Week 15 and more

[russ1945]

average			ats	ats
ranking	team		won	loss
9	wisconsin	5	7
10.5	mich st		8	4
12	alabama		4	8
12	marshall	7	4
14	miss state	7	5
14.5	tcu		9	2
16.5	georgia		7	5
17	ohio st		7	5
17.5	memphis		7	4
18	oregon		8	4
19	kansas st	8	3
20	baylor		6	4
22.5	georgia so	8	4
23	oklahoma	5	6
28	florida st	3	9
28.5	ole miss		7	4
29	colorado st	8	4
29	georgia tech	8	4
29.5	u.s.c.		7	5
30	arkansas	9	3
30	louisville	7	5
31.5	duke		8	4
32	la tech		9	3
32	nebraska	7	5
32.5	e carolina	5	6
			174	117	60%

 

[russ1945]

I listed above the top 25 teams in my average rankings. For those not familiar with them I take each teams offensive ranking and their defensive ranking and divide them by 2 to get the average ranking. I also track each teams avg point differential as well. These are an intricate part of my bowl strategy which averaged over 60 percent except for last bowl season. The overall winning percentage based on using my system is still above average and this year I am working earlier than ever on bowl matchups. You may have noticed I track the bowl projections on philsteele.com and I am sure there will be lots of changes again following week 14. You can see where the 60% begins as that is the average ATS percentage for my top 25 teams in the average rankings. It all start there but every year I try to improve on the system and I feel very good about the upcoming bowl season.

 

[russ1945]

I use several variables but one I use helps put these average rankings into a little better perspective and that would be toughness of schedule. For that ranking I use the NCAA Football Statistics although there are some other sources that rank toughness of schedule. Here is the list with the toughness of schedule ranking added in.

						TOUGHEST
AVERAGE			ATS	ATS		SCHEDULE
RANKING	TEAM		WON	LOSS		RANKING
9	WISCONSIN	5	7		55
10.5	MICH ST		8	4		61
12	ALABAMA		4	8		25
12	MARSHALL	7	4		106
14	MISS STATE	7	5		44
14.5	TCU		9	2		53
16.5	GEORGIA		7	5		43
17	OHIO ST		7	5		37
17.5	MEMPHIS		7	4		107
18	OREGON		8	4		40
19	KANSAS ST	8	3		57
20	BAYLOR		6	4		103
22.5	GEORGIA SO	8	4		112
23	OKLAHOMA	5	6		54
28	FLORIDA ST	3	9		59
28.5	OLE MISS		7	4		3
29	COLORADO ST	8	4		99
29	GEORGIA TECH	8	4		22
29.5	U.S.C.		7	5		52
30	ARKANSAS	9	3		1
30	LOUISVILLE	7	5		71
31.5	DUKE		8	4		119
32	LA TECH		9	3		64
32	NEBRASKA	7	5		60
32.5	E CAROLINA	5	6		127
			174	117	60%

 

[russ1945]

Here are the teams that most improved in their average ranking in 2014 over 2013 and by how much:

W. Michigan +76.5, Memphis +59.5, Air Force +57, La Tech +54, Cal + 42.5 – combined these teams have an ATS record of 40-19 (68%).

Teams that had their average ranking fall the farthest in 2014 over 2013 and by how much:

Vanderbilt -59.5, B Green -58.5, N Texas -52.5, Tulane -47.5 and S. Carolina -41.5. Combined these teams have an ATS record of 22-36 (38%).

Here are some other teams that improved their pt diff in 2014 vs 2013 and by how much: W. Michigan +29 ppg (from -18.2 ppg to +10.8 ppg) and their ATS record is 10-2, F.I.U +25.4 ppg (from -27.2 ppg to -1.8 ppg) and their ATS record is 8-4, TCU +24.4 ppg, Arkansas +21.8 ppg, and Memphis +22.7 ppg). Combined these teams have an ATS record of 43-15 (75%).

These teams had big drops in their pt diff in 2014 over 2013: Florida St -26.9, Oklahoma St -22.7, and SMU -27.2 (combined their ATS record is 9-24 (28%).

 

[russ1945]

Here is some stats on the Baylor/Kansas St game this weekend. Here are some stats keeping in mind the status of Baylor QB Bryce Petty.

