Week 16 with more revealing research

[Michelangelo]

The research paid off last week as I finally zoomed in on the week's key pointer - the home dog, specifically the Week 15 Home Dog.

So this week I went back to studying Week 16 specifically for the past five years. The isolations were again revealing.

The record:

Wk 1 // 2-7
Wk 2 // 4-3-1
Wk 3 // 6-3
Wk 4 // 6-2
Wk 5 // 2-4-1
Wk 6 // 4-5
Wk 7 // 4-3
Wk 8 // 7-2
WK 9 // 6-5
Wk 10 // 2-8
WK 11 // 4-7
WK 12 // 4-2-1
Wk 13 // 6-8
Wk 14 // 4-5
Wk 15 // 6-1-1

Saturday night:

Baltimore + ?* (@ Dal)

*Bodog's line is now up tp +5'. The late money is pouring in on the Cowgirls. Don't be fooled. Gonna hold and watch. If I can get 6 I'll leap. I'll come back and post my line when I lock in. The line will, as always, be current, that is the line available when I post it. If it falls back to 5 I'll grab that too.

Here's the results of the Week 16 isolations from the past 5 years.

Week 16 Home Favorites of between -3' and -6' are 4-12 ATS (1-8 ATS L2 years)
- against Dallas

Week 16 Home Favorites of between -3' and -6' with a SU won/lost record of within one game of each other, are 0-7 ATS
- against Dallas (both teams are 9-5 SU)

Week 16 Home Favorites of between -3' and -6' who are playing in a "spotlight game" are 0-2 ATS
- against Dallas

I also keep my own Defensive Power Ratings. Baltimore wins this category by a wide margin. This factor points directly to an underrated dog.

Tonight's play is clearly on Baltimore.

Good luck.

 

[Michelangelo]

Just went to +6 at Bodog.

I'm locking it in.

Good luck.

 

[HansGruber]

Good stuff, Mike.
BOL tonight.
:toast:

 

[Michelangelo]

Thank you Hans. Best of luck to you.

Line holding steady at Bodog at +6 as of right now.

 

[HansGruber]

Bodog is great for dogs. I'm at theGreek which is holding at +5.

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

:howdy:Hello Michelangelo...

I am on the other side of this contest as I snagged Dallas -4 on Friday morning, however, as usual win or lose you never cease to amaze me with the detail oriented and insightful views that you have!!

Take care and be well my friend

Dirtydog

 

[lor]

Would the Giant/Carolina, Chi/GB & Minn/Atla game be a play ON THE DOG using this system? Thanks

Week 16 Home Favorites of between -3' and -6' are 4-12 ATS (1-8 ATS L2 years)
- against Dallas

Week 16 Home Favorites of between -3' and -6' with a SU won/lost record of within one game of each other, are 0-7 ATS
- against Dallas (both teams are 9-5 SU)

Week 16 Home Favorites of between -3' and -6' who are playing in a "spotlight game" are 0-2 ATS
- against Dallas

 

[Michelangelo]

Thanks Dog. That's a great compliment coming from you.

lor, Tune in tommorow when I'm done examining the isolations. I think you will be happy you did.

 

[Michelangelo]

Gettin' away from studyin' this Week 16 stuff for a minute to make a rare total play.

The weather on the lake in Cleveland tommorow is supposed to be brutal. Sustained winds of 40 mph and wind chills below zero are called for. Mix in a little of the white stuff. (Thank you aiverson)

Those winds should keep the passing game to a minimum. That means run, run, run. Oh by the way. Neither Clev nor Cinci has had a running TD by a running back in their last four games.

Add:

Cin/Cle Under 31'

See ya with the rest of the Week 16 stuff tommorow.

 

[Michelangelo]

While studying the isolations for Week 16 I found something very revealing that I think goes against conventional wisdom and thought you guys should know.

Outdoor Northern Teams vs Southern (or dome) Teams
Week 16 only
Last 5 years

'07
(14-0) NEn -22 vs Mia (1-13) L 28-7

'06
(7-7) Buf -5 vs Ten (7-7) L 29-30
(4-10) Cle -3 vs TBy (3-11) L 7-22
(6-8) GBy -3' vs Min (dome) (6-8) L 9-7
(7-7) NYG -3 vs NOr (9-5) L 7-30

'05
none

'04
none

'03
(6-8) Buf -2' vs Mia (8-6) L 3-20
(6-8) Chi -4' vs Was (5-9) L 27-24
(4-10) Cle +3 vs Bal (8-6) L 0-35
(11-3) Phi -7 vs SFo (6-8) L 28-31
(5-9) Pit -6' vs SDo (3-11) W 40-24

There's a bit of subjectivity involved in this study and the plays it points to for today but I tried to be objective. You may disagree with my interpretation of the Cold Weather and Warm Weather teams but the findings are undeniable. 1-9 ATS for the Cold Weather teams. Betcha didn't expect that!

