Week 15 war room help me out on tuesday and Wednesday to find my plays of the week

[uscmd]

Ace, I'll add more thoughts tomorrow, as I finish number crunching.
I think Itchy may be right, totals might be more predictable, 'in the years NFL."

Its no secret, for 6-8 weeks I've been trying to figure out why sides in the nfl hve become SO MUCH LESS PREDICTABLE. It seems to me, more games used to end like the rams and seahawk games of this week. I did an AI search, since start of 2024, 80% of the nfl games are 1 score

Parity and sharper lines make us vulnerable to bad calls, tipped/int passes and fumbles. It seems like the nfl would prefer every game go to OT.

Ace I can't blame you for soul searching after the brutal way you lost in wk 14. Personally, that would have probably led to me taking a few weeks off. No matter what you decide to do, please give some thought, to why betting sides seems to have increased in difficulty.

Ace, I've read your thoughts, used them since 2004, when we both joined the RX. I think, you might be a little shell shocked, but I believe you have everything you need to turn this around, inside your world of experience. You are the man!

Best of luck, my friend.

 

[ripper]

MYLINE. Is about t/o….time….penaLy…….lineoff the different between the line and what happens


both Have made me win more than losing

last 3 year as the game change. Not as good in profit. Win…..up small….this year you know

411 in the early 2005. Hit 63. Over the last 20 year 56% life time.

Ace, I remember your hot streaks very well back when I was a regular poster. Your numbers I'm sure are solid. It's forever going to be a part of the equation. How much of this factor should apply is the question? There are too many variables that change from team to team, week to week, injuries, schedules and scripts. NFL has got this game dialed into a science,,,enough to take away most bettors advantages.
I've been reading allot of good discussions from some of the sharp players lately, and totally get their frustrations.
I totally respect anyone that is willing to share their methods and reasons. That's what the forum should be about.
Best of wishes in getting your season turned around!

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace, I remember your hot streaks very well back when I was a regular poster. Your numbers I'm sure are solid. It's forever going to be a part of the equation. How much of this factor should apply is the question? There are too many variables that change from team to team, week to week, injuries, schedules and scripts. NFL has got this game dialed into a science,,,enough to take away most bettors advantages.
I've been reading allot of good discussions from some of the sharp players lately, and totally get their frustrations.
I totally respect anyone that is willing to share their methods and reasons. That's what the forum should be about.
Best of wishes in getting your season turned around!

You see the number….you see all the in’s and out’s….where there record is…..a big one for me is the head coach has a life time winning record….big in the 411 system……you still have to put it all together if it was just the numbers everyone would win.

thanks. Good to see someone back when therx rock

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace, I'll add more thoughts tomorrow, as I finish number crunching.
I think Itchy may be right, totals might be more predictable, 'in the years NFL."

Its no secret, for 6-8 weeks I've been trying to figure out why sides in the nfl hve become SO MUCH LESS PREDICTABLE. It seems to me, more games used to end like the rams and seahawk games of this week. I did an AI search, since start of 2024, 80% of the nfl games are 1 score

Parity and sharper lines make us vulnerable to bad calls, tipped/int passes and fumbles. It seems like the nfl would prefer every game go to OT.

Ace I can't blame you for soul searching after the brutal way you lost in wk 14. Personally, that would have probably led to me taking a few weeks off. No matter what you decide to do, please give some thought, to why betting sides seems to have increased in difficulty.

Ace, I've read your thoughts, used them since 2004, when we both joined the RX. I think, you might be a little shell shocked, but I believe you have everything you need to turn this around, inside your world of experience. You are the man!

Best of luck, my friend.

I got a plan this week plus I’m doing something i have never done in all the year I bet. Stay tune

thanks for the kind words

A

 

[comptonla]

Action………………………4-7…………………..-2759.00
Investment……………….29-37………………-20,059.00
Total …………………..…..33-44……………….-22,818.00

alway make my pick by Wednesday so in the next two day I would like the power of this forum to help pick a game or total that worth my two unit play (2000)

tell me why

I have got it down to 5 games….my hope is there a match or something more to think about.


with only 8 weeks to go 2852.00 is what I need a week…..but the next 3 weeks is key


Ace

Ace: I can't be much help on the NFL side of things as my cup of tea is College Football and Basketball. My One NFL Play I played just TODAY was the Pittsburgh Steelers - 3 against the Dolphins on Monday Night. BITTER Cold and possibly Snow in Pittsburgh. Tough for QB Tua.


Some Added Advice: Stay far and Clear away from any Advise from Xeno/Bee Free

Here would be some of his Bets that will have your Head Spinning!

