Week 13: Back in the Red

ofred · Nov 24, 2015

Geez, what a nightmare that Oklahoma game was. In control, and then Mayfield gets knocked out. Can't complain though because Boykin didn't play either. Trevor Knight, you're a veteran! Big game, play like you've been there before. Stoops: Did you think the Baylor game was the NC game? Overrated and arrogant.

1-3 on large plays, 0-2 on medium and 4-2 on small plays. Anyways…..

Small Play:

Ball St. +22.5 Bowling Green already in the MAC championship next week and the 2nd half would be a good time to rest some starters. Ball State's final game and at home. If Coach Lembo plays it up like THIS is their bowl game, then they'll at least get a good effort here. Last year, the Ball St. OL physically pushed around the BG defense, winning by 17. The whole OL returns and Lembo should stress being physical again. A bruising game could lead BG to not risk Matt Johnson and his 2 star receivers and other starters much past the 1st half. Ball State should be able to score on BG, but definitely has issues defensively. Ball does have a veteran squad with many seniors and juniors, and I think they cover here on their final college football game.

cashflow50 · Nov 24, 2015

gl fred.. i made myself a promise not to touch these mac teams on a weekday.

games im looking at are
Texas Tech, Navy, Tulsa, CMU, Pittsburgh, California and my fav Florida. Will narrow it down hopefully by tomorrow. Hope for your input on these. Thanks.

ofred · Nov 24, 2015

I'm already on Alabama -13 and Oregon -33.5 for large plays. Will write something later.

ofred · Nov 24, 2015

cashflow50 said:
gl fred.. i made myself a promise not to touch these mac teams on a weekday.

games im looking at are
Texas Tech, Navy, Tulsa, CMU, Pittsburgh, California and my fav Florida. Will narrow it down hopefully by tomorrow. Hope for your input on these. Thanks.

With Florida, you're getting a break on the line considering they're off 3 sub standard performances. It could easily be Florida - 4 or -5 IF they had played better the last 3 games. Florida seems to come through in the big games, and FSU has their own offensive issues. But, both teams are getting poor play from their QBs. I'd take the ML or wait until it maybe goes to +3.

cashflow50 · Nov 24, 2015

its beginning to look like a chalk week

cubsfn4ever · Nov 24, 2015

o fred said:
Geez, what a nightmare that Oklahoma game was. In control, and then Mayfield gets knocked out. Can't complain though because Boykin didn't play either. Trevor Knight, you're a veteran! Big game, play like you've been there before. Stoops: Did you think the Baylor game was the NC game? Overrated and arrogant.

1-3 on large plays, 0-2 on medium and 4-2 on small plays. Anyways…..

Small Play:

Ball St. +22.5 Bowling Green already in the MAC championship next week and the 2nd half would be a good time to rest some starters. Ball State's final game and at home. If Coach Lembo plays it up like THIS is their bowl game, then they'll at least get a good effort here. Last year, the Ball St. OL physically pushed around the BG defense, winning by 17. The whole OL returns and Lembo should stress being physical again. A bruising game could lead BG to not risk Matt Johnson and his 2 star receivers and other starters much past the 1st half. Ball State should be able to score on BG, but definitely has issues defensively. Ball does have a veteran squad with many seniors and juniors, and I think they cover here on their final college football game.

Ball State has done nothing on offense and doesn't seem to have a prayer of stopping BG. It's not a bruising game as BG is just driving the ball so easily. Maybe they still pull their starters in the 2nd half and we get a backdoor. Not sure why I keep betting on these crappy MAC schools.

ofred · Nov 25, 2015

o fred said:
I'm already on Alabama -13 and Oregon -33.5 for large plays. Will write something later.

Alabama -13 Got this Sunday and 13 was available on Monday. Not sure where the line is going but I think it could top 14. If you've watched the NO Saints play defense, then you can imagine about 4-5 of the Tide's defenders stepping right in and starting right away. This Alabama defense just seems heads above anything we've seen since….the Alabama defense of 3-4 years ago. And it seems to be getting better week by week. There is such depth there, too, that even when subbing or playing late in the game, the D looks the same. I can't see Auburn's offense doing much, and Bama's D will set up opportunities for field position and get an occasional turnover- helping Alabama score. Thank god for Jake Coker. He is supposedly the Tide's weak link, or at least their passing game. But if you've looked the last many weeks, it's not true. Coker has been an accurate passer(over 70% the past 6 games), and has been able to elude rushers and run in certain situations. But the perception that he's a mediocre QB keeps this line from being ridiculous.

