Week 2: Hitting One Total Early

[ofred]

But this won't be my largest play. This, like other lines, could move against my side by Friday. Gotta get off my ass and get going….. Last week: 8-1, +13.9 units

3* Wake Forest/ Duke- under 44.5 I know this seems too obvious based on Wake's 7-3 win over Tulane last week. Yet there is some likelihood that Wake might be what we saw last week, and all of last year. Offensively, they play the game close to the vest, vanilla, slow-paced and with a game plan that only Woody Hayes would love. They lack skill players(again), an offensive line that gets hardly any momentum(their 2 point stance doesn't help), and basically seem to play the game so that their very good D and special teams will save the day. Wofford is actually a decent QB, but has been saddled with this mess along with splitting time with their other QB, Kendall Hinton. HC Dave Clawson does, though, get his defense ready to play. They swarm to the ball well, and can shut down the run in most cases.

Duke is playing RS freshman Daniel Jones. He was penciled in to be the 3rd or 4th stringer back in the spring, and is a 2* recruit. He looked great as did the whole Duke team vs. NC Central, a mediocre FCS team. NCC comes from the MEAC, a conference ranked near the bottom among FCS conferences. Duke loses their top WR and RB to graduation even though they didn't run the ball all that well anyways. I think both offenses play to 2 defenses that will be at a higher playing speed than the week before. I think timing will suffer. I just don't see the playmakers in this game to get to 44.5.

 

[United]

Thanks for the play and info o fred

 

[Greenbacks]

GL fred!

 

[Lvtexholdm]

BOL and continued success!

 

[indiana]

Fred...........nicely done last week...........continued success with all your action this week...........indy

 

[thewiscokid]

Great start to the season. Thanks for sharing your insights.

 

[Vituperate]

o fred to the rescue!@)

 

[MackDonald]

They don't call him "O-Fred" for nothing.......

 

[G.MONEY]

One of my picks as well...Best of Luck to both of us

 

[TrickyGator]

GL fred! great start last week!

 

[ofred]

Thank you to all the above posters. Whatever games you play, GL.

4* Washington State +10.5 The Cougs did this last year, losing to a FCS team to start the year. But you might have forgotten that they ended the year winning 9 out of their last 12. Most of that team is back this year, especially the prolific offense. Those wins were in the PAC 12 and against Miami in a bowl game, not the Mt. West. I'm not sure if Wazzu gets too focused on the game ahead when playing these FCS teams, whether these FCS teams have also great offenses and are going all out while the Cougs hold back some of their game plans for the FBS team ahead, or what it is….but I doubt that the Cougs let last week's game ruin their season, or that they won't play better this week vs. Boise. Personally, I think Wash. St. can win this game. And personally, Luke Falk is a better QB than Rypien. Maybe much better. Falk and almost all of his skill players return, and they needed last week's game to get their timing down. Rypien is very good too, but he's turnover prone, and has accomplished much of his stats vs. weaker competition. PAC 12 defenses are average, but they are far better than the Mt. West Ds. And that goes to my next point...

I think much of this spread is based on the mystique of Boise being a giant killer who can outfox their opponents. They have some impressive wins vs. non-conference opponents the past many years, and they hardly ever lose at home. I think that's in transformation now. Bryan Harsin is a decent coach, but he's no Chris Petersen. And Boise has lost 4 non-conference games over the last 3 years(not to ULL, Idaho St, or UT Martin of course). They also lost 2 home games last year to New Mexico and Air Force. I think Boise is slipping, although when you look at last week's pasting of ULL, you think, "They're back! Same old Boise." ULL sucks this year, and their QB play could be dreadful for the whole year. I think Boise's offensive stats are tainted playing Fresno, Hawaii, New Mexico, Wyoming, and other pathetic Mt. West defenses…while the Cougs has had to play against Stanford, Washington, USC, UCLA, ASU and other PAC 12 Ds. Boise lost a lot of defensive talent from last year, recruiting is not what it used to be, and they'll be missing their star LB, Joe Martarano…and maybe their starting TE and safety.

Washington State is the same team that beat Miami, UCLA, Arizona State, Oregon, and lost to Stanford by 2. Perfect team also for a backdoor cover. At 10.5, that makes it more likely than at 4 or 5 which is what this spread should be.

 

[ofred]

4* Washington -21.5 1H

Thought this line would be 24 so that extra 1/2 point is fine with me. I like the Huskies here because:
1) They have an FCS team on deck. No look ahead.
2) Their defense is not just very good, but create turnovers which could lead to an additional TD or 2 possibly.
3) Chris Petersen will not let the hype become part of the mentality of this team. He'll inform them that they are 1-0, and could be 1-1 after Saturday. That you don't win games in preseason polls but on the field. He'll have them ready at the beginning of the game.
4) UW has so many offensive running options it's ridiculous. Rutgers stacked the box to stop Gaskin, but the other running options, and the pass game negated their efforts. I say Gaskin breaks loose this week.
5) The Huskies could have beaten Rutgers by 60, but emptied the bench in the 2nd half. Idaho is a much slower, less athletic team than Rutgers, and I think they'll have a more difficult time with the difference of speed, strength, etc. on offense, defense and special teams.
6) How about those special teams? Not just the 2 TDs scored, but kick and punt coverage was also crisp and showed that Petersen has even the 2nd stringers bought into the "team".
7) UW at home, frenzied atmosphere.
8) Idaho: Oh, poor Idaho. They won last week by 3 over Big Sky's 8th ranked team, Montana State. Montana State lost their star QB to the Ducks, have only 4 returning offensive starters, and a defense that was awful last year( I saw them play here in Portland). Idaho's QB, Matt Linehan, is not too bad, although he looked that way last week. Their front 7 on defense, which is their biggest weakness, is in trouble in this game trying to stop the Huskies run game and pressuring Browning. Idaho's defense struggled mightily trying to stop Sun Belt offenses, and I see a big mismatch here. The Vandals will move to the FCS in 2018 which kind of tells you where this program is going. They recruit about as low as you can for a FBS team, and the move to the FCS will not help that.
9) UW fits the profile of a dominant team, although I don't buy into the hype(yet) that they are up there with the top 5 teams. Great coaching, run game, and defense. The revitalized passing game is icing on the cake.

