Week 13 #'s

[THEGAME9000]

Week 13

Ari 126
Atl 119
Bal 118
Buf 120
Car 128
Chi 116
Cin 128
Cle 113
Dal 117
Den 126
Det 118
Gb 124
Hou 116
Ind 120
Jax 111
Kc 129
Mia 113
Min 121
Ne 131
No 110
Nyg 120
Nyj 119
Oak 116
Phi 117
Pit 125
Stl 118
Sd 113
Sf 113
Sea 126
Tb 115
Ten 108
Was 116

Cover chart
Pts....home favs.........................road favs.................................home picks
1.......wlpwlw...............................lwlll.....................................
2.......wwwwwwwlww...................wlplww.............................-2l..
3.......lwlllww...............................lllwww............................-3l-3l-3l-3.5l
4.......wwlwwlwww.......................wwwllw.............................-4l
5.......lwlwwl...............................lwpllw..................................
6.......pwwlwwlww........................wlwllwwllwl..........................
7.......wpll...................................lwlwl....................................
8.......wlllllwll...............................lwwwlwllw.............................
9.......llllw....................................www.....................................
10.....llll......................................ww..........................................
11.....ll........................................llwwlwl..................................
12.....lwpl.....................................wl..........................................
13.....lplw.....................................lllwll.....................................
14.....l.........................................lp......................................
15.....wl.......................................wl.......................................
16...............................................wwww................................
17...............................................w............................................
18.....www.....................................l.........................................
19.....w..................................................................................
20..........................................................................................
21..........................................................................................
22..........................................................................................
23..........................................................................................
24..........................................................................................
25..........................................................................................

I'd say after week 12 it's pretty safe to assume "home team picks" in the #'s seem pretty much doomed to fail..

Business as usual in week 12, let's see how week 13 does...no doubt more of the same.

Gl



GAME.

 

[TomandJerry]

atl, buf, oak, sd, nor, phi, was

 

[shale]

Cover chart
Pts....home favs......................... road favs................................
1.......wlpwlw NY GIANTS lwlll.....................................DALLAS
2.......wwwwwwwlww.................. wlplww.............................
3.......lwlllww CHICAGO lllwww............................JAX
4.......wwlwwlwww BUFFALO...... wwwllw............................ATLANTA
5.......lwlwwl.............................. lwpllw..................................BALTIMORE - SEATTLE - PITTS
6.......pwwlwwlww........................ wlwllwwllwl..........................GREEN BAY
7.......wpll.................................. lwlwl....................................
8.......wlllllwll.............................. lwwwlwllw.............................ARIZONA
9.......llllw.................................... www.....................................
10.....llll..................................... ww..........................................
11.....ll........................................ llwwlwl..................................
12.....lwpl..................................... wl..........................................
13.....lplw..................................... lllwll.................................... DENVER - KC
14.....l.....CAROLINA - NEW ENGLAND lp......................................
15.....wl....................................... wl.......................................CINCY
16.............................................. wwww................................
17............................................... w............................................
18.....www.................................... l.........................................
19.....w..................................................................................
20..........................................................................................
21..........................................................................................
22..........................................................................................
23..........................................................................................
24..........................................................................................
25..........................................................................................

 

[shale]

Washington 4-1
Buffalo 7-2
Atlanta 4-2
Oakland 5-1
San Diego 5-1
New Orleans 1-0
Philadelphia 1-0

 

[THEGAME9000]

Cover chart
Pts....home favs......................... road favs................................
1.......wlpwlw NY GIANTS lwlll.....................................DALLAS
2.......wwwwwwwlww.................. wlplww.............................
3.......lwlllww CHICAGO lllwww............................JAX
4.......wwlwwlwww BUFFALO...... wwwllw............................ATLANTA
5.......lwlwwl.............................. lwpllw..................................BALTIMORE - SEATTLE - PITTS
6.......pwwlwwlww........................ wlwllwwllwl..........................GREEN BAY
7.......wpll.................................. lwlwl....................................
8.......wlllllwll.............................. lwwwlwllw.............................ARIZONA
9.......llllw.................................... www.....................................
10.....llll..................................... ww..........................................
11.....ll........................................ llwwlwl..................................
12.....lwpl..................................... wl..........................................
13.....lplw..................................... lllwll.................................... DENVER - KC
14.....l.....CAROLINA - NEW ENGLAND lp......................................
15.....wl....................................... wl.......................................CINCY
16.............................................. wwww................................
17............................................... w............................................
18.....www.................................... l.........................................
19.....w..................................................................................
20..........................................................................................
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23..........................................................................................
24..........................................................................................
25..........................................................................................

