Week 14: Final Week

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Another college season comes to a close…but there's BOWL Games to look forward to. 2-1 last week on large plays, but smaller ones wiped out the gain. Still can't believe that Oregon State had their best half of the season in Autzen, down by 24. The Beavers have literally sucked ALL year, and then score 35 in a half??? The Ducks' defense looked completely disinterested. They should have played the benchwarmers. They, at least, would have tried to tackle someone.

Small Play: (Would be larger, but these FCS games have small limits)

Portland State +4.5 Was at 5.5, stopped to look something up, and it was 4.5 five minutes later. Now it's at 3.5 and might still drop. PSU is at home after the bye week, while Northern Iowa travels after playing last week. PSU has played in a better conference, and has made a habit of winning these important games. They beat 2 FBS teams this year, Wash. State being one of them and slaughtered N. Texas by about 50 points. The PSU QB, Alex Kuresa, is a gamer that reminds of a lesser version of Mariota. Great decision maker on the fly, can make all the passes, and runs when needed. This game will likely be played in the rain, which PSU practices in all the time. PSU ranked 9 spots ahead of NI in the coaches poll. They win here, and thanks for the points, but I won't need them.

 

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Large Play:

Baylor/ Texas- under 68.5 Texas has only been able to score easily vs. the weaker Big 12 teams, going back a few years. Against the better teams, they are lucky to break 20. With Swopes back in there, and his lack of passing acumen(47%, only 3 passes over 30 yards), Texas will rely on Chris Warren a lot. Warren ran all over Texas Tech, but then who doesn't. Baylor's defense will focus largely on Warren and the Texas running game, which along with their offense, has gone missing on numerous occasions(Iowa State, WVU, TCU- all road games, all uninspired efforts). Also, with Texas running often and trying to keep Baylor's O off the field, I think we'll see a time sucking Texas offense that is happy to grind out 1st downs, huddling up, and work the clock.

I also think this Baylor defense is NOT a poor defense. Yes, they have gotten burned at times by the other high-flyers in the Big 12, but the front 7 is extremely tough vs. so-so teams like Texas, and has got a pass rush that rivals anyone's in the Big 12. Their weakness is in the secondary where Texas will not have the QB that can exploit it. Baylor is playing this game to get in the Sugar Bowl on New Year's Day. They'll struggle with their own backup to the backup QB, and I think we'll see a run heavy offense. Chris Johnson showed his warts last week vs. TCU, and god forbid he gets injured, leaving Baylor with ? at QB. Shock Linwood is questionable with an ankle injury, and even if he goes, he'll be less than the great playmaker that he usually is. This total is only about 7 away from the average Big 12 game where 2 of the high powered offenses go at it- (think TCU vs. TT or Baylor-pre QB injury vs. Oklahoma).

 

[cashflow50]

Gl Fred ..hope we agree on some

 

[jcubs55]

Fred, thanks once again for all the time you spend sharing your thoughts. As a Hawkeye alum heading to Indy on Saturday, I would LOVE to hear your opinion on Iowa's chances in this one... Thanks and good luck this week!

 

[ofred]

Fred, thanks once again for all the time you spend sharing your thoughts. As a Hawkeye alum heading to Indy on Saturday, I would LOVE to hear your opinion on Iowa's chances in this one... Thanks and good luck this week!

Read below

 

[ofred]

Large Play:

Michigan State -3 (-130) I don't think I had to buy the juice here, but just in case….. Michigan State just seems like the team that has been through everything this year. A tough schedule, close wins, injuries, the loss of their DC, a one point road loss after their bye- and I think those things will make them the better team here. Actually, they are the better team here regardless of all that. Like bowl games, these championship games are like a one game season, with all the marbles at stake. Here's why I like MSU in this situation:

* People say they got lucky vs. Michigan with that crazy punt flub at the end of the game. Not true. MSU outplayed Michigan IF you saw the game. Outyarded them by 156 yards (MSU-386 yards), and this against a team that hadn't been scored upon in 3 games. Best defense in CFB? Not after that game. And on the road.
* On the road vs. undefeated Ohio State, Connor Cook is out. Held OSU to 132 yards! MSU DID what they had to do to win w/o their ace QB. In the big games, their D will get it done.
* Close game with Indiana. MSU pours it on late, scoring 24 in the 4th qtr. Letdown after the huge OSU win? Michigan State slaughters Penn State to win the division.
* I like the demeanor of this team in big games. After the Nebraska loss, they admitted their shortcomings and resolved to better themselves as a team. I think that loss might have been good for them. After winning close game after close game, they needed a wake-up. Great work ethic kind of team.

Here's why I DON'T like Iowa:

* Kirk Ferentz. Everybody loves him now, but Iowa fans had been crying for his sacking for 2 years before that. Because of his contract, it didn't get done. I'm not an Iowa fan, but I believe there were complaints about his game planning(exceedingly predictable), clock management, game management, general dullness, and once a good recruiter- not so good in recent years.
* No Big 10 games with Michigan, Ohio State and MSU. Do you think they'd be undefeated if they HAD? I don't like to bet on teams in big games that aren't battle tested. Going 12-0 even with their schedule is quite an accomplishment, but in this one game season, it means nothing except motivation for MSU to give them their 1st loss.
* Non-conference games with Illinois State, North Texas, Pitt, and Iowa State. Not exactly an early season test.
* The vaunted defense? Not so much in their last 4 games. Nebraska outplayed them, but turned it over 4 times(out-yarded by almost 200-anyone surprised to see Nebraska screw it up?), gave up over 400 yards to Purdue and out-yarded(god help Purdue in the red zone), 434 yards to a woeful Minnesota offense, 407 yards to Indiana(tied in the 4th qtr).
* Winning at Wisconsin was impressive, but this team also had 7 home games vs. some weaklings.
* With incredible talent, a team can run the table. With Iowa's talent, your luck will even out. You'll have that one game where your fairly good, but not great talent causes you to lose the game, sometimes by a lot. We have seen some dominant Big 10 Championship games in the past 5 years, and I think we'll see that again.
* I think MSU is the more athletic team, but that's just my eye test.

