WEEK 17 STATS,SYSTEMS,INFO.

THEGAME9000 · Dec 26, 2003

BUF/NE(8)34..
phi found out last week what we've known all year, after playing miami it's tough to cover. 2-11-1 ats on the year.
this is double tough for buffalo who has covered 2 of the last 23 after miami(0-12 last 12).
ne covered 9 of thier last 11 season finales, and have went 9-2 at home in finales since 77.
ne has went 13-2-1 ats in 2nd game of series matchup since 87.
#'s system has ne home fav by 7(7-1-1 ats)L9P.

PHI(7)41/WASH...
lots of "o-fors"
phi 6-0 ats as div rd favs since 2000
phi 8-0 ats after allowing 31 or more pts.
wash 8-0 ats as dogs in season finales since 77.
diff-maker..in the series..games where pt spread was 5 or more, the underdog went 10-2-1 ats since 87.
#'s system has phi road fav by 11(0-2 ats)L2P

TB/TEN(7)41..
system plays on side and total.
play any non-div road dog who lost straight-up last week as a fav of 7 or more pts vs div opponent. (15-3 ats)
play the over on any team playing a non-div game and coming off a straight-up home loss of 3 or less pts as a div fav, and in that game scored more than 21 points.(19-2-1 ats)
both paid this year earlier.

CHI/KC(10)45..
chi 4-17 ats as dec road dogs.
kc 8-1 ats at home in season finales since 77.
kc 7-2 ats as favs in season finales since 77.
#'s system has kc home fav of 7(7-1-1 ats)L9P.

DEN/GB(6.5)43..
den 1-6 ats in final road game last 7 years.
gb 6-1 ats at home off b2b road games since 2000.
gb 8-1-1 ats in last home game of season last 10 years.
gb 8-0 ats after a monday night game since 2000(2-0 this year).

OAK/SD(4)46..
dog covered 18 of last 26 in series.
road team covered 16 of last 22 in series.
sd 0-4-1 ats as div home fav since 98.
series split pt spread wins 8 of last 10 years.(sd cov 1st)
series games in sd average 29 pts per game since 87.(suck on that total.)

other #'s system play against's...
jacksonville
carolina
minnesota

scraps...
straight-up winner of cle/cin series covered last 8 straight.
team who covered 1st game of ny/mia series covered 2nd, 10 of last 12 years.
minn covered 2 of last 10 final road games.
pitt 1-7-1 ats after scoring 40 or more since 95.
bal 7-1-1 ats after playing cleveland and 7-1 ats at home in season finales.

sorry to lazy to write anymore...

GAME.

[This message was edited by THEGAME9000 on December 27, 2003 at 02:12 AM.]

mickj · Dec 26, 2003

What's the Jax play against? TIA

bearmz · Dec 27, 2003

I'd be careful with the KC game. Bears for some reason have played the AFC well even with Wanny and all their poor teams. They may not have won, but have hung in late. This year are 3-0 SU vs Ok, SD, and Den. If NE wins Sat, KC has no reason to win.
GL

THEGAME9000 · Dec 27, 2003

there is no such thing as "no reason to win", or "mailing it in".
these are foolish terms invented by an ignorant, mumbling fool on MNF some 20 years ago named dork deerdump, in trying to make allowances or reasons for his beloved cardinals playing so poorly late in the season.
no one knew this idiots words would have such a profound effect or last this long in the subconcious memories of fans.
show me a team going into the playoffs who has, "no reason to win", and i'll show you a completely inexperienced and soon to be fired coach.

momentum, and fine tuning is what really happens with good teams and experienced coaching staffs.

GAME.

mickj · Dec 27, 2003

Great info Game. Could you give the #s on Jax, Car, & Minn?

THEGAME9000 · Dec 27, 2003

carolina and jacksonville are rd favs of 7, and minn's a rd fav of 17.
together these plays have went 0-5-2 ats last 7 opportunities.
if your looking for stats on the games, there isn't really any outstanding.

GAME.

cfbguy · Dec 27, 2003

huh??? the vikes are 8 point favs at arizona and the jags are the dog here not the fav...what have i missed??~6killer

THEGAME9000 · Dec 27, 2003

#'s system.

CedarCreaker · Dec 27, 2003

GAME...understand yours is a number/points system but based on your write ups..Other than the NE/Buff game ..I really can't figure out who you like...would really like to know the Phil game as it is tonite...thanx

Cedar

bearmz · Dec 27, 2003

Let's see, if I'm Dick Vermeil, I'll leave Green and Holmes in an entire game after both have a history of injuries in a meaningless game to "tune up" after already playing 15 games. Vermeil has had the Chiefs practicing soft for a month now, wearing pads once a week. It makes sense then to fine tune an offense just prior to a playoff run vs an NFL team that is still playing hard for it's coach, albeit a lame duck one. Buffalo's Marv Levy was notorious for sitting starters the last game of season and although he lost 4 SBs, they did make it to 4 SBs with said strategy. If your team is still figuring out what to do at this point, one meaningless game will not solve it. If Vermeil keeps his starters in long in this game, bet the house against them then, because they have major problems.

THEGAME9000 · Dec 28, 2003

TAKE KC TO THE BANK!!

GAME.

fosho · Dec 28, 2003

Thanks for your plays...I'm on KC, GB and Balt...Large. GL

SaltyBrine · Dec 28, 2003

TheGame...there's no such thing as "needing to win" or "mailing it in"? That's totally absurd! The final week of the NFL regular season has been a boon for squares and sharps alike for many years, as far more often than not those teams "needing to win" have gotten the best of those that may be "mailing it in". Yesterday's results playing on the teams "needing to win" vs. those out of the hunt...3-0. More to come today. You've generally got great info, but you're off the mark on this statement.

Menses · Dec 28, 2003

I dont know about that ...because it looks like the lions and the texans came to play today...figures...things are never what they seem in the NFL.

THEGAME9000 · Dec 28, 2003

SB,
not doing so good so far today?

GAME.

bearmz · Dec 28, 2003

I stand corrected on KC game. I knew KC wanted to tune their rush D and they did. Bears were as bad as can be. Kord's 2 INT and quick hook was typical Jauron BS. If this sad sack is still their coach, why would anyone pay to see them play?
I will never dispute your trends again. Looked very good on earlies.
GL and continued good info.

SaltyBrine · Dec 28, 2003

Game...Rams, Bengals, Colts lose. Titans, Chiefs win. 2-3 with Vikings, Packers pending. Please understand I don't feel that any of these plays are automatic...I still think you have the handicap each game individually. But the need vs. potential don't care factor has to be factored in the last week of the season. Even just blindly playing the apparent obvious side, it's 5-3 overall with two games left. That's not a bad position.

bearmz · Dec 28, 2003

When I look at trends, I try to isolate on HC if possible. 10 yr old TEAM trends are based on personnel no longer around, for the most part. Situational trends are useful in they are more general and apply to all teams. Trends are useful, but just a part of the equation. Now, if someone could predict TO's, that's the golden egg.
GL and hit the book hard.

THEGAME9000 · Dec 28, 2003

PARODY IN THE NFL, the more it changes, the more it stays the same.
i hope everyone made a ton this week.
#'s system once again on fire and trends were killers.

CHA-CHING!!

GAME.