Game never keeps a record, he never has.......he probably a bit over 50%
Lol, no! It took me a few times to figure it out......but once you do, its easy......forget about what any team won by, or any stats.......just look at Games chart, that's it. He has Saints one number higher than Atlanta, so you go down to where the #1 is written......the first line is for the home team, but since the Saints are the road team, you look at the second line for the #1 & you see any team in that situation as a 1 pt road fav according to the chart is 6-1 ATS this year
Remember, it doesn't matter what the spread is in Vegas or anywhere else, it has nothing to do with Games chart.
Holy shit.....I hope these posts didn’t occur from Thursday nights outcome...
First the elephant walking past the couch.
The #’s aren’t perfect but they are really good. I don’t mind losing a game, I don’t even mind losing the 1st game posted, but I gotta admit that losing the 1st of the posted plays in that fashion, where the game is wrapped up 1st and goal from the 5 with Brees behind the controls down by 3 getting 2 and he throws an int in the end zone.......that hurt.
But that play just might have been the switch....I’ll explain...
Candylicker asked about the 20pt sb system, damn, I did the math and what do ya know.....whew....here we go, this might take a minute, I forgive anyone who falls asleep reading this.
First the “fast start” system...
Of the last 12 straight Super Bowls the team matching all 6 requirements after week 4 won the bowl 10 Times, twice it was won by a team matching 5 of the 6 (no one won matching less than 5)..the remaining teams who matched all 6 and have a legitimate chance are Pitt,kc and Atlanta.
The slew of teams matching 5 of 6 reads...Ne,jax,ten,phi,min,car,lar,sea,det and New Orleans.
Now let’s incorporate the “20pt” system....
I’m sure you remember how it works, a series of points are assigned to each playoff team based on their regular season games outcomes...+3 for wins holding opp under 14, +2 for wins allowing opp over 30, -3 for losses allowing opp over 30, -2 for losses allowing opp under 14...
Over the last 17 straight years at least one team has reached 20+pts 15 Times(twice no one reached 20),of the 15 years when a team reached 20pts, that team went to the super bowl 13 times...the 2 times where that team did not make it was in 2015 when Seattle +21 was beaten by Carolina in div round and 2009 when minn+20 was beaten in ot by New Orleans on the now infamous Brett Favre interception in the con champ game.
Let’s tie in this year’s numbers...so far through week 14 with 3 games to go we have....ready?
Jacksonville +18
New Orleans +16
Philadelphia +12
La rams +11
Baltimore +9
La chargers +9
Minnesota +9
Pittsburgh +9
New England +8
Seattle +8
Carolina +6
Atlanta +3
Starting to see anything?
When using the 20pt system to determine the winner, you simply take the sb participant with the lower #...since 05,(12 years), this method has produced the sb ats winner 10 Times 83%, it’s produced the su winner 10 times since 04 77%
Now putting them together....the teams who look like they got a good chance of going( based on the 20pt system)(13 of 15 Times) are Jacksonville, Philadelphia, or NEW ORLEANS....
....the team who has won the superbowl (based on the “fast start” system)(10 of last 12 Times) are atl, kc and PITTSBURGH....
looking at the #’s...so far....
New Orleans +16
Pittsburgh +9
So....Thursday’s late interception by Brees just may have been the best pass (and the switch) this year for his team igniting their Super Bowl run
Shits crazy and there are still games to go but you never know....and candylicker....thanks for making me dig around in this,this early...LOL.
I’ll pop up some games in a while.....
GAME.
First the elephant walking past the couch.
The #’s aren’t perfect but they are really good. I don’t mind losing a game, I don’t even mind losing the 1st game posted, but I gotta admit that losing the 1st of the posted plays in that fashion, where the game is wrapped up 1st and goal from the 5 with Brees behind the controls down by 3 getting 2 and he throws an int in the end zone.......that hurt.
But that play just might have been the switch....I’ll explain...
Candylicker asked about the 20pt sb system, damn, I did the math and what do ya know.....whew....here we go, this might take a minute, I forgive anyone who falls asleep reading this.
First the “fast start” system...
