Week 2 game insights

[THEGAME9000]

WEEK 2

HOU at TEN(6.5) 40...
hou 3-12 ats on the road off a home game s 06
ten 15-4 over after scoring and allowing 14pts or less s 98

MINN(10) at DET 46...
min 2-7 ats as div road favs s 01
min 1-9 under in game 2 of reg sea s 99
min 1-11 under as favs of 7+pts s 03
min 3-12 under off a su win of 14+pts s 03
det 7-3 ats after allowing 40+pts s 03
det 10-2 ats as dd dogs s 06
series...since 2000 all even years, 00,02,04,06,08 have produced a lower pt total in minn, all odd years, 01,03,05,07 have produced a lower pt total in detroit.

CAR at ATL(6) 42.5...
car 6-1 ats as div road dogs s 03
car 12-3 ats as a road dog of 3.5-7pts s 02
atl 1-10 ats in 2nd of b2b home games s 03

STL at WASH(9.5) 37...
system...road dogs off a shutout loss as a road dog are 12-4 ats s 90
wash 3-10-2 ats in 1st fav role of reg sea s 94

NE(3.5) at NYJ 45.5...
ne 12-2 ats as div road favs s 03
ne 18-4-1 ats in single game road stands s 02
series...ne is 11-4-1 ats in last 16 games
..........the road team is 17-3-1 ats s 99

OAK at KC(3) 38.5...
oak 0-6 ats after playing sd s 05
oak 7-2 ats as div road dogs s 06
kc 9-1-1 ats in sept series matchups s 81
kc 1-15-2 under in reg sea home opener s 91
series...the road team has covered 11 of last 12 s 03
..........only 1 of last 8 games has exceeded 40 total pts

CIN at GB(9) 42.5...
cin 6-1 ats before hosting pittsburgh s 02
gb 0-3-2 ats after hosting chi s 04

NO at PHI(P) 46...(waiting for line)
no 11-4-2 ats in 1st of b2b road games s 99
no 11-3 over off a su home win s 05
career...brees is 12-1 su and 11-2 ats as a road fav
phi 4-16 under after scoring 30+pts s 04
phi 16-5-1 over as a dog s 05

ARI at JAX(3) 42.5...
ari 3-8 ats on the road off a div home game s 02
ari 4-14 ats on the road before playing at least 2 straight home games s 99
ari 6-16 ats in 1st of b2b home games s 97
system...western time zone teams playing an eastern time zone game in sept are 19-4 over s 03

TB at BUF(5) 42...
tb 2-10 ats on the road vs non-conf opp s 03
buf 11-1 ats after visiting ne s 96
buf 13-3 ats after playing ne s 00

SEA at SF(1.5) 39.5...
sea 0-9-2 ats on the road off a su home win of 21+pts s 01
sea 1-12 ats on the road off a su home win of 10+pts s 05

BAL at SD(3) 40.5...
bal 0-9 under after covering as a dd fav s 00
bal 0-11 under in 1st non-div road game s 98
sd 7-1-1 ats in 1st of 2+ home games s 04

CLE at DEN(3) 39...
cle 13-2 ats after allowing 30+pts s 05
cle 17-5-1 ats off an over s 05
den 9-0 su in home openers s 00

NYG at DAL(3) 44.5...
ny 5-0 ats after hosting wash s 04
ny 5-2 ats as div road dogs s 06
ny 21-9 ats on the road with o/u line of 42+pts s 02
dal 8-1 ats before mnf s 04
dal 3-10 ats as div home favs s 04
dal 4-14-1 under at home off an over s 04

IND(3) at MIA 42...
ind 7-1 ats as a fav of 3+pts on mnf s 00
ind 9-3-1 ats in 1st of b2b road games s 03
ind 8-0 over on the road vs non-div opp after playing a div home game s 02


i'll post my plays late friday or saturday, gotta work a little later friday.

GAME.

 

[Huego]

thanks for all the work man, great info

 

[THEGAME9000]

thanks for all the work man, great info

 

[skinsfan21]

This is exactly why I am a member on this site. Great great stuff

 

[RoughingThePasser]

Looks to me like Week 2 is SCREAMING 10 teamer, if it hits I think I'll take us out somewhere nice to eat, maybe Wendys, lol. Thanks for the stats, i sure love the randomness that all fits together.

 

[THEGAME9000]

Looks to me like Week 2 is SCREAMING 10 teamer, if it hits I think I'll take us out somewhere nice to eat, maybe Wendys, lol. Thanks for the stats, i sure love the randomness that all fits together.

i'll have a chili.....

 

[TheCommish]

Thx for the stats. Awesome breakdown.

 

[KOOPSTAKNICCA]

Paycheck plays are money in the bank. Wish I had parlayed them together last week. Trends support a Cincy cover, what do u think about the total? I jumped on over 41 earlier. Also, I've read an article that suggest to bet Under in NFL week 2 on low point totals. I'll get the exact stats here in a few.

