Week 13 #'s

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Week 13

Ari 123
At 115
Bal125
Buf 121
Car 114
Chi 112
Cin 126
Cle 113
Dal 121
Den 127
Det 119
GB 127
Hou 118
Ind 124
Jax 108
Kc 123
Mia 122
Min 114
Ne 133
No 120
Nyg 115
Nyj 109
Oak 112
Phi 123
Pit 119
Stl 119
SD 123
Sf 122
Sea 128
Tb 114
Ten 110
Was 111

Pts.....................home favorite......................road favorite...................home pick
1.......................wwwlwwl..............................lllllwlwlll.......................+1w
2........................wlwlwwll..............................lwww...............................
3........................pwllwlw...............................lllwww..........................-3l,-3l,-3w,-3l,-3w
4........................lwwllwl................................wlwlwl........................-4l
5........................lwwl...................................wpwllw.........................-5p
6........................llwllllww..............................wwwwll........................-6.5l,-6l,-6l
7........................lwl......................................wlwww........................-7w
8........................llwwwlww............................lwwwllww....................-8.5w
9........................lw......................................lwlll....................................
10......................wllwlw.................................lllwwlw.............................
11......................lwwl....................................wwll...................................
12......................lw.............................................................................
13......................www...................................w.......................................
14......................wwl.....................................lll..........................................
15......................lpw.....................................wwl....................................
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An unacceptable 2-4 week last week, look for a bounce back week 13..
I'm posting off my phone so if you see any errors, point them out, I'll post the plays shortly..this is tough.

GAME.
 

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G/9000............you and your family have a great thanksgiving............BOL this week end............indy
 

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Game, Happy Holidays to you & your family. Below are the teams I came up with. Let's see if I come close. Thanks!

Detroit
Phil
Ind
GMen
Pitt
Mia
 

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Philadelphia Eagles
Seattle Seaharks
New England Patriots
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
New York Giants
Pittsburgh Steelers
Miami Dolphins
 

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Thanx boys and back at'cha...
This weeks plays, the layout and t-day insights...

Week 13
Philadelphia 3-1
Indianapolis 3-0
Ny giants 4-1
Pittsburgh 9-2
Miami 1-0
Now the "what have you done lately" plays
Houston 5-3 (5-1 last 6)
Buffalo 5-3 (5-1 last 6)
Arizona 5-3 (5-2 last 7)
Be careful plays...
Seattle 4-2 (0-2 last 2)
New England 4-2 (0-2 last 2)

chi at det(7) 47.5...
Chi 3-10 ats as div rd dogs s 08
Chi 3-10-1 ats off b2b su wins vs opp off b2b su losses s 04
Det 6-2 ats as div home favs s 10
Det 1-9 su on t-day s 03 (1-8-1 ats)
Series..det covered 7 of last 8

Phi at dal(3) 55.5...
Phi 6-3 ats on the rd after scoring 35+pts s 08
Phi 11-3 ats as div rd dogs s 06
Phi 9-2 over in game 12 s 03
Dal 7-20 ats as div home favs s 04
Dal 5-23 under in 2nd of b2b div games s 96
Series..dogs covered 6 of last 8

Sea at sf(1) 40...
Sea 8-1 su and ats in game 12 s 05
Sf 2-6-1 ats as favs off a su win + ats loss s 02
Sf 0-6 under last 6 thur games
Series..home team is 7-2-1 ats last 10

GAME.
 

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Regular season, team on third b2b road game (Nati) and opponent winning % less than .400 (TB) from 2004

REG and pp:A and p:A and A and o:WP < 40 and season >= 2004
ATS:
11-4-0 (2.30, 73.3%)
avg line: -0.4
O/U:
11-4-0 (1.97, 73.3%)
avg total: 42.3

To get more specific, I run the same, but adding team (Nati) has winning % better than .600 vs .400 team (TB) s04
REG and pp:A and p:A and A and t:WP > 60 and o:WP < 40 and season >= 2004
ATS:
3-1-0 (-4.50, 75.0%)
avg line: -6.5
O/U:
3-1-0 (-3.00, 75.0%)
avg total: 41.5
 