If Iowa does win, my hats off to them. They deserve a spot in the final 4 playoff. I don't see it, and they might get raked badly in the playoff, but it would be an amazing run for them considering the preseason expectations. For this game, though, I can see Iowa winning only a close game, but I can also see MSU winning by a large margin.

 

[jcubs55]

Ugh... Bit of a let down but I thank you for sharing your honest opinion nonetheless. I'll even wish ya luck!

 

[cashflow50]

hate going against ya fred. feel they are destined to win and make it the playoffs. gl bro

 

[ofred]

Iowa bettors, you're getting 3.5 with a 12-0 team. Even though I'm on the other side, that's not a bad take. You can lose the game and win the bet, unlike those of us on MSU.

 

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Large Play:

USC/ Stanford- over 58 This total has no where to go but up, so I'll snag it here. Was tempted to take USC as a side bet as I think they'll be primed to use all of their offensive weapons vs. a tired and not very deep Stanford defensive front(not a week off since early Oct). USC has been an enigma, as usual, this season. But when they come to play, as I think they will Saturday, they can be explosive offensively. In previous years, Stanford would win these type of games due to their great running game and a stout D. And a 53-58 total would be about right. But if you saw them get gouged for big plays against both ND and Oregon, then you know that old Stanford defense is no longer there. They, like USC, do have a couple of stars on that side of the ball, but neither team is loaded like they used to be. Stanford is also likely without their best cover CB, Ronnie Harris. Or a somewhat hobbled Ronnie Harris.

Just because these 2 teams run the ball a lot, don't be under the misperception that this will be a plodding, low scoring contest. Plenty of teams run often and score 30-40 points week in and week out- like Oregon, Ga. Southern, Navy, Stanford, Baylor, Houston, and now….USC. I like the over so much BECAUSE these 2 teams run the ball so well, and both have very good passing QBs to keep the defenses guessing. Also, if you look at both USC and Stanford this year, and somewhat other years, they are much more prolific in scoring vs. the quality teams- not the Colorado, UW, non-conference type of teams. Both teams have had far more totals over 58.5 against the better PAC 12 teams than under 58.5. Sometimes by a lot. Part of this is that the coaches open up the play book, partly because great offensive players(and these 2 have many) bring their A game in a showcase game like this one. Stanford hoping to have a chance in the playoff; USC to knock them out of the playoff, win the PAC 12 championship, show their support to popular coach Clay Helton, and then there's revenge for a loss earlier this year.

Really like having 2 senior QBs here, both who have been in the BIG game atmosphere. Kessler can get the ball to Juju or other receivers(Darreus Rogers looks like a future star), or dump it off to his backs. The USC backs, Jones and Davis, also are all capable of the long TD run. Quick passes and screens will keep Stanford on their heels, and overcommitting to the rush. Then there's McCaffrey and that great Stanford OL. McCaffrey is not just a bruiser in the Stanford tradition. He's got plenty of moves, knows how to find an opening and hit it fast, and is basically one of those guys that's just a great football player. In this game, I would also expect a few new twists or options to Stanford's offense. More designed runs for Hogan, play action, and whatever else keeps USC from focusing solely on McCaffrey. Both teams are capable of a special teams return TD, or at least some long returns.

Nice weather expected. My play says the offenses rule the day here. In my experience, the offensive speed and skills of the PAC 12 have entertained us and will do so again in Santa Clara.

 

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Small Play:

Georgia So./ Georgia State- over 58 Georgia Southern in a bid for an automatic bid for conference championship, and saying goodbye to their seniors on their final home game. They have been known to carve up teams like Georgia State with their very hard to defend triple option offense. Last year they put 61 on this Ga. State team, with a total of 100 points for the game. GaSo averages about 45-50 points a game vs. weaker defenses like Ga. State. Georgia State is the perfect opponent offensively for Ga. Southern, if you like the over. They have a strong passing game, and can score garbage TDs in the 2nd half if they get down by a lot- which is likely. Senior Nick Arbuckle has passed for 3,814 yards this year, with 23 TDs. He has 4 good receiving options, and should be able to put 2-3 TDs on the board even before garbage time. Nice weather, artificial turf, 2 offensive minded teams, and 58 seems like a low total.

 

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Smallest play:

Alabama -16.5 At this number I had to put something on the best team in the country. I just don't see how Florida scores except off of a TO, a special teams play(very unlikely) or a lucky offensive TD like Auburn got last week. Long sustained drives for a TD aint going to happen. Very possible 30-7 type score.

 

[MackDonald]

Smallest play:

Alabama -16.5 At this number I had to put something on the best team in the country. I just don't see how Florida scores except off of a TO, a special teams play(very unlikely) or a lucky offensive TD like Auburn got last week. Long sustained drives for a TD aint going to happen. Very possible 30-7 type score.

And, Florida has no kicking game unless they found someone on campus this week.

 

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And, Florida has no kicking game unless they found someone on campus this week.

This one could be a blowout, and I'll regret not loading up. Or not...

 

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Lean on Arkansas St. 1H(-14) and 1Q(-7), which means some $, but maybe more later. Texas State may not show up- end of the season road game, with no defense.

 

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2-0-1 on large plays, but should just give up on smaller ones.