week 15 plays

[bmore]

Hey guys. I dont post often but now is the time i usually get hot. Figured i would try to contribute to the forum. Play or fade but GL to all and dont bet over your head!!

Rams - 4 - Hottest defense in the league playing at home on a short week against an offense that has been down right terrible lately. I dont see AZ doing much here and the rams should score enough to get the home win and cover 19 -13 Rams


ATL + 3 - bought a half here. ATL should light up that terrible secondary of Pitt. Pitt always plays down to the level of their competition and ATL defense should do just barely enough to get the win here in most likely the most entertaining game of the card. ATL 37 Pitt 34


Minny + 7.5 - upset alert here! I think Minny wins SU as the Lions do what they normally do and blow a perfectly great opportunity to make the playoffs. THis game goes down to the wire either way as Minny is playing much better ball lately and that defense has really taken off late in the year under Zimmer. Minny 23 Det 21


Dallas + 3.5 - This game should be lopsided. I see an easy Cowboys win here. The QB's will make the difference as that is a HUGE edge to Dallas regardless of how much you read the media talking heads saying Romo always chokes. That couldnt be further from the truth. Now Dallas will probably blow at least one of the last two games and miss the playoffs at 11-5 but they get this one on sunday night and it shouldnt be close at all. Dallas 38 Philly 23


Might add a few throughout the week (looking really hard at SD and SF). GL to all

 

[Greenbacks]

I like the Rams....Don`t like the Cowboys.

Good luck with the rest.

 

[TomandJerry]

Like the Rams only

 

[bmore]

Thanks for the feedback guys


adding SD +4.5 - was able to grab the hook so I locked it in. I expect a SD SU win but will gladly take the 4.5 in what should be a tight game. SD is desperate and should score enough to keep up with a struggling Peyton

 

[palehose1]

I have ATL/Pitt as a strong over play see my trends post on Dallas,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Pokes are December fades every year Chargers I agree on Minny on the road after O.T home win letting Jets score at will is scary IMO GL

 

[bmore]

I have ATL/Pitt as a strong over play see my trends post on Dallas,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Pokes are December fades every year Chargers I agree on Minny on the road after O.T home win letting Jets score at will is scary IMO GL

Thanks for the feedback. Yes you and every talking head in America says the same thing about Dallas in decemeber, trends are almost meaningless to me, name me the Dallas team in the last 20 years that had the great running game and Oline like they do now, that's a pretty big difference in december cold games. ITs funny because everywhere i look people are saying Romo chokes in December, Romo sucks in big games etc. No one mentions that Romo is the MUCH better QB in this matchup. I'll take my chances with a 6-0 road team, with the better QB, catching 3 with the hook in a game i think they win SU very easlily.

 

[justanobserver]

Thanks for the feedback. Yes you and every talking head in America says the same thing about Dallas in decemeber, trends are almost meaningless to me, name me the Dallas team in the last 20 years that had the great running game and Oline like they do now, that's a pretty big difference in december cold games. ITs funny because everywhere i look people are saying Romo chokes in December, Romo sucks in big games etc. No one mentions that Romo is the MUCH better QB in this matchup. I'll take my chances with a 6-0 road team, with the better QB, catching 3 with the hook in a game i think they win SU very easlily.

What has changed since this same team beat Dallas 33-10 two weeks ago? Philly's dline demolished the Dallas oline and Romo couldn't do anything. Not to mention that was a Dallas showcase game in Dallas on Thanksgiving. I don't think Dallas' d has the speed to keep up with Philly at all.

 

[bmore]

What has changed since this same team beat Dallas 33-10 two weeks ago? Philly's dline demolished the Dallas oline and Romo couldn't do anything. Not to mention that was a Dallas showcase game in Dallas on Thanksgiving. I don't think Dallas' d has the speed to keep up with Philly at all.

Well alot frankly. Dallas had the shorest turnaround in NFL history the last time they played, playing a sunday night road game and then playing a thursday day game. Dallas didnt get back home from NYC until 4 am and regardless if you view this as an excuse or not, its the facts. Romo on short rest with his back is a disaster. Playing Philly on a short week is always a disadvantage with there tempo. Philly had a quasi bye week facing the Titans and Dallas played a division rival on the road.