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Regular season and team on b2b road game since 2004
ATS:
412-316-16 (1.25, 56.6%)
Regular season and team on b2b road game since 2009
ATS:
222-176-7 (0.90, 55.8%)
Regular season and team on b2b road game in 2014
SU:
24-19-0 (-1.74, 55.8%)
ATS:
23-20-0 (-0.14, 53.5%)
O/U:
26-16-1 (1.16, 61.9%)


The same, but adding first road game ATS win (above we don't care first game DOG or FAV and win ATS or not)
Regular season and team on b2b road game but first road game as DOG and win ATS since 2004
ATS:
138-92-7 (2.16, 60.0%)
Regular season and team on b2b road game but first road game as DOG and win ATS since 2009
ATS:
72-45-5 (1.66, 61.5%)
Regular season and team on b2b road game but first road game as DOG and win ATS since 2014
REG and p:AD and p:ATSW and A and season >= 2014
SU:
8-5-0 (1.00, 61.5%)
ATS:
9-4-0 (3.42, 69.2%)
avg line: 2.4
O/U:
7-6-0 (0.81, 53.8%)
avg total: 44.8

Now we take a look at first game as DOG, win ATS and second game in DOG position again
Since 2004
ATS:
103-66-5 (2.45, 60.9%)
Since 2009
ATS:
50-33-4
Since 2014
SU:
5-5 (50%)
ATS:
6-4 (60.9)


All of above relate to Browns, Bengals, Redskin, Dolphins game.
 

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First road game DOG and win ATS, now road game FAVOR since 2004 (Natiz and Finz)
REG and p:AD and p:ATSW and AF and season >= 2004
SU:38-21-0 (5.54, 64.4%)Teaser Records
ATS:33-24-2 (1.53, 57.9%) avg line: -4.0+6: 40-17-2 (70.2%) -6: 22-37-0 (37.3%)
O/U:29-29-1 (0.08, 50.0%) avg total: 41.9+6: 17-41-1 (29.3%) -6: 39-19-1 (67.2%)

Since 2009
REG and p:AD and p:ATSW and AF and season >= 2009
SU:22-11-0 (8.27, 66.7%)Teaser Records
ATS:21-11-1 (3.82, 65.6%) avg line: -4.5+6: 23-9-1 (71.9%) -6: 14-19-0 (42.4%)
O/U:15-18-0 (-1.76, 45.5%) avg total: 42.7+6: 9-23-1 (28.1%) -6: 20-13-0 (60.6%)

Since 2014
REG and p:AD and p:ATSW and AF and season >= 2014
SU:3-0-0 (7.67, 100.0%)Teaser Records
ATS:3-0-0 (3.67, 100.0%) avg line: -4.0+6: 3-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 1-2-0 (33.3%)
O/U:1-2-0 (-0.17, 33.3%) avg total: 43.8+6: 1-2-0 (33.3%) -6: 2-1-0 (66.7%)

All of above, we look at last 10 years, last 5 years, and what we have done lately this year.
 

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This is relate to Minnesota - Carolina game

Teams who lost last 4+ games and winning % less than .400 and rest more than 12 days, now is Away Dog from 1992, 2001, 2006.

REG and WP < 40 and rest > 12 and AD and n:AD and ppppp:L and pppp:L and ppp:L and pp:L and p:L and season >= 1992
SU:
0-3-0 (-4.67, 0.0%)
ATS:
3-0-0 (7.17, 100.0%)
avg line: 11.8
O/U:
1-2-0 (4.00, 33.3%)
avg total: 41.3

REG and WP < 40 and pppp:L and ppp:L and pp:L and p:L and rest > 12 and AD and season >= 2001
SU:
5-6-0 (-4.82, 45.5%)
ATS:
8-3-0 (6.14, 72.7%)
avg line: 11.0
O/U:
7-4-0 (6.27, 63.6%)
avg total: 42.7

REG and WP < 40 and ppp:L and pp:L and p:L and rest > 12 and AD and season >= 2006

