Week 15

[OverThinker]

2-1 last week on posted plays, I did play gb as well but wasn't around to post it so obviously won't count on record. Now 20-10 +1180 since beginning to post.


Titans +5 (2x).. gonna be brutally cold which is a little concerning to me only cause I'm not sure how titans handle those conditions. That said these kind of temps obviously favor the team who runs the ball more effectively and titans have the far superior rushing attack and a better run d which was before kc lost their best rush defending lb last week. Chiefs hang their hat on turnovers and red zone defense but titans one of most efficient red zone offenses in the league. This game should be a old school slugfest which makes the points extreamly valuable in a game the dog has the more physical and potent rushing attack.

Bears +6.5 (1.5x)..chi gets very little respect but they been covering machines the last month and a team I've grown really fond of betting on. Another game with freezing temps where the dog boast the superior rushing attack. Barkley a gamer, Alshon coming back off suspension, bears will once again put up a strong fight and be close at the end.

Jags +6 (1.5x).. Brock oswielwer laying 6? Guy is a scrub. Much like chi jags another team I like taking when I can get a fair amount of points. Bortles a freaking mess and will probably cost them the win but the defense is playing good enough and against a terrible offense should have no problem keeping it close..

will prob have few more later just wanted to post these as I played them..

 

[OverThinker]

Almost positive I'll be on Denver at some point just don't think any harm in waiting. Brady does not fair well in mile high and I'd expect more of the same here as those WRs will not be getting open on donks secondary.

 

[OverThinker]

Sf/atl ov 51 (1x).. this one sets up as a track meet. Couple terrible defenses and offenses that both play fast means lots of plays and lots of explosive plays in this one. Atl should have no problem hanging 35 on sf, niners should give us 20-24 which will have this flying over this number..

 

[KingEleven]

BOL this week OT

:toast:

 

[OverThinker]

BOL this week OT

:toast:

thank u sir, gl to you as well.. like your under play in Denver.

 

[fballgenius]

OT, Win or lose, your wagers are always well thought out. Best of luck to you.

 

[OverThinker]

OT, Win or lose, your wagers are always well thought out. Best of luck to you.

I actually enjoy capping them more than watching them these days I'm glad it shows. Appreciate the kind words, GL to you as well.

 

[OverThinker]

Den +3.5 -115 (1x).. been holding out waiting to catch the hook, I'm ok paying the extra 5 cents but will add another hundo later if the number gets better. Mile high been a house of horrors for Brady throughout his career and the list of den qbs that have beaten pats here has a number of guys that actually worse than semian who I think is decent and will have some success in this game. Never fun betting against Brady but the defending champs catching more than a fg at home while pats off a short week about as good a time as any! I just don't see pats wrs getting much separation on this secondary, sure pats outta be able to have success on the ground but is a strong run game really gonna put up enough points to win convincingly? Not only is it advantage donks with their secondary vs pats wrs but the same advantage exist with donks wrs vs the pats secondary, donks passing game will have success in this game. I expect den to score around 23-24 and just don't think pats gonna score 27+ on this defense. I actually like donks to pull the upset so perfectly happy getting more than a fg in what I think be a very competitive game. As I mentioned I like this for more than a 1u play just thinking there a good chance pats money continues to come in and push line higher, may even add ml depends what happens w line just wanted to make sure I got something down while the hook was available.

 

[OverThinker]

Phins-2.5 (1x).. I just can't wrap my head around all the jets love in this game. I don't think Moore is a downgrade so I made my number same as if tannenhill was starting, I have phins a td and extra point better on a nuetral so giving jets 3 for home field that would make fish-4 so imo value on Mia. Hyde just gashed what at one point was the strength of this nyj team their run defense. Ajayi had success the 1st meeting so if that the case again it is gonna open up the downfield passing game which plays to Moore's strengths, think he will hit jets suspect pass d for several big plays and Ajayi will control the rest. Phins get a lead and the d tees off on Petty who doesn't look much like a NFL qb to me (beating the miserable sf defense doesn't impress me). Give me the superior team that still playing for something basically just having to win..

 

[OverThinker]

1-0 to start week, for life of me I can't figure out wtf all these guys saw in the jets? I'm wrong plenty it happens to us all and that's fine I don't even mind being wrong as long as I feel good about my reasoning behind a play I can always live w the results. Far as this one goes I tried and tried find a case to be made for jets and I couldn't do it or find anyone backing them who had a compelling argument.

 

[OverThinker]

Extreamly tempting for me to try and middle the jags game but I hate doing that and honestly I made this a fg game so think I'm just content being on jags at the good number. Kinda surprised them and bears have taken on so much money to move these lines that much but I guess some deep pockets agree with me that those were inflated. unfortunately doesn't make a damn bit of difference in the outcome, if anything worries me a little as I feel like these moves havnt faired all that well this season. Obviously I prefer to get best of a number and appears I've done so on at least 4 of my 5 wagers (titans has curiously went up?), hopefully it works out.

Might have one more play on the night game, kinda holding out hope Tampa gets bet down under 7 and I may actually lay with boys, I'm slightly allergic to laying a td or more ever so gonna need 6.5 to do so. Somewhat interested in total as well. I'll be back later if I add anything. GL EVERYONE!!