Of the last 12 straight Super Bowls the team matching all 6 requirements after week 4 won the bowl 10 Times, twice it was won by a team matching 5 of the 6 (no one won matching less than 5)..the remaining teams who matched all 6 and have a legitimate chance are Pitt,kc and Atlanta.
The slew of teams matching 5 of 6 reads...Ne,jax,ten,phi,min,car,lar,sea,det and New Orleans.
Now let’s incorporate the “20pt” system....
I’m sure you remember how it works, a series of points are assigned to each playoff team based on their regular season games outcomes...+3 for wins holding opp under 14, +2 for wins allowing opp over 30, -3 for losses allowing opp over 30, -2 for losses allowing opp under 14...
Over the last 17 straight years at least one team has reached 20+pts 15 Times(twice no one reached 20),of the 15 years when a team reached 20pts, that team went to the super bowl 13 times...the 2 times where that team did not make it was in 2015 when Seattle +21 was beaten by Carolina in div round and 2009 when minn+20 was beaten in ot by New Orleans on the now infamous Brett Favre interception in the con champ game.
Let’s tie in this year’s numbers...so far through week 14 with 3 games to go we have....ready?
Jacksonville +18
New Orleans +16
Philadelphia +12
La rams +11
Baltimore +9
La chargers +9
Minnesota +9
Pittsburgh +9
New England +8
Seattle +8
Carolina +6
Atlanta +3
Starting to see anything?
When using the 20pt system to determine the winner, you simply take the sb participant with the lower #...since 05,(12 years), this method has produced the sb ats winner 10 Times 83%, it’s produced the su winner 10 times since 04 77%
Now putting them together....the teams who look like they got a good chance of going( based on the 20pt system)(13 of 15 Times) are Jacksonville, Philadelphia, or NEW ORLEANS....
....the team who has won the superbowl (based on the “fast start” system)(10 of last 12 Times) are atl, kc and PITTSBURGH....
looking at the #’s...so far....
New Orleans +16
Pittsburgh +9
So....Thursday’s late interception by Brees just may have been the best pass (and the switch) this year for his team igniting their Super Bowl run
Shits crazy and there are still games to go but you never know....and candylicker....thanks for making me dig around in this,this early...LOL.
I’ll pop up some games in a while.....
GAME.
Chi at cin(6.5) 38.5...
Chi 8-3 ats on the road vs afc s 12
Chi 14-4 ats before playing det s 08
Chi 4-24 su in game 13 of reg sea s 89
Chi 11-2 over after playing a game decided by 1pt s 91
Chi 12-2 over in 1st of b2b road games s 11
Cin 0-4-1 ats as a fav off mnf s 06
Cin 2-8 su in game 13 of reg sea s 07
Ind at buf
Ind 15-3 ats off a su loss of 14+pts s 12
Ind 11-4 over on the road off a su road loss s 00
Buf 12-4-2 ats as a home dog of 3pts or less s 03
Buf 16-7-1 ats as a non div home dog s 06
Dal(4) at nyg 41.5...
Dal 6-25 under in 2nd of b2b div games s 96
Series..team who covered 1st game, covered 2nd game in all odd # years s 01..8 straight years (dal cov 1st)
Oak at kc(4) 48.5...
Oak 2-12 ats in game 13 of reg sea s 03
Series..fav covered 7 of last 10 s 12
..........only 2 of last 11 games in kc have went over s 06
..........only 3 of last 23 games exceeded 44pts s 06
..........su winner is 23-2 ats s 05
Gb(3) at cle 40.5...
Cle 13-7 ats in 1st of b2b home games s 09
Cle 3-14-1 under before playing Balt s 03
Was at lac(6) 46...
Was 10-3-3 ats after playing dal s 08
La 2-11 ats before playing kc s 10
Ten(3) at ari 44...
Ten 10-5 over in game 13 of reg sea s 01
Ten 22-10-1 over after playing a div home game s 05
Ari 16-3 ats as a dog of less than 4pts s 12
Ari 12-1 su+ats at home off a su loss vs an opp off a su dd win s 07
Phi at lar(2.5) 48...
Phi 4-11 ats before playing nyg s 10
La 4-10 under after playing ari s 10
Sea at jax(2.5) 40...
