Week 16 #'s

[THEGAME9000]

Week 16

Ari 130
Atl 116
Bal 116
Buf 119
Car 129
Chi 114
Cin 128
Cle 113
Dal 116
Den 125
Det 118
Gb 125
Hou 116
Ind 114
Jax 114
Kc 129
Mia 111
Min 120
Ne 128
No 113
Nyg 120
Nyj 120
Oak 117
Phi 118
Pit 130
Stl 116
Sd 115
Sf 111
Sea 131
Tb 114
Ten 107
Was 117



Cover chart
Pts....home favs.........................road favs.................................home picks
........................................................................................."pick"w
1.......wlpwlwp..............................lwlllw...............................-1w.
2.......wwwwwwwlwwlww..............wlplwwllww........................-2l..
3.......lwlllwwll.............................lllwwwl..............................-3l-3l-3l-3.5l
4.......wwlwwlwwww.....................wwwllwlpl..........................-4l-4l
5.......lwlwwlwl.............................lwpllwwww..........................
6.......pwwlwwlww........................wlwllwwllwlwl......................
7.......wpllww...............................lwlwlw..................................
8.......wlllllwll...............................lwwwlwllwwww..........................
9.......llllw....................................wwwl...................................
10.....llllll....................................ww..........................................
11.....llw......................................llwwlwlw................................
12.....lwpl.....................................wlw.....................................
13.....lplw.....................................lllwllwww..............................
14.....ll........................................lp......................................
15.....wl.......................................wlw.....................................
16.....l.........................................wwww................................
17...............................................ww.........................................
18.....wwww..................................ll.........................................
19.....w..................................................................................
20..........................................................................................
21.....w......................................................................................
22..........................................................................................
23..........................................................................................
24..........................................................................................
25..........................................................................................

Just wanted to make sure I got the #'s up in time.
The last couple weeks I looked at the "what have you done for me lately" angle...it paid last week to do so, Buffalo was a road fav of 4....4-3 ats on the year but (1-3 ats) in the last 4 plays...wash covered, the rd favs of 4 took another loss and the result went from 1-3 ats the last 4, to 1-4 ats..."what have you done lately?"
Same with Detroit last week, road favs by 5, 4-3-1 ats on the year, but 3-0 ats in last 3 plays...det covers, now 4-0 ats.
There are 3 such plays this week, might want to take a look at that angle as well.
I'll be back up with more info for the bowl and who goes, why and how.

I'm kinda rushed now so it will take me a bit to pop the rest...I'll be back shortly.

GAME.

 

[nyzman]

Oak hm fav -2== 11-2

 

[THEGAME9000]

The Super Bowl run...
The 20pt system dictates who goes to the bowl,"not win it neccesarily, but "get there".
It has been correct for 13 of the last 15 straight years, one of the off years, no team had reached the 20 pts required.

There are only 2 teams remaining this year who have the possibility of reaching 20+pts with just 2 games left to play.(if you know up front the team will make the Super Bowl, before the 1st wildcard game even starts) it gives you a serious advantage in wagering the playoff games...money lines as one example...
For every playoff team, you apply this formula, only using regular season games.
No preseason games, no post season games...

Formula...
+3pts for each su win where they hold their opponent to less than 14pts
+2pts for each su win where they allow their opponent to score more than 30pts
-3pts for each su loss where their opponent scores more than 30pts
-2pts for each su loss where their opponent scores less than 14pts

As the #'s currently stand now after week 15...

1 Seattle +18
2 New England + 14
3 Carolina + 13
4 Pittsburgh + 11
5 Arizona +10
6 Denver + 10
7 Houston + 9
8 Green Bay +9
9 Cincinnati + 7
10 Kansas city +6
11 Minnesota +3
12 Washington -3

I'll break down more of it tomorrow, I wanna watch the game....

 

[nyzman]

Oak hm fav -2== 11-2

Did I do that backwards??

 

[THEGAME9000]

Did I do that backwards??

You're correct, home favs of 2 covered 11 of the 13 opportunities on the year...selection is Oakland

GAME.

 

[THEGAME9000]

finishing the reverse engineering of the Super Bowl...

As it is there are only 2 teams remaining (using the #'s formula), who are capable of reaching 20 or more pts with 2 games left..
That's New England and Seattle
Let's break down the chances and see who has the better chance of getting there.