Scoring Offense: Baylor #1 – 49.8 ppg Kansas St #21 – 36.6 ppg

Scoring Defense: Kansas St #17 – 20.3 ppg Baylor #39 – 23.9 ppg

On my average rankings – Kansas St 19, Baylor 20 Kansas St improved their average ranking from 2013 by +15 and Baylor by -1.5

Avg pt differential – Baylor +25.9 ppg Kansas St +16.3 ppg

Toughness of schedule – Kansas St #57 Baylor #103

Recent Scores: 2011 - Kansas St won 36-35 2012 – Baylor won 52-24 2013 – Baylor won 35-25

Total Offense – Baylor + 153 ypg

Total Defense – Kansas St +23.5 ypg

Kansas St has the edge in both Red Zone Offense and Red Zone Defense

Baylor has the edge in net punting avg

 

[CoachCB]

Some of the stats put up this year have been crazy and just unbelievable.

3 RBs in the B10 over 2,000 yards.

Bama 672 yards vs. Florida - the most yards EVER given up by UF in the history of the program.

Highest Iron Bowl score ever.

Marshall/W. Kentucky score.

Texas Tech QB shatters freshman passing record (and has 4th highest total in school history) - after replacing the injured starter mid-season (598 yards).

SEC w/ 12 bowl eligible teams.

UGA's two stud RBs.

 

[russ1945]

Getting more quality QB's and that opens up the running game for the spread big time. The spread rules and it puts the spotlight on quality play makers. Saturday night you could see what I have been saying about Sabin. He keeps the wraps on Kiffin. When he turns him loose, like he did in the second half, Bama dominates a game. Sabin over coaches and he needs to change with the times and let his OC do his thing. It puts the pressure on opposing DC's because Bama has quality play makers when turned loose.

 

[russ1945]

Here is the philssteele.com bowl prediction projection changes from 11-24 to 11-30. Getting very close to finalizing many of these:

New Orleans Bowl changed from S.D. State vs UL Lafayette to Air Force vs UL Lafayette

The Las Vegas Bowl changed from Boise St vs Stanford to Colorado St vs Stanford

Idaho Potato Bowl changed from B Green vs Nevada to Toledo vs Nevada

Boca Raton Bowl changed from UAB vs W Michigan to WKU vs W Michigan

Poinsettia Bowl changed from Colorado St vs Navy to S.D. State vs Navy

Hawaii Bowl changed from Mid Tenn St vs Air Force to Rice vs Fresno St

Heart of Dallas Bowl changed from Rutgers vs Rice to Florida vs Marshall

Quick Lane Bowl changed from B College vs NW to Vir Tech vs Illinois

St Petersburg Bowl changed from UCF vs N Carolina to UCF vs Miami

Sun Bowl changed from Miami Fl vs Utah to N Dame vs Utah

Independence Bowl changed from Vir Tech vs Florida to N. Carolina vs S. Carolina

Pinstripe Bowl changed from Louisville vs Penn St to B College vs Penn St

Liberty Bowl changed from W Vir bs Arkansas to W Vir vs LSU

Russell Athletic Bowl changed from Clemson vs Kansas St to Clemson vs Oklahoma

Music City Bowl changed from N Dame vs Tenn to Louisville vs Auburn

Belk Bowl changed from Duke vs LSU to Duke vs Tenn

Foster Farms Bowl changed from Maryland vs USC to Rutgers vs USC

Peach Bowl changed from Marshall vs Georgia to Mich State vs Miss State

Fiesta Bowl changed from Arizona vs Mich State to Arizona vs Boise St

Orange Bowl changed from Geo Tech vs Miss St to Geo Tech vs Wisconsin

Citrus Bowl changed from Wisc vs Ole Miss to Minn vs Mizzou

Outback Bowl changed from Minn vs Mizzou to Maryland vs Georgia

Cotton Bowl changed from TCU vs Ohio St to Baylor vs Ohio St

Sugar Bowl (playoff) changed from Alabama vs Baylor to Alabama vs TCU

Armed Forces Bowl changed from Cal vs Houston to Texas St vs Houston

Taxslayer Bowl changed from Iowa vs Auburn to Iowa vs Ole Miss

Alamo Bowl changed from Oklahoma vs UCLA to Kansas St vs UCLA

Cactus Bowl changed from Fresno St vs Washington to Pitt vs Washington

Birmingham Bowl changed from Memphis vs S Carolina to Memphis vs Arkansas

They still have Alabama vs Florida St playing for the National Championship

So they changed 29 bowl matchups and kept only 10 the same based on last week’s play. Really

They had Baylor in the final 4 playoffs and replaced them with TCU making it Alabama, Florida St, Oregon and TCU