Week #2 (Lost my new identity, back to the old)

[thecruncher]

Remember, this is the first year I've tried to make lines before week #4...

Home______Away______My Line__Actual_____Value

Chiefs____Raiders_____3 _____3.5_____0
Bengals___Titans_____-3.3_____1_______11.5% Titans
Vikings___Colts______-2.5____-1_______3.4% Colts
Redskins__Saints_____-0.6_____0_______1.4% Saints
Lions_____Packers____-10.3___-3______15.9% Packers
Panthers__Bears_______3.1_____3_______0.4% Panthers
Rams______Giants_____-11.9___-8_______9.3% Giants
Jaguars___Bills_______2.4_____5.5_____8.4% Bills
Bucs______Falcons_____1.1_____7______15.6% Falcons
Seahawks__49ers_______3_______6.5_____9.3% 49ers
Cards_____Dolphins____6_______5.2_____2.2% Dolphins
Jets______Patriots___-0.5_____1.5_____5.4% Patriots
Texans____Ravens______2.7_____4.5_____4.8% Ravens
Broncos___Chargers___-1______-0.4_____1.3% Broncos
Browns____Steelers___-6______-3.5_____5.7% Browns
Cowboys___Eagles______2.7_____7_______9.2% Eagles

Home______Away______My OU___Actual_____Value
Chiefs____Raiders_____39.6____36_______9.2% Over
Bengals___Titans______38.5____37_______3.8% Over
Vikings___Colts_______41.7____43.5_____4.4% Under
Redskins__Saints______40.6____42_______3.4% Under
Lions_____Packers_____46.4____46_______0.9% Over
Panthers__Bears_______40.4____37_______8.4% Over
Rams______Giants______38.5____42_______9.0% Under
Jaguars___Bills_______38.4____37_______3.7% Under
Bucs______Falcons_____38.4____37.5_____2.2% Under
Seahawks__49ers_______32.1____38______18.4% Under
Cards_____Dolphins____41.3____38.5_____6.8% Over
Jets______Patriots____37.3____37_______0.8% Over
Texans____Ravens______38.3____37.5_____2.2% Over
Broncos___Chargers____46.2____46_______0.4% Over
Browns____Steelers____42______44.5_____5.9% Under
Cowboys___Eagles______43.7____46.5_____6.5% Under


I've been lost in the system for the past week, and have only just received a new password for my old user name, so I'm just the regular old "thecruncher" again.

All my plays for last week were posted across the street. Week #1 was -1.4 Units for me, as setting lines for the first week kind of kicked my ass! I minimized the damage though by doing well on totals.

 

[thecruncher]

Raiders @ Chiefs
The Raiders ran the ball pretty well last week, but they did it while playing from behind the entire
game (passing situations) and versus the Broncos, one of last year's worst run defenses, so it's too
soon to tell just how potent this running game will be in a close game, which this one figures to be.
Still, the one-two punch of Fargas and McFadden looks promising. What didn't look promising was
the passing game which featured many poorly thrown balls and the occasional drop.
The Chiefs' defense was not impressive at NE last week. They allowed the Pats' to gain almost 5
yards per carry and for Matt Cassel to have a higher QB rating than the knocked-out Brady.
Offensively, they were unsurprisingly subpar versus a good Pats' defense. Damon Huard came in
to relieve the injured Brody Croyle (out a month+) and put up moderately better numbers, almost
leading them to a game-tying score at the end of the game.
The Chiefs are a young team, the Raiders a young (mentally) team led by a 33-year old coach
who knows the owner want him to quit. Everyone in the booth last Monday night was about ready
to cry for Lane Kiffin when the game got ugly, it was hard not to feel sorry for him, lol.
It'll be interesting to see how DeAngelo Hall fares versus D. Bowe after getting torched by rookie
Royal last week. Bowe and Gonzales have the size and ability to get downfield and win a lot of jump
balls versus a smallish Raiders secondary. About the only thing Raider-esque Hall did last Monday
was incur a couple of stupid personal fouls. If the Raiders blitz even one time on 3rd down this
week it'll be one more time than they did last week, which was pretty stupid versus a QB in Cutler
who can throw with accuracy to almost anywhere on the field.

