 120 college football teams, to learn more see Ace-Ace/Samy/Jackal over/under system that is in the college football threads

 

[sammy29926]

Thank you
Sammy

 

[whateva]

the formula is different for nfl games, plays are not valued by 17+ or more, i believe it is on a difference of 6 points. Go back into last years thread and read up one it. You are not following the Ace-Ace/Samy/Jackal over/under system for NFL correctly which is fine if you tell people you are doing your own thing but very confusing if you try to pass this off as their system when it isn't

 

[Murrdogg]

first of all I don't recommend playing any of theses numbers right now anyways, since we only have week one's ypg average. Secondly i am doing the formula the right way, regardless if it's college or nfl. a higher number is a safer bet anyways. I am not telling anyone to bet on any particular game here just providing data, o by the way Jackal is the one who authorized me to post this, so stick that in your pipe and smoke it

 

[Mulan]

dude you don't gotta be like that, he was just trying to help and I think what he's saying is correct. As the season progresses and the system "corrects" itself you aren't going to be seeing games with value of +- 17. The numbers are going to be getting a lot closer to the actual lines.

Right now there are teams with 400+ yards playing teams with under 200 so the system is gonna spit out a huge number. For example, I got 77.8 on the NE/NYJ game today and it's only at 22 points late in the 3rd. that was a value of 30+ and look how far under it is.

Just wanted to explain it a little better to the people who might be tailing/interested.

I think whateva was only clarifying because the first post implied that this was the original system used by them when it isn't.

I'm not attacking you so don't get all wild. Even though you may not be betting these plays there are always people who are gonna jump blindly on the bandwagon and tail so i'm just helping to clarify.

K thx bye!

 

[Murrdogg]

i feel you, I read that when I woke up this morning and kind of blew up, shouldn't have. I thought I wrote in the original post that these were not official plays. Sorry for being a dick earlier, i'm not like that

 

[Mulan]

no worries, you did write they weren't official plays but you know there are always gonna be people who don't listen so i just wanted to inform those people of how the system used to work. You were right when you said higher number is a better bet but we wont be seeing high numbers in a few weeks.

So far today the system is 4-5

 

[Murrdogg]

right now I don't look at these numbers and be like o there is a 35 point difference, that's a for sure lock, I use these numbers to help me make a better decision, there's a lot that goes into making picks for me. I might get more excited about these numbers later on in the season. Next week in college football should be very exciting. Good luck everyone

 

[disboitee]

you guys working on nfl and Ncaaf football spreadsheet everyweek?

 

[Murrdogg]

I have been asked not to by the developer of the system, he has his reasons and I don't want to list them, they are reasonable. If you want the ncaaf numbers go to ace-ace/jackal/samy thread in the college football forum or you can do the numbers on your own, sorry