 

[THEGAME9000]

Paycheck plays are money in the bank. Wish I had parlayed them together last week. Trends support a Cincy cover, what do u think about the total? I jumped on over 41 earlier. Also, I've read an article that suggest to bet Under in NFL week 2 on low point totals. I'll get the exact stats here in a few.

hard to say on the total, they play each other so little.
but this week i'm expecting the unexpected, i think the dogs will run the show this week...

 

[odetokermit]

From the insights I like...Indy, Jack, Car, KC

 

[Gravy]

Game,Thanks again for last week and for doing this each and every week !

 

[THEGAME9000]

Thanks for the stats, i sure love the randomness that all fits together.

RTP...

just looking this over, i did'nt give you enough credit...just beautiful.
absolutely well said.

game.

 

[THEGAME9000]

GRAVY....i know you dig the #'s like i do...good luck this week!

GAME.

 

[pfossil]

Game,
Thanks for the Insights.
Will you also be posting your Rating #'s in the near future?
Thanks Again

 

[Gravy]

GRAVY....i know you dig the #'s like i do...good luck this week!

GAME.

Game,This might be a crazy weekend I feel and you might be on to something here.Alot of public favorites last weekend and time for the books to get some money back this weekend I think.

 

[THEGAME9000]

Game,
Thanks for the Insights.
Will you also be posting your Rating #'s in the near future?
Thanks Again

after the way week 1 came out on the ratings #'s i was tempted to put them up this week, turns out a bunch of games lined up in a way that already has gone 4-0 ats in week 1.
but it's just too early...they'll be up for week 4...unless they just keep lining up and force me to put'em up.

thanks for watching, it's good to have somebody remember the complete package.

GAME.

 

[THEGAME9000]

Game,This might be a crazy weekend I feel and you might be on to something here.Alot of public favorites last weekend and time for the books to get some money back this weekend I think.

GRAVY, I THINK YOUR RIGHT ON THE MONEY.
watch the bad get good and the good get it bad, the high go low, and the low get high....:wink:

 

[tbird]

Thanks for all that you do game d1g1t

 

[KOOPSTAKNICCA]

A read on NFL totals

NFL Week 1: Games with OU set at 44 pts or greater have gone 7-22 (76% Under) since 2003, 3-13 (81% Under) last 3 seasons, not including this year. I'm not going to focus on this system as week 1 has already pass. Which brings me to this point for the following week to come.

NFL Week 2: This is the flip side to the Week 1 System stated above. A low OU line means a LOW-scoring outcome. OU lines will start to creep up once each team has a couple of games under their belts (when we get to October). But you really can't expect any team to have their offense in mid-season form right out of the gate. So in Week Two, we'll take a look at an OU line that used to be the definitive "key number" in NFL Totals wagering. That's the OU line of 37 points. From 1980 to 2000, more NFL games finished exactly on this number than any other. Not all that suprising, given all the possible potential final score outcomes which finish fight on top of this number. Here's the list of fnal scores that finish exactly on 37 points. 37-0, 34-3, 31-6, 30-7, 27-10, 24-13, and 20-17.

In this decade however, overall NFL scoring is on a slight rise. The average points scored in an NFL game since the 2000 season has gone from 37 to 41 points. So 41 is now the exact median of an NFL game. Approx. half of the games go over and half go under 41 points. For the purposes of our Week 2 query, we'll use the OU line of 37 points. NFL week 2 non-division games with an OU line of 37< points have gone 11-30-3 OU since 1980. What I like about this OU system is that it has been extremely reliable going back as far as the 1980 season. And you can't argue with a 73% success rate over a 29 year period! The system has gotten stronger as of late. Since the 2002 season, these games have gone 2-9-1 OU (82% Under). Since 2006 season, these games have gone 1-5-2 OU (83% Under). One final note in regards to this system- if you find a game in Week 2 that has an OU line of less than 37 points, the results have gone a very UNDER-whelming 2-14 OU since the 1982 season. Source-Marc Lawrence's Playbook, Handicapper's corner page 232-233.

St. Louis vs Washington O/U is currently at 37 and 36.5 at some shops.
Just some food for thought when betting totals this week.
@)@)
Koopsta Knicca

 

[THEGAME9000]

KOOP...

i mentioned once before that i love the layout of his pages for teams, it's basically the same that i have, everything infront of you.
as for the information he gives out and his numbers you can't take any of them to heart without back checking them with your own records, his book is fraught with mistakes and inacuracies..
example..check his team history for the dolphins in 2003 and 2004.
the trends he has written don't even line up with his own history.
there are countless mistakes and just bad information throughout that book.(that's the reason he does'nt date anything)
i have to check those #'s out, i'll run them saturday,

thankx