Final Score Prediction: Raiders 17 -- Chiefs 21

Titans @ Bengals
VY was MIA from Sunday on the field through Monday night when coach Fischer thought the poor
kid to be suicidal. Now comes the announcement that VY won't regain his status as starter until
he shows progress on the field of green and the field of the mind. I don't know, but it seems like
maybe things got blown out of proportion by a coach who'd rather start Kerry Collins. Now there's
a coach ready to take it to the next level to help his team win. Speaking of being on suicide
watch after a dismal performance, I'm surprised anyone showed up to the Bengals' first practice
after last week's drubbing by the Ravens. An extra page of obituaries in the back of the
Cincinnati Enquirer would not have been surprising on Monday. They just wouldn't have been sure
whether to print "Chad Johnson" or "Chad Ocho Cinco." The Bengals were on their way to being
down 24-3 in the second half last week before returning a turnover some 70+ yards to pull within
a touchdown, a margin they couldn't, of course, make up unless they were the benefactors of
another defensive score.
I don't know if the Titans' coach espouses as many on the field dirty tricks as off, but the Titans ended
the season for about half of the Jaguars' offensive line on opening day. The resulting sieve was too
much for the normally steady Garrard to overcome as he was sacked 7 times and through 2 INTs.
I guess we can just count on the Titans upsetting the Jaguars whenever they play the first game of
the season together.
The Bengals whipped the playoff bound Titans in their last meeting in Cincinnati last year,
in no small part to VY's red zone blunders. So motivation won't be a problem for the visiting
Titans (though it is a road sandwich game for them, which is always dangerous).
As for the Cancerous Bengals, it's hard to say how mentally ready they'll be for this non-divisional
game as they face the defending Super Bowl champs next week. I'll take a sandwich over cancer
any time.

Final Score Prediction: Titans 21 -- Bengals 17

Colts @ Vikings
First impressions are that the Colts will pass all day and the Vikings will run all game. Advantage
Colts if the Vikings are forced to the passing game in the 4th quarter. Manning won't have to worry
about the Williams coming up the gut to get him on shotgun plays. They could come free and he'd
still have enough time to get the ball out of his hands. Jared Allen didn't register a tackle, let alone
a sack versus the Packers, which doesn't bode well for a Vikings' pass defense that needs all the
help up front it can get. Dallas Clark didn't practice again on Thursday, and he might be the
one receiver (at TE) that the Colts can't replace, because it's total scrubville on the depth charts
behind him. Addai got dinged up, but looks to be ready for the next game. Not having Jeff Saturday
at center might not hurt the Colts this week as much as last unless they foolishly decide to run it
up the middle more than 4 or so times this game. A blocking whiff by the replacement may just
set up better the short drop off passes over the middle to Addai that Manning likes to throw.

Impromptu poll: Which of these 2 players will get knocked the eff out the first time they collide at full
speed? #1 AD-AP #2 Bob Sanders

Final Score Prediction: Colts 24 -- Vikings 20
My gut tells me there will be a little more scoring in this game than the 41.5 my spreadsheet predicts.

Saints @ Redskins
The Redskins went from playoff contender to pretender a mere one game into the NFL season. They
looked that bad. The defense stepped it up in the second half, but the 9 point deficit was not
touched, as the game went scoreless for quarters 3 & 4 (always nice for the 2nd half Under bet).
While the Redskins were able to clamp down versus a run-first Giants' team, they could be
scrambling all day versus the Saints' potent pass attack (which will be without top WR Colston).
Drew Brees does not take sacks, so the stretched and hobbling Redskin secondary will need to
come up with a pick or two to pull off the home opener. Reggie Bush looked good "in space" last
week, while Deuce McCallister is still being nursed back to full health. The "new and improved"
Saints' defense wasn't, as it turns out, as they allowed the Bucs to run all over them. They'll be
drinking Portis all day, even if they happen to have healthy lead, as offensive "genius" Zorn seems to
find nothing wrong with running the ball when down by 2 scores deep into the 4th quarter. Maybe
the Redskins' will have a no-huddle offense to go to before the season ends, just maybe.
The Saints' offensively performed pretty well last week versus THE Tampa 2, one of their toughest
match ups, so I don't expect them to have any problems putting up points in this game. The
Redskins' should be able to score some as well as Campbell will find some favorable passing downs
and situations as the Saints may cheat some defensively versus the run. This is another game
that I expect to be slightly higher scoring than my early lines indicate.

Final Score Prediction: Saints 23 -- Redskins 21

Packers @ Lions
The only question here is whether the Lions will find enough defense at home to stop the
ultra-square Packers -3 bets from cashing (mine included). I say, "No." The Lions won't be able to
cheat versus the run or pass defensively, so they're going to be stuck in the middle with their
thumb up their ass like last week at Atlanta. I called "bullshit" on the Lions' new "running game"
before the game last week, which is what it turned out to be. They had a poor yards per carry
average despite being in passing situations for most of the game. They picked up 4 1st downs
running while surrendering 17 to the Falcons, who found themselves in the rare position of not
having to take to the skies in search of a victory. Rookies Ryan and Flacco couldn't have had it
any better in their respective debuts, playing with crushing running games on their side. Kitna
reacquainted himself with his keister while gamely trying to lead his team back. He'll have Kampman
on his keister this game, or maybe Poppinga poppin' his ass -- okay, I'll stop now. The Packers will
have too many big offensive plays for the Lions to keep pace.

