Week 12 with at least some writeups

[Michelangelo]

Starting here:

NY Jets +5 (@ Tenny) (sorry Dropsy)

10-0 SU. 9-1 ATS.

Yet this opening line of 5' is only the second highest line imposted to the Titantuans this season, despite the Jetskis being arguably the toughest opposition Tenny has faced. Are the books finally catching up?

Is the weight of a perfect season beginning to weigh on the Jack Daniels Boy's psyche? It took a near perfect second half last week to get the job done vs the undistinguished Jaguars. Tenny definately came out flat in that game.

The Pats of last year were an identical 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS before eeking one out, 31-28, as 24 point favs at home vs a 5-5 Philly team.

The weight of a perfect season will bust this wonderful pointspread record open. The linesmaker will catch up.

 

[Michelangelo]

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=4 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=msg vAlign=top width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff>Add: Miami + (waiting on this line before locking in)

This line opened at Miami -3. There has been tremendous bettor support for the Pats bringing the line all the way to Pats -1 as I type this. Should the Pats really be favored in Miami?

I think the world continues to view the Pats as a strong team. They haven'y forgotten last year's 16-0. They haven't forgotten NE's 6 playoff appearances in the past 7 years. They haven't forgotten the 4 Super Bowl appearances, with 3 wins. They haven't forgotten Billy B who is widely considered the best coach in the NFL. They are expecting him to drive his team to their Nov, Dec, Jan run. They ARE forgetting Tom Brady, and are believing in Matt Cassel, with his 400 yd performance and perfect game tying pass to Randy Moss as the clock ran out, fresh in their minds.

They are still remembering that Miami was 1-15 last year. They are aware that Miami hasn't beaten New England twice in one season since before Belichik began his incredible run with this team in '01. They are aware that the Pats haven't, in fact, lost two to anyone in the whole Division in that same timeframe. They are aware that Miami unleashed the wildcat to bite the Pats in their first encounter and are expecting Belichik to be fully prepared for that wily beast this time around. Speaking of Belichik, who is Miami's coach anyway? Some guy from the cast of the Sopranos? Truly he will need his whole football mafia to unseat the reigning don, Billy B. And who is their QB? A weak armed castoff from the Division rival Jets. Surely noone to fear.

In my humble opinion The Pats are certainly considered "strong" while the Fins are still considered "weak" despite each having 6-4 records.

I think bettor perception belies the reality of this season.

Miami at +7 is tied with the Packers and Giants for the fourth best turnover ratio in the NFL (Pats are 15th at +2).

Miami runs for 4.2 YPC, same as the Pats.

Miami has allowed 91 rushing yards per game. The Pats 104.

Pennington has a 93 passer rating. Cassel an 87.

The Pats have a 93 defensive passer rating. The Fins 86. (Higher is worse in this category).

Call me a quisling. I'll be on the Fins when the line settles. </TD></TR><TR><TD width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff colSpan=2><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD> </TD><TD align=right></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[jungular10]

I like the Jets play. I like your writeup on the Pats/Dolphins but I have to go the opposite way and back the Patriots.

Good luck.

 

[NumberFreak]

Hey buddy. Love your Jets pick. I'm playing against Tenny the rest of the way if I can. The only difference with the Pats last year was the spygate effect as well that wore them out down the stretch (still can't believe Spector brought it up again two days before the Super Bowl.

Re: the Dolphins-Pats. Are you worried about the revenge factor the Pats have going in? The Pats have not lost two in a row all year even without Tommy boy. I teased NE up to +8.5 last Monday from +2 so hope we both win this one.

I'm over here in the hockey forum (and our old place too). Yeah, I know...hockey!

 

[Michelangelo]

Best of luck to you Jungular.

Freak, Yea I'm worried. Hate pickin' against the homies. Think it all comes down to which Patriot D line shows up today. I think you know my feelings on Seymour. Expecting Ty Warren to be out again. I certainly am aware of the revenge factor here but I'm guessing the Fins are too and will be at least as hungry as the Pats to prove who's boss. I'm guessing Parcells had a word with 'em too. Should be a good one.

Hockey?! Well I did watch about 5 minutes of the Bruins game last night. Just enough to see Montreal tie it with about three minutes to go. I felt like a jynx and turned it off.

Hope ya kill 'em Bruce.

Add:

Oakland +9' (@ Denv)

14-1-1
Since '02 teams with back to back road games who covered the first and are dogs of a TD or more in the second are 14-1-1 ATS. Oakland is also 6-1 ATS as Divisional road dogs in their last seven.

 

[Michelangelo]

Add:

Philly + (@ Balty) (Waitin' on this line. Balty seems to be gettin' the $$$)

I think the public perception of Philly is at a season low after their 13-13 tie with dreadful Cincy, exacerbated by McNabb's ignorance of the overtime rule, and Philly's inability to beat the Bad Bengals even with the extra period thrown in.

While Baltimore is gaining traction with their hallmark very strong defense and a QB, Joe Flacco, who is proving that he is capable of moving the team.

Pinnacle is at -1 while 6 of the other 10 books are at 1'. 5Dimes, which also seems to be a very sharp book, is the only one at pick. Are the two sharp books inviting a play on the Ravens?

This is my Don Dollars pick of the week.

 

[Michelangelo]

Add:

Atlanta Pick (vs Car)

Despite having some pretty woeful teams, Atlanta is 14-6 SU against Division foe Carolina since '98. Bet that surprises ya. Surprised me. In all those years they only lost both seasonal games once, in '05. Carolina got the first one. It's Atlanta's turn. And, oh yea, I think Atlanta is the better team.

 

[Michelangelo]

Add:

Chicago -8 (@ St Louis)

Even a fatwa straight from the desert couldn't make these DeadBirds a winner here. They stink. Pew.

 

[Michelangelo]

Lockin' in the Philly and Dolphins lines now. Philly was +1' and now has turned around to +1. Lost value there. The Fins are +1'. I'll take that.

Add:

Seattle +3 (vs Was)

The Shehawks have been guzzlin' my money like it was free Starbucks day. But I'm confident that they're in a good spot today. Time to spit some back.

 

[manchild]

Lockin' in the Philly and Dolphins lines now. Philly was +1' and now has turned around to +1. Lost value there. The Fins are +1'. I'll take that.

Add:

Seattle +3 (vs Was)

The Shehawks have been guzzlin' my money like it was free Starbucks day. But I'm confident that they're in a good spot today. Time to spit some back.

ARe you saying that u lost value cause it went to -1? I see Philly +2 GL bro

 

[thecruncher]

Good luck, MA, I like 3 of the first 4 (no play on OAK/DEN for me)>

 

[Michelangelo]

Manchild, yep. I lost line value on both Philly and the Fins by lockin' in earlier this morning. Philly now +2. And the Fins also now +2. It's tricky business trying to predict line movement. I usually get it right more than I get it wrong. Not today.

For the record I got:

Philly +1
Miami +1'

Thanks Crunch. I couldn't ask for a better endorsement.

Best of luck to both you guys. After two consecutive lousy weeks I feel pretty good about today. Let's get 'em.