Shale...that's pretty good of a way to lay out the plays by inserting them on the lines where they fall....a visually simplistic and yet definitive explanation of how it works...nice.

I have 5 plays...insufficient data on the 1-0's, in my opinion.

GAME.

 

[justanobserver]

Out of curiosity what historically have been stronger plays, games where the numbers land on a favorite in a favorable position or games where you are opposing the favorite in a non favorable position?

 

[RoughingThePasser]

Game,

Your "rating system" has proven to be incredibly effective week in and week out, minus a brutal week 8 (we all have a bad week). I have been following your posts of stats and rating #'s for a couple of years and it has been paying dividends, I don't bother checking any other thread. With a season full of absurd upsets and trends being dismantled, somehow your rating system has panned out; your formula is on point and just short of a miracle. I have been keeping track of your plays based on the rating system since week 4, which you noted is when the system becomes effective, and to my joyful surprise, 68% of plays end in a W (win). A 68% win percentage may not mean much to some looking in, but when the amount of plays per week are factored in (4-5), this is an amazing win percentage. Your system alone has taken me from losing each week, to popping out 3 baggers and 4 baggers weekly, I find 3 team parlays to be stronger than Hercules.

I'm sure you are already aware of your weekly breakdowns, but this has to be seen by everyone. The rating system should be followed religiously by all NFL gamblers, an this is why:

Week 4 (2-0)
Atlanta 3-0... WIN
Cincinnati 3-0... WIN

Week 5 (3-1)
Denver 2-0 ... WIN
Philadelphia 3-1... WIN
St. Louis 5-1... LOSS
Tampa Bay 5-0... WIN

Week 6 (2-1)
Miami 2-0... WIN
Minnesota 6-0... WIN
Seattle 2-0-1... LOSS


Week 7 (3-2)
Carolina 2-0... WIN
Indianapolis 7-0... LOSS
Jacksonville 2-0... WIN
NY Giants 7-0... WIN
San Diego 4-1... LOSS

Week 8 (2-4)
Carolina 3-1-1...LOSS
Cleveland 3-0... LOSS
Green Bay 3-0... LOSS
Pittsburgh 3-0... LOSS
St. Louis 3-1-1... WIN
Tampa Bay 2-0... WIN


Week 9 (4-1)
Buffalo 5-2... WIN
Green Bay 3-1... LOSS
New England 2-0... WIN
Oakland 5-2... WIN
Tennessee 5-2... WIN

Week 10 (5-1)
NY Jets 3-1... LOSS
Carolina 3-0... WIN
Miami 2-0... WIN
Jacksonville 3-0... WIN
Kansas City 3-1... WIN
NY Giants 3-1... WIN

Week 11 (4-2)
Tennessee 4-1... LOSS
Carolina 4-2-1... WIN
Detroit 3-1... WIN
Tampa Bay 3-0... WIN
San Francisco 2-0-1... LOSS
Cincinnati 3-0... WIN

Week 12 (5-2)
Carolina 2-0... WIN
Houston 6-2... WIN
Cincinnati 5-2-1... WIN
Tampa Bay 4-2... LOSS
Buffalo 4-0... LOSS
NY Jets 8-1... WIN
San Francisco 4-1... WIN

Week 13+
Looking forward to more solid outcomes!