 

[ofred]

3* Clemson -21 1H Clemson struggling in their 1st game vs. a tough Auburn defense was a good thing. We all know Clemson's offense is amazingly dynamic, and now they have to work on the fine details to really reach their potential. The 1st half vs. Troy will be their chance to shine. This O scored 40 on Alabama, 37 on Oklahoma, 45 on NC, 58 on Miami. I think their difficulties at Auburn will motivate them to come out playing sharp on Saturday. Also, they found their new-old WR Mike Williams, back from injury last year, who had 174 receiving yards last week. Add him to Watson, Gallman, Scott Refrow, and the rest…and god help the Troy defense. Clemson also felt pretty good that their young defenders played well last week, this being their biggest concern. They held Auburn to 3 points through three quarters and 262 yards for the game.

I also like that Troy played waaay down last week, beating up on Austin Peay, a FCS marshmallow, a team that did NOT win one game last year even with an easy schedule. If you have seen this before, it looks like this- All your plays are working, the defense is dominating, your team wins big and everyone is sure that you are damn good team, maybe even win the Sun Belt Conference. Then you go to Death Valley and the speed of the game is a blur, the noise is deafening, and the home teams momentum puts you behind 21-0 in the 1st qtr. That's what I see here. Troy lost almost all of their receivers to graduation, their running game is mediocre, and QB Brandon Silvers, a pocket passer, will be a sitting duck. Silvers is a decent QB vs. weaker competition, but inconsistent and TO prone vs. good competition. The game line of -36 also looks inviting.

 

[varkeyboy]

OFred....what's your max unit play? Thanks for the writeups.

 

[ofred]

2* Syracuse +14.5 Syracuse was tough at home last year, easily covering against LSU, Clemson, NC State and Pitt- all double digit covers. This play is also a contrarian play against the Lamar jackson hype. Yes, he's an incredible runner who can break the pocket for a long gainer at any time, but he also makes mistakes gambling and ad-libbing too much. Louisville does not have a recent history of blowing out opponents on the road. Syracuse has their own dual threat, Eric Dungey, and almost all of his RBs and WRs back this year. They also have a veteran defense that seemed to play great at home, but poorly on the road. Love the hire of Coach Dino Babers. Only his second game, but he knows how to get the most out of an offense and a QB. Glad they had Colgate last week to work out some timing and kinks. Syracuse plays this game to win, not just be respectable. Louisville looks ahead to next week's game with Florida State.


3* New Mexico -12.5 This game, like many rivalry games, has been a hard fought contest over the years. That's because New Mexico was a doormat just like their cross state rivals, N. Mexico St. This year will be different. The Lobos have turned a corner in their last 6 games. They gave Arizona a close game in their bowl matchup, won at Boise, won at Air Force, and defeated Utah State. Their defense has always been in shambles, but now they return almost all their starters and are at least respectable. But it's their offense that has turned them into a winning team. Even though their opponents know they are going to run on nearly every play, they run a very difficult to defend triple option that looks like a conga line in the backfield. Crazy, but effective. The Lobos have 2 QBs, Lamar Jordan, who didn't play last week, but will play this week- he's the guy that makes the running game dynamic….and Austin Apodoca, who is more of a passer. NM's running game often runs off 5, 6 and 8 yard runs that eventually wear down the defense.

New Mexico State has one very good thing going for it, RB Larry Rose- who had 1714 yards last season. Good news…he's not playing due to recovery from a hernia operation. The worst part about the Aggies is their defense. They were dead last in just about every Sun Belt defensive category last year. They gave up 40+ points to just about everyone last year. And over 50 points to six different teams. New Mexico State recruits worse than many FCS teams, and will join the FCS in 2018 due to the moribund state of this program. QB Tyler Matthews left the program, and QB Tyler Rogers got arrested for misdemeanor battery in late August. These were the 2 guys competing for the starting job. Rogers is the starter as his case is pending. Not important, but I just think Bob Davie has his Lobos believing and confident, while New Mexico State seems going the opposite way. Davie also has the motivation, which he has been using, that the Lobos have lost their 2nd game of the season many times over the past 10 years. No letdowns this time. And finally a defense.

 

[ofred]

OFred....what's your max unit play? Thanks for the writeups.

A 1* is a small play. 2-4* are medium plays. 5* and over are large plays. I hardly ever play a 9* or 10*, but I like to keep that option open in case.

 

[varkeyboy]

A 1* is a small play. 2-4* are medium plays. 5* and over are large plays. I hardly ever play a 9* or 10*, but I like to keep that option open in case.

Thanks for explaining. Cheers and let's do this!

 

[JarFly]

Great start week 1 and wishing you continued success o fred.

 

[TrickyGator]

love these detailed write ups! really appreciate it fred!

 

[PatsFanatic]

GL Fred!