The weaker QB is whoever Auburn throws out there. And RB Peyton Barber has been fading in recent weeks as a running threat. Jovan Robinson is the bigger threat, but he hasn't seen any defense remotely like Alabama's. Bama's warm up game last week with a FCS team was a good rest/ practice, and I think they are focused squarely on Auburn in this rivalry game, and as a roadblock to the NC. I remember them beating Auburn 49-0 and 42-14 back a few years ago when they were in a similar position.

ofred · Nov 25, 2015

cubsfn4ever said:
Ball State has done nothing on offense and doesn't seem to have a prayer of stopping BG. It's not a bruising game as BG is just driving the ball so easily. Maybe they still pull their starters in the 2nd half and we get a backdoor. Not sure why I keep betting on these crappy MAC schools.

Have to agree. Ball State with a senior/ junior laden squad, on their last game of the year at home, embarrassed themselves. The offense looked horrible vs. a weak BG D.

ofred · Nov 25, 2015

Oregon -33.5 This one is now at 35, but that wouldn't scare me off either. This will not be close. Marcus Mcmaryion, the Beaver latest starting QB, has had many trials already this year. OSU coach is basically giving him his 4th or 5th tryout in a game that the Beavs have no chance in. Mcmaryion is in because their original starter, Seth Collins, is injured (?) and in need of an attitude adjustment. His backup, Nick Mitchell, went 0-7 last week vs. UW, but really has had moments of some success. I'm hoping Mcmaryion stays in there because he looks lost and lacks much confidence when things go awry. Last week, he had some completions only after UW had a huge lead. Mcmaryion is everything you DON'T want in a QB. Autzen Friday will be a house of horrors for this poor kid.

The Beavers injury list is long, on the OL and on defense. But what makes this game really a Duck blowout is just how truly awful the Beavers defense is. And vs. this super quick, fast-paced Duck offense that is just humming at its peak, well, they should really cancel the game. Even with a huge lead, the Ducks 2nd stringers should flourish. I've watched the Beavs quite a bit, and I have only seen them be a competitive for a quarter here and a quarter there. They played Weber State close, and could have lost to San Jose if SJ's QB had not gotten injured. Prediction: Ducks up by the spread at halftime, so…...

I'll be all over Oregon 1H and team total when those come out Thursday. Oregon is ranked 17th, and deservedly so by their record. But, the way they're playing at this time, they could beat anyone except Alabama and Clemson. I WISH they could play Iowa or Oklahoma. The only thing keeping this spread under 40 is that Oregon hasn't beaten the Beavers by 35 or more for a while. However, their disparity has never been greater. OSU may be in the PAC 12, but really they are a bad Mt. West team- like Fresno or UNLV(maybe not as bad as Hawaii). What would the Ducks do to them in a meaningful game?

Eccocide · Nov 25, 2015

Hey Fred - just wanted to say win or lose, I always love reading your threads. Your a great contribution to the forum. GL this week!

Addicted2quack · Nov 25, 2015

o fred said:
Oregon -33.5 This one is now at 35, but that wouldn't scare me off either. This will not be close. Marcus Mcmaryion, the Beaver latest starting QB, has had many trials already this year. OSU coach is basically giving him his 4th or 5th tryout in a game that the Beavs have no chance in. Mcmaryion is in because their original starter, Seth Collins, is injured (?) and in need of an attitude adjustment. His backup, Nick Mitchell, went 0-7 last week vs. UW, but really has had moments of some success. I'm hoping Mcmaryion stays in there because he looks lost and lacks much confidence when things go awry. Last week, he had some completions only after UW had a huge lead. Mcmaryion is everything you DON'T want in a QB. Autzen Friday will be a house of horrors for this poor kid.

The Beavers injury list is long, on the OL and on defense. But what makes this game really a Duck blowout is just how truly awful the Beavers defense is. And vs. this super quick, fast-paced Duck offense that is just humming at its peak, well, they should really cancel the game. Even with a huge lead, the Ducks 2nd stringers should flourish. I've watched the Beavs quite a bit, and I have only seen them be a competitive for a quarter here and a quarter there. They played Weber State close, and could have lost to San Jose if SJ's QB had not gotten injured. Prediction: Ducks up by the spread at halftime, so…...