12-2 New England (+14) needs to win out and hold both opponents to less than 14pts, their 2 remaining games are on the road vs divisional rivals, let's check out their history in these spots.

Year.....14...13...12...11...10...09...08...07
Ne.......17...27...49...37...14....9....19...38
Ny.......16...30...19...16...28...16...10...14.........ny was held to under 14pts only once in 8 years

Year.....14...13...12...11...10...09...08...07
Ne.......20...20...23...38...41...21...48...49
Mia......33...24...16...24...14...22...28...28........mia was held to under 14pts 0 times in 8 years

9-5 Seattle (+18) needs to win out and hold at least one opponent to less than 14pts, they also have 2 divisional games left, one at home and one on the road.
Let's check out the history in these spots.

Year.......14...13...12...11...10...09...08...07
Stl..........6.....9....13...13....6....0....13....6
Sea........20...27...20...30...16...28...37...33.........stl was held to under 14pts every game over last 8 years

Year......14...13...12...11...10...09...08...07
Sea.......35...34...16...20...36...20...21...20
Ari.........6....22...20...23...18...31...34...23.........Ariz was held under 14pts once in last 8 years

Path to 20+pts seems more likely for Seattle, let's assume they get it and apply the #'s

Since Seattle has the highest # of all the teams in the playoffs...
**the sb team with the lower # of the 2 participants has covered ats in 9 of last 10 years since 05, as well as winning the game su in 9 of last 11 years since 04**

Given the path Seattle had to take to get to the bowl, knocking out Carolina and/or Green Bay and/or Arizona and previous sb experience they would undoubtedly be favored in the game..
**when the team with the lower # is the dog in the bowl they're 7-0 ats and 6-1 su s 01**

Now we're looking for the afc representative in the bowl, it's important to have the afc team have an equal or worse finishing reg season record than Seattle (for different reasons), and the only reasonable teams out there are Pittsburgh and Kansas city.
With their records currently the same, whichever team of these 2 who finishes with the worse reg season record will become the next Super Bowl champion.

Sometimes the Super Bowl teams previously meet in the regular season, when this happens the team who lost the reg sea game su, avenges it and gets the win in the bowl, The last 7 times this occurred the reg sea loser got the win 5 times...I believe that's the case this year...when Seattle beat Pittsburgh on November 29th at home 39-30

GAME.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

finishing the reverse engineering of the Super Bowl...

As it is there are only 2 teams remaining (using the #'s formula), who are capable of reaching 20 or more pts with 2 games left..
That's New England and Seattle
Let's break down the chances and see who has the better chance of getting there.

12-2 New England (+14) needs to win out and hold both opponents to less than 14pts, their 2 remaining games are on the road vs divisional rivals, let's check out their history in these spots.

Year.....14...13...12...11...10...09...08...07
Ne.......17...27...49...37...14....9....19...38
Ny.......16...30...19...16...28...16...10...14.........ny was held to under 14pts only once in 8 years

Year.....14...13...12...11...10...09...08...07
Ne.......20...20...23...38...41...21...48...49
Mia......33...24...16...24...14...22...28...28........mia was held to under 14pts 0 times in 8 years

9-5 Seattle (+18) needs to win out and hold at least one opponent to less than 14pts, they also have 2 divisional games left, one at home and one on the road.
Let's check out the history in these spots.

Year.......14...13...12...11...10...09...08...07
Stl..........6.....9....13...13....6....0....13....6
Sea........20...27...20...30...16...28...37...33.........stl was held to under 14pts every game over last 8 years

Year......14...13...12...11...10...09...08...07
Sea.......35...34...16...20...36...20...21...20
Ari.........6....22...20...23...18...31...34...23.........Ariz was held under 14pts once in last 8 years

Path to 20+pts seems more likely for Seattle, let's assume they get it and apply the #'s

Since Seattle has the highest # of all the teams in the playoffs...
**the sb team with the lower # of the 2 participants has covered ats in 9 of last 10 years since 05, as well as winning the game su in 9 of last 11 years since 04**

Given the path Seattle had to take to get to the bowl, knocking out Carolina and/or Green Bay and/or Arizona and previous sb experience they would undoubtedly be favored in the game..
**when the team with the lower # is the dog in the bowl they're 7-0 ats and 6-1 su s 01**

Now we're looking for the afc representative in the bowl, it's important to have the afc team have an equal or worse finishing reg season record than Seattle (for different reasons), and the only reasonable teams out there are Pittsburgh and Kansas city.
With their records currently the same, whichever team of these 2 who finishes with the worse reg season record will become the next Super Bowl champion.

