week#15 picks

[i'mshockedshocked]

last week I went 3-5 to drop my YTD record to 39-40..hugging .500 as always. Should think twice about my late picks which dont do as well as the early ones. and have more faith in my system which wins alot more than my subjective calls. anyway, onto week #15:

1.) SEAT(-13.5)-120 vs Clev. I am taking both 2 TD fav teams this week playing worst tms in NFL at home. This time of year

2.) NE(-13.5) -120 vs Tenn

3.) NO(-3) Det. NO at home and Det coach on way out

4.) NYJ(-3) vs Dall Motivational edge to NYJ...and their D vs mistake prone Cassell.

5.) MINN(-5) Chic. Minny sure surpirsed me with their effort last week vs Ariz., just as Chic surprised w loss to Skins. Will go with momentum tm here.

 

[indiana]

S/S.........good looking card...........BOL with your week end action..........indy

 

[i'mshockedshocked]

have lots of plays this week. adding:

6.) Cinn(-4.5) SF If Cinn is truly one of the best teams in the NFL, then this line, even without Dalton, makes no sense. Should be at least a TD. I know SF has been tough at home, but still.

7.) DEN(+7) -120 vs Pitt. I just dont feel a team w the defense Denver has should be getting a TD from anybody. Wouldnt be surprised if Denver wins outright.

8.) OAK(+3.5) vs GB I think Oakland wins this outright. I mean if they can beat DEN at DEN and come within 3 of PITT at PITT, they can beat GB at home. This is my strongest play. Helps that 74% of public is on GB.

9.) PHIL(+3.5) vs Ariz. 71% of public on Ariz. Ari has GB and Seat upcoming. Last week was tough fight vs Minn. This is a sandwich game for Ariz while it is life and death for Philly. If there is such a thing as needing to conserve a team's full effort for games that matter, then this is a perfect spot to fade Arizona.


Looking forward to the Indy Hous line...leaning heavily towards House unless they are favored by more than 3

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Colts came out -1

 

[i'mshockedshocked]

Thanks for heads up on Hous line coming out, Comptuer Group.

ADDING ( my strongest play of the week):

10.) HOUS(+1) vs Indy

 

[i'mshockedshocked]

need to cancel two bets cause my system says to go the opposite way:

3.) NO(-3) vs Det cancelled by taking Det(+3). Subtle RLM...feels like line is headed to -2.5 which would mean heavy sharp money on Det despite huge sentiment on NO

4.) NYJ(-3) canceled by taking Dall(+3). Fact that Dallas has had a much stronger schedule than NYJ factored into system play on Dall. I am not taking a side in either of these two games...just cancelling the plays.

that leaves me with 8 plays for week #15