Sea 12-1-2 ats as a dog off a su win s 11
Sea 8-20 ats on the road off a su home win of 10+pts s 05
Jax 4-14 ats off a su win of 20+pts s 03
Jax 19-7 over vs nfc s 11
Bal at pit(4.5) 44...
Bal 4-0 ats as div road dogs s 15
Bal 9-1-2 ats after scoring 40+pts s 99
Pit 4-12 ats off a mnf road game s 98
Series..dog is 7-3-3 ats in last 13 games s 11
..........bal is 3-1-4 ats last 8 in pit s 09
..........there has only been 2 reg sea ats sweeps over last 10 years (pit cov 1st)
Ne(11) at Mia 47.5...
Ne 16-1 su in game 13 of reg sea s 99
Mia 1-9 ats on mnf s 09
Mia 4-12 under before playing buf s 08
Mia 5-11 under in game 13 of reg sea s 01
Series..home team covered 10 of last 11 s 12
..........home team covered 11 of last 13 December games s 00
**defending sb champions are 9-24-1 ats as a dd fav if they’re off an ats win of more than 3pts s 80
GAME.
Chi 8-3 ats on the road vs afc s 12
Chi 14-4 ats before playing det s 08
Chi 4-24 su in game 13 of reg sea s 89
Chi 11-2 over after playing a game decided by 1pt s 91
Chi 12-2 over in 1st of b2b road games s 11
Cin 0-4-1 ats as a fav off mnf s 06
Cin 2-8 su in game 13 of reg sea s 07
Ind at buf
Ind 15-3 ats off a su loss of 14+pts s 12
Ind 11-4 over on the road off a su road loss s 00
Buf 12-4-2 ats as a home dog of 3pts or less s 03
Buf 16-7-1 ats as a non div home dog s 06
Dal(4) at nyg 41.5...
Dal 6-25 under in 2nd of b2b div games s 96
Series..team who covered 1st game, covered 2nd game in all odd # years s 01..8 straight years (dal cov 1st)
Oak at kc(4) 48.5...
Oak 2-12 ats in game 13 of reg sea s 03
Series..fav covered 7 of last 10 s 12
..........only 2 of last 11 games in kc have went over s 06
..........only 3 of last 23 games exceeded 44pts s 06
..........su winner is 23-2 ats s 05
Gb(3) at cle 40.5...
Cle 13-7 ats in 1st of b2b home games s 09
Cle 3-14-1 under before playing Balt s 03
Was at lac(6) 46...
Was 10-3-3 ats after playing dal s 08
La 2-11 ats before playing kc s 10
Ten(3) at ari 44...
Ten 10-5 over in game 13 of reg sea s 01
Ten 22-10-1 over after playing a div home game s 05
Ari 16-3 ats as a dog of less than 4pts s 12
Ari 12-1 su+ats at home off a su loss vs an opp off a su dd win s 07
Phi at lar(2.5) 48...
Phi 4-11 ats before playing nyg s 10
La 4-10 under after playing ari s 10
Sea at jax(2.5) 40...
Sea 12-1-2 ats as a dog off a su win s 11
Sea 8-20 ats on the road off a su home win of 10+pts s 05
Jax 4-14 ats off a su win of 20+pts s 03
Jax 19-7 over vs nfc s 11
Bal at pit(4.5) 44...
Bal 4-0 ats as div road dogs s 15
Bal 9-1-2 ats after scoring 40+pts s 99
Pit 4-12 ats off a mnf road game s 98
Series..dog is 7-3-3 ats in last 13 games s 11
..........bal is 3-1-4 ats last 8 in pit s 09
..........there has only been 2 reg sea ats sweeps over last 10 years (pit cov 1st)
Ne(11) at Mia 47.5...
Ne 16-1 su in game 13 of reg sea s 99
Mia 1-9 ats on mnf s 09
Mia 4-12 under before playing buf s 08
Mia 5-11 under in game 13 of reg sea s 01
Series..home team covered 10 of last 11 s 12
..........home team covered 11 of last 13 December games s 00
**defending sb champions are 9-24-1 ats as a dd fav if they’re off an ats win of more than 3pts s 80
GAME.
