Week 14 / Writeups

[Michelangelo]

The record:

Wk 1 // 2-7
Wk 2 // 4-3-1
Wk 3 // 6-3
Wk 4 // 6-2
Wk 5 // 2-4-1
Wk 6 // 4-5
Wk 7 // 4-3
Wk 8 // 7-2
WK 9 // 6-5
Wk 10 // 2-8
WK 11 // 4-7
WK 12 // 4-2-1
Wk 13 // 6-8

Today:

Cin +14 (@ Ind)
Chi -7 (vs Jax)
Min -10' (@ Det)
NYG -7' (vs Phi)
NYJ -4' (@ SFo)
KCy +9 (@ Den)
Sea +7 (vs NEn)

Late game later.

Cin +14 (@ Ind)
After playing the two best defenses and special teams in the NFL (Bal; Pit) the Indy defense will be like an underwater air pocket for these underwater Bengals.

Chi -7 (vs Jax)
Bears at home in the cold after three on the road against a Florida team, and a not very good one at that. Romp.

Minny -10' (@ Det)
Minny only beat Detroit 12-10 at home. It was the closest the Lions have come to a win all year. But Minny was 2-3 SU going into that game. They are 4-1 SU in their last 5 and are in Playoff stride. Home dogs are gettin' killed this year. 0-18 SU and 3-15 ATS in their last 18. Blowout on both sides of the ball.

NYG -7' (vs Phi)
Over the past nine years when Philly goes to New York the team with the better end of season record is 8-1 both SU and ATS. That will clearly be the Gmen.

NYJ -4' (@ SFo)
Jets should be nasty after getting embarassed last week when the consecutive wins over New England and Tennessee were fresh in their heads. Remember what I told ya above about the home dogs this year.

KCy +9 (@ Den)
The Chiefs can run. Denver can't stop the run. I'll take the generous points given to a team who is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in the Division, including a 33-19 win earlier in the year over these same phony Broncos.

Sea +7 (vs NEn)
I told ya'll at the beginning of the year how this Pat defense was gonna take a big step down losing their best edge rusher, Colvin, and their best run stopping linebacker, Seau, and their best corner, Samuel. They went and got two of those guys back this week (Colvin and Seau) but I don't think they'll be game ready today. Expect Hasslebeck to hit stride today against a poor Pats pass rush and an equally poor Pats secondary. AFC East teams are only 1-4 both SU and ATS when traveling West this year while the rest of the NFL is 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS when going East to West.

Back later with the night game.

Good luck.

 

[Michelangelo]

Just found out I may not be here for the start of tonight's game. So I'm adding it now.

Baltimore -6 (vs Was)

Going against the Taxi Trend here (play against any team who scores 30 plus while giving up 10 or less in their previous two games) 'cause I think the dynamic changes for "spotlight" games.

Don't be fooled by the Skins 4-0 SU road run. They are again in the "spotlight" tonight where they are 0-3 both SU and ATS this year. They are going against the best defense/special teams combo in the NFL. Yes better than Pittsburgh. The Ravens have given up 5 touchdowns in 5 home games. I won't be surprised if this anemic Redskin offense gets shutout tonight. Six isn't many points to give when the opposition can't score more than one TD in a game.

Good luck.

 

[cruisin]

Mitch, don't know if it matters, but Hasslebeck is out today. GL with your plays.:toast:

 

[manchild]

Always look forward to looking and your picks! You don't look for the attention,you make your plays and thats it I like it!

 

[Michelangelo]

Thanks cruisin. I'll take my chances with Seneca Wallace in this spot.

Manchild, Not a great record this year. Sorry if you've been following. But I do my homework and research and give it my best shot. Best of luck to you.

 

[Michelangelo]

Add:

Tampa Bay +3 +115 (@ Car)

They do not want to let this game off of 3. Far as I can tell only Matchbook is now offering 3'. That of course is a much more preferable line. So I'm personally gonna wait 'till I see the 3' come up. If it doesn't I'll settle for the plus odds 3.

Tampa used the formula in the first game that puts Carolina in an unlikely to win position - shut down the run and force Delhomme to throw.

In the first game Tampa got Carolina down 14-0 on a blocked punt return and a short passing TD. That set them up right where they wanted to be.
In that game they limited Carolina to 40 yards on the ground and forced Delhomme to put it up. He did, throwing 3 picks. Game. Set. Match. Tampa 27-3.

I doubt it will be as easy to implement that formula tonight. But according to my Defense/Special Teams rankings, Tampa is #3 in all of the NFL with Carolina checking in at a pedantic #16. This will be a hardhitting game in the National spotlight and I'm expecting defense and special teams to make the difference.

I'll take my shot with the Bucs on that basis.

Good luck.