Final Score Prediction: Packers 31 -- Lions 20

 

[thecruncher]

Home Road Mine Actual Covers Value
KC OAK 3.5 3.5 KC 0.0%
CIN TEN -3.1 1 TEN 11.2%
MIN IND -2.9 -1 IND 4.4%
WAS NO 0.1 0 WAS 0.3%
DET GB -7.9 -3 GB 10.7%
CAR CHI 3.4 3 CAR 1.1%
STL NYG -13.1 -8 NYG 12.1%
JAC BUF 1.4 5 BUF 9.7%
TB ATL 2.6 7 ATL 11.8%
SEA SF 2.2 6.5 SF 11.3%
ARI MIA 6.2 6.5 MIA 0.9%
NYJ NE -1.5 1.5 NE 8.2%
HOU BAL 1.7 4.5 BAL 7.4%
DEN SD 0.4 1 SD 1.3%
CLE PIT -4.4 -6 CLE 3.5%
DAL PHI 2.7 6.5 PHI 8.1%

Home Road Mine Actual Covers Value
KC OAK 39.6 36 Over 9.2%
CIN TEN 39.1 37 Over 5.3%
MIN IND 42.7 43.5 Under 1.8%
WAS NO 44.8 42 Over 6.3%
DET GB 46.3 46 Over 0.6%
CAR CHI 40.6 37 Over 8.8%
STL NYG 38.8 42 Under 8.1%
JAC BUF 37.9 37 Over 2.3%
TB ATL 38.1 37.5 Over 1.5%
SEA SF 33.7 38 Under 12.9%
ARI MIA 40.3 39.5 Over 2.0%
NYJ NE 36.2 37 Under 2.2%
HOU BAL 38.3 37.5 Over 2.1%
DEN SD 46.7 46 Over 1.4%
CLE PIT 42.2 44.5 Under 5.4%
DAL PHI 43.7 46.5 Under 6.5%

Final Lines for Week #2

 

[WormyPix]

What is going on with the RX?

Anyway, sorry about last wk. I may've swayed you a bit to play DET. Smart to go against them this wk.

Agree with all your pix, but am only playing KC, and GB. Is the GB play square? The line is only 3. Anyway, I say Sanders knocks out AP. But Sanders will get hurt on the play!

BOL Crunch! :toast:

 

[MonsterZero]

Good luck Cruncher

Not sure I understand, are you playing KC -3.5 since you think they'll win by 4? Since you only listed these games with writeups (Colts, Chiefs, Packers, Saints) are we to assume these are plays even if they only beat "the line" by 1 point?

Sorry for the questions LOL, just not familiar with your work.

Good luck this weekend.

 

[MonsterZero]

And where is "across the street" ? LOL

 

[thecruncher]

Hey Monster, thanks for stopping by. No, none of the final score predictions and write-ups are recommended plays in and of themselves. I was just starting at the top of the schedule and working my way down, lol. To have an idea for plays (which I've posted only across the street this week at eog.com because of the database problems here), look for any of the line values higher than 7% Exceptions this week are on some of the totals. I wouldn't recommend the NYG/ST.L Under or the CAR/CHI Over.

 

[MonsterZero]

Thank you for replying Cruncher. I'll be rooting for you to do well since you share this info. This is a great place for just such a thing. Good luck

 

[thecruncher]

Play Column2 Column3 Risk Reward Type
Eagles/Cowboys Under 47 F -1.1 1 OU
Bears/Panthers Under 37.5 F -1.1 1 OU
49ers +8.5 F -1.1 1 S
Eagles +7 F -1.1 1 OU
Titans +1 F -1.1 1 S
Bills +6 F -1.1 1 S
Ravens +4.5 F 0 0 S
Pats +2.5 F -1.1 1 S
Packers -3 F -1.1 1 S
Broncos ML F -1 1.05 S
Steelers -6 F -1.1 1 S
Falcons +9 F -1.1526 1 S
Seahawks/49ers Under 38 F -1.1 1 OU
Giants -8 F -1.1 1 S
Buffalo ML F -0.5 0.925 S
Atlanta ML F -0.5 1.25 S
SF ML F -0.5 1.175 S
Philly ML F -0.5 1.325 S
Saints/Redskins Over 42 F -1.0506 1 OU
Giants -2.5/Bucs -1.5 Teaser F -1.1 1 T
Bengals/Titans Over 37 F -1.1 1 OU
Jaguars/Bills Over 37 F -1.0506 1 OU
Chiefs/Raiders Over 36 F -1 1.029 OU
Raiders ML F -0.5 0.8134 S
Saints' TT Over 21 F -5.25 5 P
Redskins' TT Over 21 F -0.5 5 P
Seahawks' TT Under 21.5 F -5.25 5 P
Chargers' TT Over 22.5 F -5.5 5 P
Broncos' TT Over 23.5 F -5.5 5 P
Steelers' TT Under 24.5 F -5.25 5 P
Giants/Rams Under 43.5 F -1.1 1 OU