SU:
6-6-1 (-2.62, 50.0%)
ATS:
10-3-0 (7.92, 76.9%)
avg line: 10.5
O/U:
9-4-0 (4.81, 69.2%)
avg total: 42.6
 

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REG and p:AD and p:ATSW and AF and season >= 2014
SU:
3-0-0 (7.67, 100.0%)
ATS:
3-0-0 (3.67, 100.0%)
avg line: -4.0
O/U:
1-2-0 (-0.17, 33.3%)
avg total: 43.8
Week
Season
Team
Opp
Final
Line
Total
SUr
ATSr
OUr
3
2014
Cowboys
Rams
34-31
-1.5
45.0
W
W
O
8
2014
Dolphins
Jaguars
27-13
-6.5
42.5
W
W
U
11
2014
Fortyniners
Giants
16-10
-4.0
44.0
W
W
U
13
2014
Bengals
Buccaneers
-3.5
44.0
13
2014
Dolphins
Jets
-7.0
41.5



REG and p:AD and p:ATSW and AF and season >= 2007
SU:
29-13-0 (7.45, 69.0%)
ATS:
26-15-1 (3.17, 63.4%)
avg line: -4.3
O/U:
19-23-0 (-2.04, 45.2%)
avg total: 42.3
 

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REG and p:AD and p:ATSL and AF and season = 2014
SU:
4-0-0 (19.00, 100.0%)
ATS:
4-0-0 (16.50, 100.0%)
avg line: -2.5
O/U:
4-0-0 (8.00, 100.0%)
avg total: 46.5
Week
Season
Team
Opp
Final
Line
Total
SUr
ATSr
OUr
4
2014
Packers
Bears
38-17
-1.5
50.5
W
W
O
6
2014
Ravens
Buccaneers
48-17
-3.5
44.0
W
W
O
8
2014
Texans
Titans
30-16
-3.0
43.0
W
W
O
9
2014
Eagles
Texans
31-21
-2.0
48.5
W
W
O
13
2014
Cardinals
Falcons
-2.5
44.0
 

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Week 13 insights

Ten at hou(7) 42.5...
Hou 5-2-1 ats as div home favs s 10
Series..hou covered 6 of last 7

Cle at buf(3.5) 42...
**home teams who scored 35+Pts vs visitors on 2nd straight road game have went 32-12 over a 91

Nyg(3) at jax 45...
Jax 13-3 ats in game 12 s 99
**team who had a bye 2 wks back, lost by 14+Pts last week and are at home this week vs a non-div Opp are 29-13 ats s 80

Oak at st.l(6) 42...
Oak 2-6 ats after hosting kc s 06
Oak 2-17-1 ats in last non-div road game s 93

No at pit(5) 54...
Pit 2-11 ats off a mnf road game s 98
Pit 1-13 ats as favs before playing cinn s 04

Car at min(2.5) 42...
Car 2-9 under off a bye s 03
**road dogs off a bye + 3 su losses are 27-12 ats s 80
**home favs off a su loss of 3pts or less who were 7+pt dogs last week are 16-30 ats s 89

Ari(1.5) at atl 44.5...
Ari 17-4 over after scoring less than 10pts s 02
Atl 4-13-1 ats in 2nd of b2b home games s 03

Ne at gb(3) 57.5...
Ne 11-3 ats as dogs s 09
Gb 8-2-1 ats before mnf s 06
Gb 0-10 under at home before mnf s 01

Den(1) at kc 49...
Den 7-1 ats as div road favs s 09
Series.. Home dogs are 13-4-1 ats s 81

Mia(6) at nyj 41.5...
Mia 1-6 ats on mnf s 09
Mia 7-21 ats as favs off a su loss s 04
Ny 7-2 ats as home dogs on mnf s 80

Extra points

Balt 1-9 ats off mnf road game s 05
Cinn 8-3-1 ats before hosting Pitt s 02

The #'s selections say Pitt this week, but the Pitt trends and the oak trends have been consistent killers...just saying.

GAME.

I'll be back tonight with info on the "20pt sb system"
Strange this year
 

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GAME post your paycheck play, I think this week is good, Thanksgiving spirit you know.
 

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