I'll be all over Oregon 1H and team total when those come out Thursday. Oregon is ranked 17th, and deservedly so by their record. But, the way they're playing at this time, they could beat anyone except Alabama and Clemson. I WISH they could play Iowa or Oklahoma. The only thing keeping this spread under 40 is that Oregon hasn't beaten the Beavers by 35 or more for a while. However, their disparity has never been greater. OSU may be in the PAC 12, but really they are a bad Mt. West team- like Fresno or UNLV(maybe not as bad as Hawaii). What would the Ducks do to them in a meaningful game?

The he full game spread scares me big time... I agree and concur with everything you've said about the civil war game but it's very likely the ducks will be playing guys who are 3rd-4th string , redshirt seniors who never play, and probably non scholarship guys who aren't on the travel squad.... Helfrich will not embarass the Beavers, he knows their situation. The starters will only play 1 half, some maybe only a quarter..... That's real talk..... I wouldn't expect to see Royce freeman for more than the first quarter. Vernon Adams may play a full half but it really depends on the score.... I don't expect to see any familiar names on the field after the second quarter.

The Beavers won't quit, neither will all the ducks seniors and practice team guys who haven't got a chance to play all year... The second half will be ugly football... The first half spread will be the play for sure and even a first quarter bet may be a great play if it's less than -14. I'd hammer that and a first half of -21 or less.

i could see Oregon winning by 30 tho after their 4th string and practice squad guys give up 2 garbage time tds....

i wish you all the best tho with your -33.5.

ofred · Nov 25, 2015

The Beavers have 17 players out and 3 that are questionable, and with their depth issues, I'll take the Duck 2nd and 3rd stringers vs. what the Beavs have left. I will be all over the 1Q and 1H, but if you've watched the Beavers in the 4Q when they're getting stomped, they don't really play a back door cover team.

Helfrich will lay them out 1st half, and maybe the start of the 3Q, but even HE can't stop his backups from playing hard. The Ducks depth is sooo far superior to the Beavers, that I can see Oregon winning the 2nd half too- although slightly. I'm predicting about -24 1st half line when it comes out. But if you've seen these two teams play, it's very possible the Ducks lead by 40-45 at the half. The Beavers chances on a 1H cover hinge on lots of luck(possible, but not probable), and Oregon TOs. I'd say about a 20% chance of those things happening.

ofred · Nov 25, 2015

Eccocide said:
Hey Fred - just wanted to say win or lose, I always love reading your threads. Your a great contribution to the forum. GL this week!

Thanks. Win or lose, I at least can shoot my mouth off pretty well….

indiana · Nov 25, 2015

Fred...........BOL with your week end action..........you and your family have a great thanksgiving...........indy

ofred · Nov 26, 2015

indiana said:
Fred...........BOL with your week end action..........you and your family have a great thanksgiving...........indy

Thanks and the best to your family too.

ofred · Nov 26, 2015

o fred said:
Oregon -33.5 This one is now at 35, but that wouldn't scare me off either. This will not be close. Marcus Mcmaryion, the Beaver latest starting QB, has had many trials already this year. OSU coach is basically giving him his 4th or 5th tryout in a game that the Beavs have no chance in. Mcmaryion is in because their original starter, Seth Collins, is injured (?) and in need of an attitude adjustment. His backup, Nick Mitchell, went 0-7 last week vs. UW, but really has had moments of some success. I'm hoping Mcmaryion stays in there because he looks lost and lacks much confidence when things go awry. Last week, he had some completions only after UW had a huge lead. Mcmaryion is everything you DON'T want in a QB. Autzen Friday will be a house of horrors for this poor kid.

The Beavers injury list is long, on the OL and on defense. But what makes this game really a Duck blowout is just how truly awful the Beavers defense is. And vs. this super quick, fast-paced Duck offense that is just humming at its peak, well, they should really cancel the game. Even with a huge lead, the Ducks 2nd stringers should flourish. I've watched the Beavs quite a bit, and I have only seen them be a competitive for a quarter here and a quarter there. They played Weber State close, and could have lost to San Jose if SJ's QB had not gotten injured. Prediction: Ducks up by the spread at halftime, so…...

I'll be all over Oregon 1H and team total when those come out Thursday. Oregon is ranked 17th, and deservedly so by their record. But, the way they're playing at this time, they could beat anyone except Alabama and Clemson. I WISH they could play Iowa or Oklahoma. The only thing keeping this spread under 40 is that Oregon hasn't beaten the Beavers by 35 or more for a while. However, their disparity has never been greater. OSU may be in the PAC 12, but really they are a bad Mt. West team- like Fresno or UNLV(maybe not as bad as Hawaii). What would the Ducks do to them in a meaningful game?

