Week 2: Large Card and I Can't Seem to Drop Any

[ofred]

YTD: 6-3, + 5.50 units.

Really like all these plays. Could use a good day after today's college bloodbath.

Tenn. -3(-120) 4 units. Cowboys defense is one of the worst and now on the road vs. a team that might fold later, but is playing with confidence now. Romo had all the yards last week, but his turnovers negate anything he accomplishes score-wise. The NFC East, except the Eagles, has possibly 3 bottom five teams. Too early to tell, but I don't see their offense bailing them out this year.

Seattle -5 (-110) 4 units. Going against the tide here that says Seattle can't perform well on the road. I think their offense is much better, Wilson is underrated, and their D will be out to pressure Rivers into a few turnovers. Seahawaks press coverage will force him to hold the ball too long. Seattle might be just so in the groove now… at least I'm betting they will for the meantime. SD missing key OL Hardwick. Their defense gives up over 400 yards to Arizona- they're lucky they didn't lose by more. SD coming off a short week while Seattle had about 10 days between games.

Tampa -5.5 (-105) 4 units. The Rams are not going to succeed with Shaun Hill against a decent defense. He looked old, slow and rusty last week. Although he hasn't practiced this week- so the backup Austin Davis might start? Chris long out too. Rams are depressed. The Bucs got beat by a very hot Derek Anderson last week, but I think they will play with an increased intensity not to go 0-2 at home to start the season.

Philadelphia +3 (-110) 4 units. It's all on Andrew Luck, and he's pretty good. Last week though he got most of his stats in garbage time. Colts have no running game. The Eagles started slow last week, but their offense looks to be much better than expected. I really do like Chip Kelly as a game planner and a motivational coach. His practices are finally being accepted by the Eagles, and I think it'll show in games in that their up tempo offense can outlast a poor defense like the Colts. The Colts seem to pick their poison each week- no stopping the pass OR no stopping the run.

 

[ofred]

Jacksonville +6 (-105) 2 units. The Redskins are on my list of bet against teams early. The Jags played well last week for about 2 1/2 quarters, but fell apart defending the Eagles offense. Still, I don't know the Redskins should give up 6 to anyone. The Skins OL never gives RG 3 enough time to throw anything except 3 yard passes. The Redskins just play sloppy with turnovers and penalties, and that is just how their preseason looked when the starters were in. Lucky for them Dallas and the Giants are probably worse. I also think Jacksonville's defense is underrated.

Arizona -1.5 (-105) 2 units. The Giants can't fix it- their OL is just so bad right now and Eli is only the good Eli when he has a solid OL. The Giants are in for a worse season than last one unless they figure out how to block. They have no real TE, and the receivers are okay, but have no time to get open. Arizona has their own issues, but I do think their secondary will make it that much harder for Manning to find ope receivers. Palmer can be frustrating, but at least his OL blocks a bit- and -1.5 is not much to cover. Take the away favorite here.

Detroit +2.5. 2 units. The Lions are benefitting from a dreadful Giants offense to look good. But the Lions do look more physical and I think their offense could be very good this year- finally. The Panthers pass defense can be had. Ron Rivera, Cam Newton back…..I think they're better off with Anderson right now. This small line for the Lions makes me want to take the risk.

 

[bwhitey14]

i would drop Detroit and Arizona and Seattle imo. 2 of those 3 will NOT cover. just my opinion though. good luck

 

[ofred]

Ny Jets +7.5 (-110) One unit. I was wrong, Geno Smith does look like a pretty good QB. The Packers played a tough opener with Seattle, but they have some flaws that might keep them from rising to the top. Aaron Rodgers will take care of his body better, but the Pack will lose that very important part of their offense- him running downfield. I like the edge the Jets' D has over the Packer D, which might not stop the run all that well.

Minnesota +6 (-110) One unit. No Adrian Peterson. But the Vikings will play that much harder to make up for him. The Patriots are on the downhill slide to eventual mediocrity. We all saw it last year, but this year it'll get a little worse. Minnesota has got to be excited about a home game vs. the mighty Tom Brady. The Vikes can win this game or just cover.

 

[workweek]

always enjoy the write ups fred! bol this week

 

[rolltide]

I was wrong, Geno Smith does look like a pretty good QB.

he had a 32.3 QB rating last week...even worse than his league starter worst 35.9 last year :think2:

 

[EzMoney012]

Best of luck on your plays

 

[bwhitey14]

9 plays you action junkie! I have 7 myself so I won't judge. gl this week

 

[atlantic10]

New England sliding to mediocrity..? Didnt we see them in the AFC final last year?

 

[ofred]

he had a 32.3 QB rating last week...even worse than his league starter worst 35.9 last year :think2:

I'm basing it on a strong finish last year, a pretty good preseason and that he seems to have matured. Last week his running game was so good he wasn't as needed. But he still managed to make a few stupid mistakes. Dropped TD pass wasn't his fault. He's a mixed bag, but I like his game.

 

[ofred]

New England sliding to mediocrity..? Didnt we see them in the AFC final last year?

They're in the AFC so that makes their schedule a bit easier. NE just has too many weaknesses, I think, to have the passing game mask them. The Mankins trade shows there is something wrong in the front office- that and their mediocre drafts. I predict about 8-8 this year.

 

[ofred]

Seattle -5 (-105) Making this a 5 unit play. Going on the angle that they ARE what you saw in the Super Bowl and last week, and crushing the Saints twice. No real weaknesses except depth on the DL. Harvin adds another dimension to the O, Wilson will be allowed to create more on his feet, and this week Earl Thomas will have a much better game(and hopefully either not field punts or take the fair catch). Seattle still feels neglected by the national media and I'm going to ride them early and until I see them get some injuries or lose their domination.

 

[XSPower]

Thanks and good luck today.....