Week 13

Ari 126
Atl 119
Bal 118
Buf 120
Car 128
Chi 116
Cin 128
Cle 113
Dal 117
Den 126
Det 118
Gb 124
Hou 116
Ind 120
Jax 111
Kc 129
Mia 113
Min 121
Ne 131
No 110
Nyg 120
Nyj 119
Oak 116
Phi 117
Pit 125
Stl 118
Sd 113
Sf 113
Sea 126
Tb 115
Ten 108
Was 116

Cover chart
Pts....home favs.........................road favs.................................home picks
1.......wlpwlw...............................lwlll.....................................
2.......wwwwwwwlww...................wlplww.............................-2l..
3.......lwlllww...............................lllwww............................-3l-3l-3l-3.5l
4.......wwlwwlwww.......................wwwllw.............................-4l
5.......lwlwwl...............................lwpllw..................................
6.......pwwlwwlww........................wlwllwwllwl..........................
7.......wpll...................................lwlwl....................................
8.......wlllllwll...............................lwwwlwllw.............................
9.......llllw....................................www.....................................
10.....llll......................................ww..........................................
11.....ll........................................llwwlwl..................................
12.....lwpl.....................................wl..........................................
13.....lplw.....................................lllwll.....................................
14.....l.........................................lp......................................
15.....wl.......................................wl.......................................
16...............................................wwww................................
17...............................................w............................................
18.....www.....................................l.........................................
19.....w..................................................................................
20..........................................................................................
21..........................................................................................
22..........................................................................................
23..........................................................................................
24..........................................................................................
25..........................................................................................

I'd say after week 12 it's pretty safe to assume "home team picks" in the #'s seem pretty much doomed to fail..

Business as usual in week 12, let's see how week 13 does...no doubt more of the same.

Gl



GAME.

 

[adub034]

Washington 4-1
Buffalo 7-2
Atlanta 4-2
Oakland 5-1
San Diego 5-1
New Orleans 1-0
Philadelphia 1-0

7 plays this weekend then...right?

 

[phantom888]

7 plays this weekend then...right?

game says 5.

insufficient data on the two 1-0 ones.

but goodluck if you decide to go for it!

 

[THEGAME9000]

Wow...RTP...a true follower...I'm impressed

I appreciate it...thanx

Gl this week

GAME.

 

[THEGAME9000]

I stopped posting insights weeks ago because this year has been overwhelming unusual as far as the majority of trends and stats going exactly opposite of the way they stated and have been built by repetition over dozens of years.
Even "old faithful" trends that just keep following patterns have taken it on the chin with great regularity.
This got me to thinking of when was the last time a year had this kind of anomaly...I had to go all the way back in my records to 1985 to find a similar year, it was the last time a single loss team dominated the year and went on to take the bowl with a 15-1 record, as the Bears ripped New England.
It's been 9 straight weeks now where the trends have basically did more harm than good this year.
I have some time on my hands this evening so we'll run them one last time and see if it continues, if it does, it will play into a theory I have for this years bowl.
Be back shortly with insights, I'll load'em up.

GAME.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Yeah 9000........the trends went 0-3 ATS on the sides.......& those trends looked super juicy.



Just roll with your system dude......its doing very wel.

 

[cruisin]

that one-loss team.....................................................Pats.dbanana0-9 (As of now, anyway)

 

[THEGAME9000]

Cin(9) at cle 43.5...
Cin 8-3 ats off a su win of 21+pts s 09
Cin 16-6-1 ats off a su win of 10+pts s 11
Cin 0-7 ats as div road favs s 07
Cle 1-3-1 under off mnf s 03
Series...su winner is 27-4 ats s 00
............dog is 12-2-1 ats in last 15 s 07
............home dogs are 6-0 ats s 07
............teams split ats wins 12 of last 15 years (cin cov 1st)
............games played in December averaged 32pts per game s 03
**teams off a su loss on mnf as a fav of 3+pts are 20-6 ats in next game if facing an opponent off a su win s 80

Jax at ten(2.5) 43.5...
Jax 8-3-1 ats as div road dogs s 11
Jax 14-3 ats in game 12 of reg sea s 99
Ten 2-7 ats as div home favs s 10
Series...jax is 8-1-1 ats in last 10 games
...........su winner is 26-4-1 ats s 00