Team A vs Team B Take Team A + 6 ( Will mention I get Reduced Juice )

Teaser Team A + Team B

Teaser Team B + Team C

Forget that Wager A + B ( Cancel )

Team B ---" Little Kick Back "

Team C + Team A " Try a Middle "

Team C Make it a 5 *

Team A " Little Hedge "

Team C " Too Much-Make it Now a 3 *

Team A vs Team B 2nd Half 2 *

Team B LIVE 3*

Team D 1st Half - 1 ( My Eyes are Dimming )


And So and So and So On for 12 Hours Straight Every Saturday and Sunday
Crazy Talk

 

[itchyback]

My philosophy is for a deal to be good
Both buyer and seller agree on price
Ne money line better value to bet
Why pay -115 juice

 

[ACE-ACE]

I hope you saw the prop I dropped last night….

Denver is the trend this week! undefeated at home…. Not many if any NFL teams go perfect at home, it’s rare. Packers money line

I did see it ……thinking about that game

A

 

[itchy_pickle]

I hope you saw the prop I dropped last night….

Denver is the trend this week! undefeated at home…. Not many if any NFL teams go perfect at home, it’s rare. Packers money line

Its happened 26 times the last 22 years. Not rare at all. I wouldn't use that stand-alone reason to make a bet.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Its happened 26 times the last 22 years. Not rare at all. I wouldn't use that stand-alone reason to make a bet.

Love Denver in this game

 

[itchy_pickle]

@ACE-ACE Let the numbers do the talking. Don't tell me you didn't look twice at that line of GB -2½ at Denver.

 

[Mofome2]

I hope you saw the prop I dropped last night….

Denver is the trend this week! undefeated at home…. Not many if any NFL teams go perfect at home, it’s rare. Packers money line

2003 and 2007?

 

[itchy_pickle]

@Mofome2 a lot more than those 2 years

 

[itchy_pickle]

@Mofome2 We can start with Buffalo and Kansas City last season.

 

[brendanjack]

Balt -2.5 ace like this play think Lamar goes old school and laces up his sneakers and runs the rubber off the track

 

[orangethimble]

I got a plan this week plus I’m doing something i have never done in all the year I bet. Stay tune

thanks for the kind words

A

Why not try 4 teasers to win $500 each for that last $2,000 bucket.... Goal to go 3-1 on those?

Hope you turn and burn these last couple weeks and into playoffs. Thanks again for sharing the fast start numbers earlier this year.

 

[itchy_pickle]

Your system close to the total system I did. Finding the mistake …..but I had fewer games need 10 point different

good job keep it up . Do you have a lifetime record on your total system ?

Don't need 10 points with totals. A whole different ballgame than sides. You'll rarely see that much of a point defferential, maybe once a year.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Never bet a moneyline parlay. Little help. 5 team with odds -355 -105 +180 -395 +114. If i bet 100 I would get 1779!!

is this the standard at all books. Or if there another sport book that has better odds


just thinking out load. I know it’s a sucker play

 

[skoda]

Its happened 26 times the last 22 years. Not rare at all. I wouldn't use that stand-alone reason to make a bet.

couldn't find list? from memory didn't think it happened as often..... seeing Denver Home record is, guessing this is past 20 year....searched for unbeaten season at home and or road, no luck….

239-108-0

may be useful link?

NFL Win-Loss Records In Home Games (All Results) | BetIQ

What is every NFL team's straight up win-loss record at home ?

betiq.teamrankings.com

Pack, BOL

 

[ACE-ACE]

Never bet a moneyline parlay. Little help. 5 team with odds -355 -105 +180 -395 +114. If i bet 100 I would get 1779!!

is this the standard at all books. Or if there another sport book that has better odds


just thinking out load. I know it’s a sucker play

Got my guy in Las Vegas to place it for 400. Thinking to win 7116
he let me know

thanks to everyone for help we all learn something when we put our heads together

Lock and load

Ace

 

[uscmd]

No surprise, teams with highest home winning percentage.....mostly all in North, play in snow globes, where theres a true home field edge. Minnesota went dome recently.

........................................................................................................W.%....................margin.........line off avg.

Green Bay	238-107-3	69.0%	6.3	+1.7
Denver	239-108-0	68.9%	5.7	+1.0
Pittsburgh	235-112-2	67.7%	5.4	+1.3
New England	240-116-0	67.4%	6.1	+1.5
Baltimore	168-83-1	66.9%	6.8	+2.4
Kansas City	231-117-0	66.4%	5.2	+1.5
Minnesota	220-118-0	65.1%	4.8	+1.2