Dallas sucks at home. They are 6-0 on the road. If you think Philly dline will "demolish" the dallas oline again then we will just agree to disagree on that one. Expect a much better performance for the best Oline in the NFL. The first game Dallas ran into a buzz saw. If you think this game will play out the same you havent paid attention to NFL football this year or any year for that matter. I love the fact that Dallas got blown out the first game, only makes me like them more here. Dallas typically wins when most think they wont and lose when most think they will win.

Bottom line is you have the best road team in the NFL (6-0 and they beat the crap out of the super bowl champion Seahawks on the road even if the final score didnt indicate that they truly did dominate them) with the MUCH better QB and im getting 3.5 points. This is a situation i would bet every time and win lose or draw. Your betting on Mark Sanchez to win by 4 against a quality NFL team.....good luck with that sir

 

[bmore]

Forgot to mention Dallas had 10 days to prepare while Philly was playing the most physical team in the NFL on sunday. Fun fact, the last 7 teams to play Seattle all lost their next game. Playing Seattle takes alot out of you especially this time of year when every team is beaten up from the long year.

So you have a rested confident Dallas team (they got their confidence back by avenging last seasons ass kicking by chicago by kicking chicagos ass thursday night) going up against a team and offense that had to lose some confidence after the ass kicking Seattle put on Philly last week

Philly gained 139 yards on offense!! If Seattle's punter doesnt drop a punt Philly would have scored 7 points!! The only way i see Philly winning this game is if they get a lucky special teams or defensive TD, you know like the outragious 10 TD's they have scored this year on defense and special teams which is unheard of in the NFL. There luck runs out sunday night and they will be exposed as the average team they really are.

Oh and Philly's QB is Mark Freaking Sanchez!!!!! I predict around 9:30 -10:00 there will be multiple threads on this forum saying "I hate Sanchez" and "I will never bet a Mark Sanchez led team again"....it should be entertaining to say the least!!

 

[justanobserver]

I guess we just agree to disagree, BOL with your action.

 

[bmore]

What has changed since this same team beat Dallas 33-10 two weeks ago? Philly's dline demolished the Dallas oline and Romo couldn't do anything. Not to mention that was a Dallas showcase game in Dallas on Thanksgiving. I don't think Dallas' d has the speed to keep up with Philly at all.

One last thought, and dont take this the wrong way i am truly trying to help you, ive been doing this for 20 years now.

The line of thinking above is the reason why the books win money every year on NFL betting. The linesmakers saw the game on Thanksgiving, they know Dallas got killed and Philly looked dominate against them.

So ask yourself, why is Philly only 3.5 favorites against a team they smashed 33-10 on the road just two weeks ago? There is no injuries that would tilt the line in Dallas' favor. In fact, Philly has gotten healthier since then and is the heathiest Philly has been all year.

I mean according to "logic" Philly should be at least 7 point favs here right? If the home team gets 3 points, the linesmakers are saying philly and dallas are 2 even teams but how can that be when Philly beat them by 23 on the road....wink wink! GL on the rest of your action

 

[3pointdog]

One last thought, and dont take this the wrong way i am truly trying to help you, ive been doing this for 20 years now.

The line of thinking above is the reason why the books win money every year on NFL betting. The linesmakers saw the game on Thanksgiving, they know Dallas got killed and Philly looked dominate against them.

So ask yourself, why is Philly only 3.5 favorites against a team they smashed 33-10 on the road just two weeks ago? There is no injuries that would tilt the line in Dallas' favor. In fact, Philly has gotten healthier since then and is the heathiest Philly has been all year.

I mean according to "logic" Philly should be at least 7 point favs here right? If the home team gets 3 points, the linesmakers are saying philly and dallas are 2 even teams but how can that be when Philly beat them by 23 on the road....wink wink! GL on the rest of your action

agreed my friend... I like minny & chargers as well but I like pitt too..GL