This study would point to the following plays today:

Miami -4 (@ KCy)
Azo +8' (@ NEn)
Car +3 (@ NYG)

More Week 16 specific stuff coming.

​

 

[Michelangelo]

OK. Back to the stuff that got us that Raven win last night.

We've already established that Week 16 Home Favorites of between -3' and -6' who are within one game of each other in the SU standings (this category includes same record teams) were 0-7 ATS over the past five years. Make that 0-8 ATS after last night.

Upon further studying the isolations I found that we can now expand the spread category in the above situation to -3 to -6'. The teams fitting the above parameters but lined at -3 were 0-5 ATS!

So adding that number to the previously defined numbers brings this situation to an incredible 0-13 ATS in Week 16 over the past five years.

This would point to the following plays today:

Atl +3 (@ Min)
Car +3' (@ NYG)

///

Further study shows me that ALL Week 16 teams who are Home Favorites over a team with a SU record within one game of that favorite are 2-17-1 over the past five years.

So we now can include a play against New England.

Azo +8' (vs NEn)

///

Lastly I found that Week 16 Home Favorites within two SU games in the standings (6-8 vs 4-10; 7-5 vs 9-3; etc) of their opposition were 3-11 ATS over the past five years.

This points to the following plays:

Cin +3 (@ Cle)
Buf +7 (@ Den)

///

I am also adding two Defensive superiority plays from my Defensive Power Ratings:

TBy -4 (vs SDo)
Oak +7 (vs Hou)
Arizona and Buffalo also fit this category but they are already plays.

So my plays for today will be:

Cle/Cin Under 31'
Mia -4 (@ KCy)
Azo +8' (@ NEn)
Car +3' (@ NYG)
Atl +3 (@ Min)
Cin +3 (@ Cle)
Buf +7 (@ Den)
TBy -4 (vs SDo)
Oak +7 (vs Hou)

Carolina and Atlanta are the strongest, fitting the 13-0 category.

Good luck.

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

:howdy:Hello Michelangelo...

Great insight as usual my friend, as a side note I am on Atlanta and Buffalo myself and will jump on both Arizona and Carolina as well if I can get the Cards +9 and the Panthers +3.5 before kickoff.

Once again Great job and good luck to you today!!

Dirtydog

 

[Michelangelo]

Yea Dog. Arizona should be included in the strongest category as they come up three different times.

Good luck man.

 

[RDTrains]

Car +3' (@ NYG)


FYI, L6 for NYG at home in December: 0-6 S/U

 

[Michelangelo]

Thanks RD. Nothin' like a little more ammo for the arsenal.

Best of luck.

 

[Thomas]

Nice study Jim and I like most of them myself, however do you remember what I told you last week about your home team, lol. How about life by the drop going for 16 in a row over at ts, now that's drama baby. Best of luck today Mich

 

[Michelangelo]

I know Tom, I suck at picking on or against the Pats this year. But I ain't pickin' this one. The studies are. So I'll blame them if I lose. But I'm not plannin' on that today. Sometimes the info pours out of my studies. Sometimes it's throw away stuff, wasted time. But, like last week I'm expecting these studies to pay big dividends. This is stuff no one else knows about. That's what gives it it's power. I hope.

Life By The Drop is on the most incredible run I have ever witnessed. Couldn't happen to a better guy. Rootin' for his Dolphin pick today Big Time. Wanna see 17-0. He can do it. He's a solid 'capper. Guess his record would certainly attest to that. Duh!

Good luck today Tom.

 

[lor]

I'm glad I tuned in :toast:. Thanks for the winners. That Carolina game hno: Tonight Green Bay

 

[cruisin]

Nice week, Mich. WTG at the end of the season!:toast:

 

[Michelangelo]

Jeez I even jinx the studies when I bet against my Pats. You're right Tom. No more betting against the Pats for me. Sure do hope I get a few more opportunities though.

LOR, Glad you cashed man. And yes, GBy tonight.

cruisin, Thanks. Yea cruisin. Like I told Thomas earlier. Sometimes the studies spit out some real powerful stuff. Sometimes they don't. I knew the last two weeks would end in the positive. These were powerful studies.

The 14-0 thingy delineated earlier in the thread took a tough loss last night when the Giants scored a TD instead of a FG to decide overtime. If the thing was gonna lose I suppose that's the way I'd prefer to see it lose 'cause once we got into OT we had four possible outcomes, two of them likely, two of them much less likely. The two likely outcomes (FG by either team) would have pushed the record to 15-0. And one (Carolina TD) of the less likely outcomes (TD by either team) also would have pushed the record to 15-0. Unfortunately the less likely outcome with a negative expectation occurred, a Giant TD. So the record now stands at 14-1.

Well it so happens that we have another situation fitting the Week 16 parameters of the 14-1 thingy tonight. I'll take my chances.

Add:

Green Bay +4 (@ Chi)

Good luck.