Week 12

[OverThinker]

9-5 +500 since beginning to post here 2 weeks ago..

det-2.5 (2x).. was on minny last week as at home against a turnover machine like palmer I expected the defense to once again make plays, Vikings have to have points out of the defense and special teams. Bradford reverting back to his old self when playing behind a suspect oline hearing footsteps even when he has time. The offense a disaster and the defense won't be making plays to bail them out against Stafford who been incredibly careful with the ball. This division is ripe for the taking and the team with the best qb in the north takes firm control of it on thanksgiving..

skins +7 (2x).. been burnt against dal last few weeks and while I would like to just get out of their way I just can't do it here. This the same number they laid to a pathetic Ravens offense last week. Cousins and co will put up plenty of points on boys suspect d.

Ill post rest of card and some more thoughts on these games later, in a rush just wanted to get these in while the numbers were to my liking. GL and happy thanksgiving to everyone..

 

[KingEleven]

BOL this week!

 

[OverThinker]

Thank you sir. GL to you as well and happy thanksgiving!

1 down 1 to go.. freaking skins and their red zone struggles, 2 trips inside 20 and 3 damn points to show for it. This team could be a real threat in playoffs if they could figure out how to score inside 20. Makes no sense they struggle in close with those 2 beast te's! Ugh

 

[OverThinker]

2-0 +400 on day

bringing posted record to 11-5 +900.. Sunday's card coming shortly..

 

[OverThinker]

Jags+7.5..(1.5x).. probably going unnoticed on count of bortles and the offense stinking the jags d has been playing good football lately. They playing well enough where the offense has had more 1st downs than their last 3 opponents by a wide margin and have been enjoying a nice time of possession edge. Bills offense is incredibly banged up, while shady will probably play he just had surgery on his thumb, his backup has bad hammy, Watkins close to returning but even if he plays this week not likely to see a lot of work and the wr corp is depleted. Jags defense playing good enough to keep them in it, hopefully bortles doesn't do too much scoring for bills with pick 6's. I think jags can hang throughout but even if not bortles the king of garbage time so getting more than one score leaves strong likelihood of a back door even if bills control the game..

 

[OverThinker]

Jags+7.5..(1.5x).. probably going unnoticed on count of bortles and the offense stinking the jags d has been playing good football lately. They playing well enough where the offense has had more 1st downs than their last 3 opponents by a wide margin and have been enjoying a nice time of possession edge. Bills offense is incredibly banged up, while shady will probably play he just had surgery on his thumb, his backup has bad hammy, Watkins close to returning but even if he plays this week not likely to see a lot of work and the wr corp is depleted. Jags defense playing good enough to keep them in it, hopefully bortles doesn't do too much scoring for bills with pick 6's. I think jags can hang throughout but even if not bortles the king of garbage time so getting more than one score leaves strong likelihood of a back door even if bills control the game..

Sea/Tampa ov 45 (1x).. bucs weak pass defense has had a break their last 2 games getting to face teams incapable of exploiting this very beatable unit who is among the bottom of league in yards per completion allowed. No such luck this week as Wilson and sea offense comes in hitting their stride lighting up much better defensive units than this bucs d the last 3 weeks. Wilson will slice and dice this secondary for one chunk play after another just as all the good passing attacks have when playing bucs, expect sea to score between 27-31 here.. that leaves us just needing bucs to score 17-20 at most to get over this number. The downside to sea new offensive approach is it leaves their defense on the field quite a bit. Bucs have one of the better ball control offenses in the league and I expect them to be able to grind sea defense down. Jamis and co won't go down without a fight and shouldn't have a problem getting to 20 points. It might take till later in the game but I expect this to sail over the number..

 

[OverThinker]

2 team 6 point teaser. 1.65 to win 1.5

hou+8.5/saints-1.5

been holding out hope hou gets to +3 but really like this option more. Majority of sd games come down to the final 2 minutes so pushing this spread over a td I think is incredibly valuable. Despite Brock being terrible hou is undefeated at home and this has makings of low scoring affair where points should be at a premium.

Not much needs to be said bout 2nd half. It the saints at home vs the lowly lambs and a rookie qb. Maybe gurley has some success and lambs keep it somewhat close but no way do I see them beating Brees and co in the dome..

 

[OverThinker]

really feel like fading some these big line moves be the right play this week. Surely books knew when opening titans as such small favs they were gonna get a lot of ten action? as tough as it is to consider laying money on bears I did do it successfully last week and just don't believe books were this far off with the line. Leaning strongly to bears just not sure I can pull trigger.

Same feeling w zona who has been pushed from +3 to 4.5. Last week they were a easy play against as they a play against team for me anytime they face a strong defensive front. That really not the case this week so I suspect they will put up a good amount of points vs a shaky atl defense. Think this a game that isn't decided till the final drive making the points very appealing.