Bal at mia(3.5) 42...
Bal 1-11 ats off a mnf road game s 05
Bal 11-3 ats as a dog in 2nd of b2b road games s 99
Mia 0-7 ats at home after playing nyj s 06
Mia 7-23 ats as a fav off a su loss s 04
Mia 13-5 over in 1st of 2 or more home games s 07

Sea(2) at min 42.5...
Sea 9-1 su and ats in game 12 of reg sea s 05
Sea 11-3 ats after scoring and allowing 30+pts s 98
Min 2-8-1 ats after allowing 10pts or less s 02

Ari(4) at st.lou 42.5...
Ari 1-5 ats as div road favs s 09
Stl 7-2 ats as div home dogs s 11
Stl 10-3 over after playing afc s 11
Series...su winner is 14-2 ats in last 16 games s 07
...........team who cov 1st game, covered 2nd last 4 straight years (stl cov 1st)

Atl at tb(1.5) 46...
Atl 0-5 ats as div road dogs s 11
Tb 6-2 ats as div home favs s 07
Series...favs are 7-2-1 ats in last 10 and 13-5-1 ats s 06

Nyj(2.5) at nyg 45.5...
Nyg 16-4 ats after playing wash s 02
Nyg 17-2 ats as dogs vs afc east (13-0 ats if dogs of 3.5pts or more)
Nyg 9-2-2 over before playing mnf s 05

Car(6.5) at n.orl 50...
Car 16-29-1 under as a fav s 09
No 3-9 ats at home before playing tb s 94
No 13-3 ats as dogs of 7+pts s 00 (check game time line)
Series..the road team covered 21 of last 28 games s 01
...........road favs are 8-2 ats s 02
...........teams split ats wins in 10 of last 13 years s 02 (no cov 1st)
...........when posted total is 50+pts the over is 6-1 s 08

Den(3.5) at sd 43.5...
Den 10-1 ats as div road favs s 09
Sd 0-3 ats as div home dogs s 13
Series...the road team is 10-2-1 ats s 09
...........road favs are 6-0-1 ats s 03
**teams who upset defending champs as a dog are 5-19-1 ats on the road in next game if they're priced from a fav to a 4pt dog s 80

Kc(3) at oak 44...
Series...the road team is 18-6 ats s 03
............favs of 3pts or less are 3-9-1 ats s 00
............the dog covered 12 of last 16 s 07
............su winner is 19-1 ats s 05
............only 1 of last 18 games exceeded 44 total pts s 06

Phi at ne(7.5) 49...
Phi 10-3 ats after allowing 40+pts s 95
Phi 9-3 over in game 12 of reg sea s 03

Ind at pit(7.5) 49...
Ind 16-7-2 ats in 1st of b2b road games s 03
Ind 17-7 ats before playing jax s 03
Pit 2-14 ats as favs before playing cin s 04

Dal as was(4) 41.5...
Dal 4-11 ats on the road after thanksgiving game s 97
Was 1-11 ats at home on mnf s 00
Series...dog covered 21 of last 30 s 00
............was covered 8 of last 10 and 15 of last 20 s 05

Extra points

Chi 0-8 ats in game 12 of reg sea s 07
Buf 15-2 ats off a su road loss s 12

Remember, just interesting reading to kill time before the games....

 

[adub034]

Thanks again for all the work you put in with this!

 

[Cooper22]

7 plays this weekend then...right?

Just came across this, is there a rating on these? And do we take or go against these? Thanks

 

[sparticus]

Bump

 

[Daigo23]

The plays are:
Washington 4-1
Buffalo 7-2
Atlanta 4-2
Oakland 5-1
San Diego 5-1

Games that fit the system but not enough data are below
New Orleans 1-0
Philadelphia 1-0

 

[adub034]

the plays are:
washington 4-1
buffalo 7-2
atlanta 4-2
oakland 5-1
san diego 5-1

games that fit the system but not enough data are below
new orleans 1-0
philadelphia 1-0

bol game system followers!!!

 

[Daigo23]

I don't follow this system but do look at it to up my bets on games that match it