Sometimes the Super Bowl teams previously meet in the regular season, when this happens the team who lost the reg sea game su, avenges it and gets the win in the bowl, The last 7 times this occurred the reg sea loser got the win 5 times...I believe that's the case this year...when Seattle beat Pittsburgh on November 29th at home 39-30

GAME.

Nice breakdown Game.......would be another great super bowl between these two......last time these two teams played each other in the super bowl was 2004, the refs controlled the game & handed Pitt the trophy basically........

This matchup would definitely bring in high amounts of betting & viewership as well.

I can see the public betting Seattle in the bowl just off of the terrible play call on the last play of last years SB. Run the ball at the 2 yard line & you win another ring.......I wonder if Pete Carroll got a decents nights sleep since that faithful call.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Meant to say super bowl Pitt vs Seattle in 2005*****

 

[THEGAME9000]

CG....this is just the way I see it ending according to the math...
If I had my choice as to how it ends, I'd much rather have it with the undefeated Carolina team facing the team who tried being perfect as you described before...ne facing Carolina...another sb rematch...
Given the 12 probable playoff teams this year there could be 14 different Super Bowl rematches.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

CG....this is just the way I see it ending according to the math...
If I had my choice as to how it ends, I'd much rather have it with the undefeated Carolina team facing the team who tried being perfect as you described before...ne facing Carolina...another sb rematch...
Given the 12 probable playoff teams this year there could be 14 different Super Bowl rematches.

Yes, it does seem like there are quote a few rematches. A friend texted me saying a Pitt vs Gbay rematch, he's a big Steelers fan & wants revenge, haha!

 

[Deadbeats]

Are the plays...Chi (3-0), Dal (6-3), NE (8-4), Hou (3-1)?

 

[XSPower]

Good luck today my friend!!!

 

[JP-8]

I see hou and NE for sure.. Clarification on the other two?

 

[justanobserver]

I see:

Min 120 Vs. NYG 120 = PK = w (no play)
Chi 114 Vs. TB 114= PK = w (no play)
Car 129 Vs. Atl 116 = 13 Away Fav = lllwllwww (4-5 No play)
Buf 119 Vs. Dal 116 =3 Home Fav = lwlllwwll (3-6 Play on Dallas)
Jax 114 Vs. No 113 = 1 Away Fav = lwlllw (2-4 No play)
Sf 111 Vs. Det 118 = 7 Home Fav = wpllww (3-2-1 No play)
Cle 113 Vs. Kc 129 = 16 Home Fav = l (No play)
Ind 114 Vs. Mia 111 = 3 Away Fav = lllwwwl (3-4 No play)
Ne 128 Vs. Nyj 120 = 8 Away Fav = lwwwlwllwwww (8-4 Play on Patriots)
Hou 116 Vs. Ten 107 = 9 Away Fav = wwwl (3-1 Play on Texans)
Gb 125 Vs. Ari 130 = 5 Home Fav = lwlwwlwl (4-4 No Play)
Stl 116 Vs. Sea 131 = 15 Home Fav = wl (1-1 No Play)
Pit 130 Vs. Bal 116 = 14 Away Fav = lp (0-1-1 No Play)
Cin 128 Vs. Den 125 = 3 Away Fav = lllwwwl (3-4 No Play)

 

[JP-8]

Isn't NE the road fav? I see 8-4?

 

[justanobserver]

FYI there was also a play on Oak on Thursday

 

[justanobserver]

Isn't NE the road fav? I see 8-4?

Yep, fixed it, sorry.

 

[JP-8]

No prob thanks for laying it all out earlier.. Good luck everybody!

 

[justanobserver]

I would really like to know if historically these are stronger plays going for a fave (Hou and NE) or going against (Dal)

 

[Deadbeats]

Wouldn't Chi be a play? Home pick with a line of -3 is 0-3.