 

[predman]

2-1 last week on posted plays, I did play gb as well but wasn't around to post it so obviously won't count on record. Now 20-10 +1180 since beginning to post.


Titans +5 (2x).. gonna be brutally cold which is a little concerning to me only cause I'm not sure how titans handle those conditions. That said these kind of temps obviously favor the team who runs the ball more effectively and titans have the far superior rushing attack and a better run d which was before kc lost their best rush defending lb last week. Chiefs hang their hat on turnovers and red zone defense but titans one of most efficient red zone offenses in the league. This game should be a old school slugfest which makes the points extreamly valuable in a game the dog has the more physical and potent rushing attack.

Bears +6.5 (1.5x)..chi gets very little respect but they been covering machines the last month and a team I've grown really fond of betting on. Another game with freezing temps where the dog boast the superior rushing attack. Barkley a gamer, Alshon coming back off suspension, bears will once again put up a strong fight and be close at the end.

Jags +6 (1.5x).. Brock oswielwer laying 6? Guy is a scrub. Much like chi jags another team I like taking when I can get a fair amount of points. Bortles a freaking mess and will probably cost them the win but the defense is playing good enough and against a terrible offense should have no problem keeping it close..

will prob have few more later just wanted to post these as I played them..

Love all these, on em and Im on Hou. ML.. damn cant believe I said that , but going with that Texans team to win, not sure they cover spread tho.

Love my Broncos today, gonna be a great game, we give Brady fits, but he's never out... damn him

BOL today.

 

[OverThinker]

Love all these, on em and Im on Hou. ML.. damn cant believe I said that , but going with that Texans team to win, not sure they cover spread tho.

Love my Broncos today, gonna be a great game, we give Brady fits, but he's never out... damn him

BOL today.

I'm really thinking I should put hou ml in a parlay w someone and take advantage of the price I got on jags earlier in week but I just can't bring myself to do it, I actually think jags have a decent shot at winning although I'm sure bortles will throw a pick 6 or something to kill their chances.

I really like the donks today as well, glad I got a hundo down on the +3.5 -115 but was really hoping to get another one down at a better price, still considering the ml as well. Pretty much a no brainer getting that defense as home dogs. Worked twice vs pats last year, opening day vs panthers this season, when these rare opportunities present themselves you gotta take them imo. GL to you as well

 

[OverThinker]

So full card thus far

titans +5 (2x) . Didn't get best of this line, surprised it went up.
Jags+6 (1.5x)
bears+6.5 (1.5x)
sf/atl over 51 (1x)
donks +3.5 -115 (1x)

fish-2.5 (1x) already a winner

as i mentioned still waiting on late game to see where line goes. Would still like to get a little more down on broncos in some fashion or another. Always a chance I play a halftime if opportunity presents itself. Will post anything I add.

 

[OverThinker]

Stackin and cashing!

 

[sunshine11]

​$$$$$ well done

 

[OverThinker]

Cowboys-6.5 (1x).. I tend to be allerrgic to laying many points but been waiting to get this one under a td all week. IMO the line being this high is telling against a red hot bucs team everyone is falling in love with.. I think this a bounce back game for the Dallas offense and all the talk of them hitting a wall being greatly exaggerated. Fact is they went on the road and played a couple very good defenses, no team just rolls all season without any speed bumps. Tampa been playing great but let's face it the defensive front which has been their strength has seen a offensive line like this yet. Boys big uglies neutralize bucs front 7 and dak picks on a secondary that you can make plays on. I'm a big jamis fan and think they did right thing drafting him over marriota, that said bucs offense hasn't been great and Winston still prone to mistakes, I expect he makes them when forced to put up enough points to stay with the boys. I think it a competitive game but once dal pulls ahead they will stay there. 31-20 boys..

 

[OverThinker]

Sf/atl ov 51 (1x).. this one sets up as a track meet. Couple terrible defenses and offenses that both play fast means lots of plays and lots of explosive plays in this one. Atl should have no problem hanging 35 on sf, niners should give us 20-24 which will have this flying over this number..

Push at worst, pretty confident we get another score, probably 2 or 3! The good times keep rolling! If only the donks could freaking score, really want the sweep!!!!

 

[OverThinker]

My fat mouth bout jinxed the atl over into a push, lol. Needed atl to do little more than I thought, expected niners to be able to get us 20. Oh well, wins a win. Still perfect on the week although looks like we gonna drop the Denver game. Still looking at 5-1 clearing almost 6 hundo with Dallas pending and a likely play on the Monday night total.

 

[OverThinker]

So full card thus far

titans +5 (2x) . Didn't get best of this line, surprised it went up.
Jags+6 (1.5x)
bears+6.5 (1.5x)
sf/atl over 51 (1x)
donks +3.5 -115 (1x)

fish-2.5 (1x) already a winner

as i mentioned still waiting on late game to see where line goes. Would still like to get a little more down on broncos in some fashion or another. Always a chance I play a halftime if opportunity presents itself. Will post anything I add.

well that's that. 5-1 +585 with cowboys pending tonight. 25-11 +1765 since beginning to post