Jacksonville owns Houston (as crazy as it sounds, but it is true). Last year Jacksonville had 3 wins and 2 of those 3 wins came against Houston, both as underdogs. Houston 2-8 SU/ATS last 10 times they played after a win. Home underdogs are 101-62 ATS after a dog win if their opponent won as home favorite previous week.
As for Oakland, I lake betting on teams that were held scoreless in previous games, especially late in the regular season. Underdogs in last 6 weeks of regular season are 29-9 ATS if they scored 0 and allowed 16+ in previous game. This systems is 22-2 if the team is playing on regular 6 days rest.
Finally San Diego...Probably the riskiest play as I do not like betting against NWE (not because I have too much respect but rather because they often find a way to screw me, regardless if I bet on or against them). Home underdogs are 132-93 after a road dog win. New England played in Green Bay last week and have 3 divisional games coming up including games against Miami and Buffalo who are chasing them for the divisional crown. San Diego has no margin for error, trailing Denver by 1 game and having Denver, SF and KC on deck.
| 17 | Sun | November 14, 2010 | L | Houston Texans | @ | Jacksonville Jaguars | 24 | 31 |
| 18 | Sun | January 2, 2011 | W | Houston Texans | Jacksonville Jaguars | 34 | 17 | |
| 19 | Sun | October 30, 2011 | W | Houston Texans | Jacksonville Jaguars | 24 | 14 | |
| 20 | Sun | November 27, 2011 | W | Houston Texans | @ | Jacksonville Jaguars | 20 | 13 |
| 21 | Sun | September 16, 2012 | W | Houston Texans | @ | Jacksonville Jaguars | 27 | 7 |
| 22 | Sun | November 18, 2012 | W | Houston Texans | Jacksonville Jaguars | 43 | 37 | |
| 23 | Sun | November 24, 2013 | L | Houston Texans | Jacksonville Jaguars | 6 | 13 | |
| 24 | Thu | December 5, 2013 | L | Houston Texans | @ | Jacksonville Jaguars | 20 | 27 |
Regular season and previous game Dog Win SU and now Home Dog when opponent Won as Home Favor last week.
I cut it out to each year from 2010.
REG and HD and p W and op:HFW and season >= 1994 | |||
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| REG and HD and pW and op:HFW and season >= 2004 | |||
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| REG and HD and pW and op:HFW and season >= 2008 | |||
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| REG and HD and pW and op:HFW and season >= 2011 | |||
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I cut it out to each year from 2010.
| REG and HD and pW and op:HFW and season = 2010 | |||||||||
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| REG and HD and pW and op:HFW and season = 2011 | |||||||||
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| REG and HD and pW and op:HFW and season = 2012 | |||||||||
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| REG and HD and pW and op:HFW and season = 2013 | |||||||||
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| REG and HD and pW and op:HFW and season = 2014 | |||||||||
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Also found this, remember I am not trying to scare people away from Parga picks, but just bring more information. PLAY or NOT, it is your decision. Thank you for understanding!!!
| REG and HD and pW and t:WP < 30 and op:WP <= 50 and op:HFW and season >= 1998 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Regular season and previous game Dog Win SU and now Home Dog when opponent Won as Home Favor last week.
REG and HD and p
ATS: 78-51-5 (2.75, 60.5%) avg line: 4.6 REG and HD and p
ATS: 35-32-4 (0.49, 52.2%) avg line: 4.2 REG and HD and p
ATS: 22-19-3 (0.84, 53.7%) avg line: 3.9 REG and HD and p
ATS: 10-9-2 (1.62, 52.6%) avg line: 3.2
I cut it out to each year from 2010.
REG and HD and p
SU: 4-6-0 (-2.00, 40.0%) ATS: 7-2-1 (1.90, 77.8%) avg line: 3.9 REG and HD and p
SU: 2-5-0 (-5.43, 28.6%) ATS: 2-4-1 (-2.36, 33.3%) avg line: 3. REG and HD and p
SU: 6-2-0 (0.62, 75.0%) ATS: 6-2-0 (3.94, 75.0%) avg line: 3.3 REG and HD and p
SU: 0-4-0 (-6.50, 0.0%) ATS: 1-2-1 (-2.62, 33.3%) avg line: 3.9 REG and HD and p
SU: 1-1-0 (12.50, 50.0%) ATS: 1-1-0 (14.75, 50.0%) avg line: 2.2 O/U: 2-0-0 (4.75, 100.0%) avg total: 44.8
HD and p
W and op:HFW query at sportsdatabase gives out this result:| ATS: | 101-62-6 (3.02, 62.0%) | avg line: 4.6 |
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And remember, I like my plays for many reasons. I make my decision on my card, then just for fun I do my research at sportsdatabase but very rarely these trends make me change my mind. My plays are not based on trends and systems, as these can help but they are not at the base of my handicapping process.
Jaguars winning both meetings against Houston last season, when Jacksonville only had 4 wins all season long, and covering both meetings while going 3-10-1 ATS in other 14 games they played is telling me all I need to know. They owned Houston last season and they almost beat them in 2nd meeting of 2012 as 15 points underdogs, leading by 14 in the 4th, but eventually losing in OT. That game came during their 1-12 SU and 5-8 ATS run from week 4 to week 17. Their 37 points scored in that game was their best offensive production of the season that year. They scored 27 in 2nd meeting against Houston last season and that was their 2nd best offensive game last season and they allowed only 6 in their first meeting last season and that was by far their best defensive game last season and first and only game they allowed under 20 last season. Lets not forget that they were double digit underdogs in two of those three meetings. The fact is, their rare good games recently are coming against Houston way too often to get ignored.
Tough for me to back Jax in this spot. I agree, they have HOU's number, but Houston has an outside shot at the playoffs (I know its a longshot) and I think it makes for a much more interesting story line next week for the HOU vs Colts game if the Texans take care of business here. I agree, Houston is NOT a good football team, but the games they are winning this season are against bottom tier teams and they are winning handily. Not saying HOU is the right side, but JAX scares me allowing a league high 50 SACKS (next worst is WAS with 39) and a -7 turnover diff vs HOU +11.