Texans are another one but think I'm content having them in teaser..

for now just leans but I certainly wouldn't take the favs with these inflated lines.,

 

[tulah]

Hey OverThinker
great job on Thursday :toast:


im out in SoCal and we get the Chargers and Rams every week.

I don't think the Chargers match up good. Houston had Raiders offense stumped for 3 and 3/4 qtrs of the game.
Chargers got lots of injuries , they are young , & they are basically out of playoff contention. Houston has won at home all year.
S.D is no juggernaut , it's pass Def has been terrible. Bad enough that Osweiler can take advantage Houston grinds out a ugly win.

I think Arizona gets the cover. Palmer to Fitz, and Johnson all day. That is a good recipe to keep this game close.
my only concern with AZ is they are basically eliminated from playoff contention , will they be flat or will they come compete.
Atlanta Def has been below avg all year. Arizona has enough offensive weapons to trade scores with ATL.

LA Rams +7.5 or more are a great value play.
Rams Defense can slow down Saints. The Rookie QB just needs to hand the ball over to Gurley and I think Rams break 24-28 pts range.


Best of luck
:toast:

 

[powerz]

Good read all round over thinker .

Gl on Sunday

 

[OverThinker]

Hey OverThinker
great job on Thursday :toast:


im out in SoCal and we get the Chargers and Rams every week.

I don't think the Chargers match up good. Houston had Raiders offense stumped for 3 and 3/4 qtrs of the game.
Chargers got lots of injuries , they are young , & they are basically out of playoff contention. Houston has won at home all year.
S.D is no juggernaut , it's pass Def has been terrible. Bad enough that Osweiler can take advantage Houston grinds out a ugly win.

I think Arizona gets the cover. Palmer to Fitz, and Johnson all day. That is a good recipe to keep this game close.
my only concern with AZ is they are basically eliminated from playoff contention , will they be flat or will they come compete.
Atlanta Def has been below avg all year. Arizona has enough offensive weapons to trade scores with ATL.

LA Rams +7.5 or more are a great value play.
Rams Defense can slow down Saints. The Rookie QB just needs to hand the ball over to Gurley and I think Rams break 24-28 pts range.


Best of luck
:toast:

My only real concern w hou and why I choose teasing them over a straight bet is the chargers run defense has been really strong and I simply don't trust Brock even against a bad pass d.

Honestly I think rams get run out of the dome, saints defense has been much better this season and while I think gurley outta have solid game there no way I see la putting up that many points, really doubt they crack 20 but I been wrong before!! Also word is rams have had a bug going around all week so fatigue could be a issue for them with lot of guys dealing w illness.. I have it 27-17 saints but I just need them to win so if lambs do keep it closer it won't break my heart.

pretty sure zona would only be a game out of the second wild card spot with a win. I don't think they are a gonna make the playoffs but motivation shouldn't be a factor. My biggest concern w them is I don't trust palmer , I think he bout done playing qb in this league as age and injuries have taken there toll. Atl defense is not good tho and if trufant can't go I think cards can get around 27-28 points which should be plenty to stay within the spread..over has some appeal here as well..

thanks for stopping in and GL this week!

 

[OverThinker]

Havnt been on wrong side of many moves thus far but was way off taking jags early it appears. Ugh..I seriously don't get why folks willing to lay more than a td with bills against a solid defense?

 

[OverThinker]

Zona/atl ov 49 (1x)..I made this number 52 so line drop has created enough margin for me to play it..

 

[OverThinker]

So far so good, jags with strong start. No defense in atl. Tough start for saints but not worried there. Hou/sd couldn't be going any better having hou teased to 8.5. Hopefully it all continues! (Gonna regret not playing lean on bears!)

 

[OverThinker]

You were spot on about the lambs offense tulah, I really didn't see that coming. Woulda been a easy over had I believed it as didn't think lambs d was gonna slow Brees down much, straight up video game in the big easy! Lol..

little worried bout hou half of the teaser, like I said Brock freaking sucks even against poor pass defenses! Ugh

 

[sunshine11]

GL on the late play. Over Seahawks. I think we will go to the playoffs. Lololol. We win by default of the other teams.

 

[OverThinker]

GL on the late play. Over Seahawks. I think we will go to the playoffs. Lololol. We win by default of the other teams.

You referring to sea? Hell I think they just about have the pitiful west locked up! Doesn't really matter what division they in tho, they the best team in the NFC not named dal and think dal/sea NFC championship will be a hell of a game, another high scoring affair id imagine.

 

[OverThinker]

Cash the over in atl (paid off to wait on 49!!), other games coming down to wire.

 

[OverThinker]

Should have taken my own advice and not trusted Brock, he so bad can't believe they paid him all that money! He somehow actually worse than the 4 scrubs who played qb for hou last year!! One more shot at garbage time score to cover the tease, lol.

 

[OverThinker]

Hou kicks a fg!! Bang!!