Oregon 1H -21.5 Thought this would be about 24 considering the 35.5 spread. Another large play. QB Mcmaryion gets one qtr. to prove himself- according to their OC. Nothing like more pressure on this already shaky kid.

ofred · Nov 26, 2015

Small Play(on the high side):

Navy -4 I'd be playing this for more if I hadn't waited. Now that the line is 4, it's not as a tempting. Navy is still a very good play. Houston has a mess of issues. 4 out of their 5 OL that were penciled as starters to begin the year are out. Both QBs are banged up, although Ward will play on his gimpy ankle. Supposedly he was 70% last week, and now is playing off a short week. Also, top RB Kenneth Farrow will likely not play with a foot injury. His backup, Ryan Jackson, is out. Then you have the persistent rumors of Coach Herman leaving to about 4-5 other schools. Herman called his players together and said that you can't believe what you read on the internet, BUT he didn't promise them he'd be staying (I doubt he does). He also didn't sign the new contract approved by the admin. that would up his salary while staying at UH. Distractions, injuries, a perfect season kaput, and now a very good Navy team.

I think Navy wears down UH here, and even has some passing opportunities vs. a crummy UH pass defense. Preparing for the Navy triple option on a short week is tough enough, but what's really little talked about is how good this Navy defense is. Possibly their best defense in a decade or more. Last week held a good Tulsa offense to 250 yards until garbage time. Held Memphis to 20 points at Memphis. Held USF to 270 yards, while USF has been steamrolling other teams. Their only blemish is a 17 point loss to ND when Navy had them tied before half, and then turned the ball over 3 times to seal the loss. With UH's run game so compromised, I think we'll see a struggling offense. Navy is disciplined and is playing for a rare New Year's bowl game.

ofred · Nov 26, 2015

A tidbit on the Oregon/ OSU game: The Beavers last 3 losses (Cal, UCLA, UW) could have been a whole lot worse if the opposing coaches didn't pull on the reins in the 2nd half of each game. UW's Petersen, having a 52-7 lead in the 3rd qtr, really made an effort not to score again. Same with Mora in the UCLA game. With a 41-0 lead in the 3rd, Mora emptied the benches. Only Cal kept playing until the 4th qtr- but then began to run consistently to run out the clock. I've been watching the Beavs for 25 years, and have never seen their QB play or defense anywhere close to this bad. With OL injuries, the run game has also suffered. Good reason to play that 1H Ducks, which I just talked myself into upping a little more...

ofred · Nov 27, 2015

o fred said:
Small Play(on the high side):

Navy -4 I'd be playing this for more if I hadn't waited. Now that the line is 4, it's not as a tempting. Navy is still a very good play. Houston has a mess of issues. 4 out of their 5 OL that were penciled as starters to begin the year are out. Both QBs are banged up, although Ward will play on his gimpy ankle. Supposedly he was 70% last week, and now is playing off a short week. Also, top RB Kenneth Farrow will likely not play with a foot injury. His backup, Ryan Jackson, is out. Then you have the persistent rumors of Coach Herman leaving to about 4-5 other schools. Herman called his players together and said that you can't believe what you read on the internet, BUT he didn't promise them he'd be staying (I doubt he does). He also didn't sign the new contract approved by the admin. that would up his salary while staying at UH. Distractions, injuries, a perfect season kaput, and now a very good Navy team.

I think Navy wears down UH here, and even has some passing opportunities vs. a crummy UH pass defense. Preparing for the Navy triple option on a short week is tough enough, but what's really little talked about is how good this Navy defense is. Possibly their best defense in a decade or more. Last week held a good Tulsa offense to 250 yards until garbage time. Held Memphis to 20 points at Memphis. Held USF to 270 yards, while USF has been steamrolling other teams. Their only blemish is a 17 point loss to ND when Navy had them tied before half, and then turned the ball over 3 times to seal the loss. With UH's run game so compromised, I think we'll see a struggling offense. Navy is disciplined and is playing for a rare New Year's bowl game.

A medium play now at -1 (doubling my play). Navy has the best DL they've ever had, and against this injury ravaged OL of Houston, and an injured QB, I like it a lot at -1.

ofred · Nov 27, 2015

Sorry about the Navy play. Houston is just clicking on everything they do.

Small Play:

Wash. St. +8 Liking what I hear about the Wazzu QB, Peyton Bender. Quick release should help vs. the Husky rush. He's gotten plenty of reps all year, and with the improved Wazzu defense this year. I think they keep it close. UW has only dominated vs. really bad teams like the Beavers. WSU has a decent chance to win here.